NHC - New Hope Corporation

[qldfrog]

Good morning
Re: NHC
New Corp Article published today 12/02/23
It never ends …

COAL MINE PROJECT HITS GREEN HURDLE

Michael Madigan

THE operators of a Queensland coal mine fear huge job losses are on the horizon as a 16-year approval process which appeared to be finalised last year hits another stumbling block.

New Hope, owner of the New Acland Coal Mine, has been hiring workers – many on six-figure salaries – at the site near Toowoomba since late last year and anticipates 100 will be at work by next month. But management fears the resurgence of mine activity which began after the state government approved the mine’s crucial water licence last October will soon grind to a halt after protesters, the Oakey Coal Action Alliance and Lock The Gate, requested that the government conduct an internal review of the granting of the water licence.
“We strongly believe, based on the expert evidence we have submitted, that the Queensland Water Department has made a shocking error of judgement by granting an Associated Water Licence to New Acland,” Coal Alliance secretary Paul King said.

New Hope management now fears the matter could return to the Land Court, where the issue could stagnate as green “lawfare’’ over the mine resumes.
“The Queensland government has scrutinised, critically assessed and approved New Acland (State 3),” a New Hope Group spokesman said.
“Green lawfare activists including Oakey Coal Action Alliance and Lock the Gate supported by the taxpayer-funded Environmental Defenders Office request-ed the internal review and will continue to oppose New Acland Stage 3 indefinitely and attempt to take the project back to the Land Court for the fourth time.”

Queensland Resources Council boss Ian Macfarlane said the approvals process had to have some end point.
“After taking more than a decade to finally approve the New Acland Stage 3 mine expansion, the Queensland government should be doing whatever it can to ensure the project now proceeds as quickly and smoothly as possible,” he said.

The QRC has already backed giving the mine “Prescribed Project” status, which would smooth the project’s path through the bureaucracy, but believes it is too far down the road for that classification to now be applicable.
“People have been responding enthusiastically to the permanent jobs being advertised, which is great news for the Oakey community and Darling Downs region,” Mr Macfarlane said.
“Any ongoing uncertainty around this project needs to be put to bed by the government so local people can feel confident about their future after so many years of uncertainty.”

The government says the internal review of the water licence matter should be completed by late March.

Not holding
Have regularly traded past 12 months

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1

I guess I will have to stop fighting the WEF and invest my coal focused long term OS.
You know ,companies like Adani?

 

[sptrawler]

I guess I will have to stop fighting the WEF and invest my coal focused long term OS.
You know ,companies like Adani?

Yes buying coal shares is a very big gamble in Australia, even the banks are reluctant to go near them.
It will be interesting to see how Australia looks, when this massive cultural shift finishes.
Time will tell.

Indonesia to build coal plants despite $20b deal on clean energy transition

JAKARTA — Indonesia will continue building new coal-fired power plants, despite a recent $20 billion deal with the G7 group of industrialized countries to help it transition to clean energy. Activists say this puts the deal, known as the Just Energy Transition Partnership and signed at the G20...

news.mongabay.com

 

[sptrawler]

I guess I will have to stop fighting the WEF and invest my coal focused long term OS.
You know ,companies like Adani?

One wonders if the lifting of China's bans of Australian coal, is more about trying to lock in contracts before Australian coal mining is shut down permanently, more than warming politics.
There is a huge difference between China refusing to buy or products and us telling them they can't purchase them, I wouldn't be surprised if China doesn't try and take over a major coal miner in Australia, IMO it would make sense.
Let's be honest, we don't want it and want to close it down and they want the coal.
Win/Win for China pick up a stranded asset, at a bargain basement price, then own the product. ?
Another interesting thing in the article was the picture of the coal power station, it shows how seriously China takes emissions, the chimney stacks(red/white stripped) are showing a lot of smoke which would indicate they don't even use precipitators, which all our coal stations have to by law.
The smoke emitting at the bottom left of the photo is steam.

Chinese firms restart coal supply talks with Australian miners

Expectations are building across the sector that a complete lifting of the trade ban is possible within weeks.

www.theage.com.au

Australia’s coal exports, including metallurgical and thermal coal, are now forecast to earn more than $132 billion across 2022-23, overtaking iron ore as Australia’s top export.

However, the longer-term outlook for Australia’s coal industry remains deeply uncertain as countries across the world speed up plans to move away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels and embrace cleaner sources of energy.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening,
New Hope posted underlying EBITDA of $448.1m in its April quarter – up 14.8 per cent on the previous quarter and 20.6 per cent on the same quarter last year. It comes as looks to restart coal sales into China.
3.5% SP gain today (23/05/23)

Intell:
Macquarie rated the stock a neutral following the update with a 12-month target price of $5.40. Analysts noted that falling thermal coal prices and inflationary pressures posed a headwind for the miner in the year ahead and that recent legal action was a risk to the timing and ramp-up of the restart at New Acland stage 3.

Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

Good evening,
New Hope posted underlying EBITDA of $448.1m in its April quarter – up 14.8 per cent on the previous quarter and 20.6 per cent on the same quarter last year. It comes as looks to restart coal sales into China.
3.5% SP gain today (23/05/23)

Intell:
Macquarie rated the stock a neutral following the update with a 12-month target price of $5.40. Analysts noted that falling thermal coal prices and inflationary pressures posed a headwind for the miner in the year ahead and that recent legal action was a risk to the timing and ramp-up of the restart at New Acland stage 3.

Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1

NHC has already shifted it's headquarters south of the border ( to NSW )

i think NHC will turn the QLD operations ( including the oil production ) into a minor subsidiary and maybe into a spin-off

am currently sitting 'cash neutral ' in NHC ( no investment cash at risk )

would consider adding sub $2 ( previously i bought between $3.30 down to $1.12 )

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
8.6% SP gain today (08/06/23).
Newcastle coal futures for delivery in July rose 2 per cent to $US141.85 a tonne. Nice.

Not holding.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

New Hope cut to Underperform; $4.50 target: Macquarie

Very interesting indeed.

Have a very nice day today.
Not Holding.

Kind regards
rcw1

Good evening,
New Hope posted underlying EBITDA of $448.1m in its April quarter – up 14.8 per cent on the previous quarter and 20.6 per cent on the same quarter last year. It comes as looks to restart coal sales into China.
3.5% SP gain today (23/05/23)

Intell:
Macquarie rated the stock a neutral following the update with a 12-month target price of $5.40. Analysts noted that falling thermal coal prices and inflationary pressures posed a headwind for the miner in the year ahead and that recent legal action was a risk to the timing and ramp-up of the restart at New Acland stage 3.

Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

am holding but don't think $4.50 would lure me to add more

maybe a change of Federal and QLD government would do it but don't hold your breath above $2.50 for me

 

[houtman]

A 30c ff divie for NHC.
It gives a total of 70c fully franked for the fy.

Positives for the year for me-
- cleaned up convertible note overhang
- share buyback
- solid div
- Ackland 3 going ahead after 13 years of argie-bargie
- production outlook positive

It’s just a hold for me, happy with management atm.
Hopefully they continue to maximise shareholder returns and don’t go looking for inorganic growth.

 

[divs4ever]

Hopefully they continue to maximise shareholder returns and don’t go looking for inorganic growth.

while i agree , stay alert BHP has some Australian coal assets up for sale , WHC has shown interest but is not alone checking out the deal

i hold NHC , WHC , and BHP

 

[houtman]

Yes, it's the ever-present concern with cash generators.

I originally held both NHC and WHC, but was happier with NHC's capital management outlook.

NHC should increase their production by about 50% the next couple of years without much capital expended, so plenty of organic growth.

Old man Millner should help keep them focused.

 

[divs4ever]

i have had a VERY good run with WHC ( taken out at least twice the cash invested , yet still hold some )

NHC is more of an investment stock while WHC moves around for a medium term trade/accumulate strategy ( or a long term channel trade )

i still like the NHC Bridgeport Energy asset as a nice touch of diversity

 

[eskys]

CommSec

@CommSec
·
1h

Shares of New Hope Corporation $NHC fall as much as 9.4% to $5.86, hitting their lowest since April 17. Company announces FY fully franked dividend of 21 cents per share and special dividend of 9 cents per share.

 

[DrBourse]

NHC still has a bit more to fall IMO - $4-00 looks abt right 2 me..

 

[eskys]

NHC still has a bit more to fall IMO - $4-00 looks abt right 2 me..

I was wondering if it was spooked by S32's announcement today?

I don't hold NHC or S32




CommSec
@CommSec
·
7h

Diversified miner South32 $S32 posted an 18% drop in first-quarter metallurgical coal output on Monday, as production was affected by operational disruptions.

 

[houtman]

I was wondering if it was spooked by S32's announcement today?

I don't hold NHC or S32



View attachment 164463
CommSec
@CommSec
·
7h

Diversified miner South32 $S32 posted an 18% drop in first-quarter metallurgical coal output on Monday, as production was affected by operational disruptions.

NHC did a similar price drop last divie as well.

17/4/23 they went ex-divie for a 40c dividend but dropped 55c on the day.

The next qtly will be interesting though, the coal price looks to have stabilized, so that along with the latest cost figures should give a clearer picture.

 

[eskys]

NHC did a similar price drop last divie as well.

17/4/23 they went ex-divie for a 40c dividend but dropped 55c on the day.

The next qtly will be interesting though, the coal price looks to have stabilized, so that along with the latest cost figures should give a clearer picture.

Well, what do we know? It's up 13 cents today.

YAL did the same thing when it went ex last month, but hasn't been able to perform.

 

[Miner]

Reading some stories on NHC I visited this thread. Was puzzled if it is same New Hope Corporation which finished at +$5 price today and last 12 months prices were running between $6 to $5 ish.

So where did the prices ex div 40 cents etc were plotted ?
@Joe Blow @eskys @houtman @DrBourse and others - please throw some light
DNH

 

[finicky]

Have posted this on the WHC sub-forum but a copy might be of interest here.

Not Held

Greg Canavan (fat tail investment advisory) has pinned a second buy rec to WHC for months but on 25 June he released his first NHC buy rec. Follows a small excerpt from a long essay on NHC, " .. the lowest cost thermal coal producer on the ASX"

" .. with demand and supply drivers remaining favourable in the years ahead, in my view, coal miners will continue to generate above-average returns.

Using a 20% return, on around $3 per share of tangible capital, a 12% discount rate, and assuming a dividend payout ratio of 65%, I estimate value at around $6.20 per share.

To this we must subtract (or add) net debt (or net cash).

NHC will have around 56 cents of net cash at the end of the financial year.

So that increases my estimate of intrinsic value to around $6.75.

Given the current share price of around $4.75, there is a significant margin of safety to buying here."

 

[divs4ever]

New Hope Corporation announced that the Company has launched an offering of A$300m of senior unsecured convertible notes due FY2029.

i hold NHC ( 'free-carried )

to be listed on the SGX ( Singapore Exchange )

for goodness sake all sorts crazy pricing structure , on a foreign exchange ( yada yada )

they had better not EVER complain about local investors unwilling to invest ( in their debt ) again

FMG did similar in the US

games like this is one reason i didn't bother returning to the corporate debt market