Newbie looking for help

[Snowy01]

Hi,

I would like to see if anybody can help me get started in share trading/charting. I have been buying blue chip shares for the last 5 years on a buy & hold based on recomendations in investment mags and also that they are "safe" investments. My current portfolio sits around $300K and I would like to approx $20K to start trading once setup.
Recently I have been reading some Darryl Guppy books on share trading and believe that his style of investing has some merit and would like to learn more about this. I have a number of questions listed below that I would appreciate any help or suggestions with.

What sort of time will be required on a daily basis for EOD trading? - I will only be able to commit approx 2 hours each night (possibly more on weekends) to research etc. (young family, full time job) and was wondering if this is enough?

What is a realsitic rate of return when EOD trading? - This question is a bit "how long is a peice of string" but would like to know an average return based on traders experience. Is it high enough to warrant the extra time compared to returns from passive investing.

How can I access free/cheap data and charting packages initially? - I plan on reading several other books whilst paper trading to develop a trading system that hopefully works over the next 12 months or so and don't really want to spend vast amounts of money whilst I am still learning. Once I have some confidence that I can trade consistently and profitably I will then purchase whatever I require.

Where can I use these data and charting packages to paper trade and test my sytems?

What do other traders think about Darryl Guppy and his trading style and has anyone else had success using his teachings?

Thanks

 

[kam75]

Hi,

I would like to see if anybody can help me get started in share trading/charting. I have been buying blue chip shares for the last 5 years on a buy & hold based on recomendations in investment mags and also that they are "safe" investments. My current portfolio sits around $300K and I would like to approx $20K to start trading once setup.
Recently I have been reading some Darryl Guppy books on share trading and believe that his style of investing has some merit and would like to learn more about this. I have a number of questions listed below that I would appreciate any help or suggestions with.

What sort of time will be required on a daily basis for EOD trading? - I will only be able to commit approx 2 hours each night (possibly more on weekends) to research etc. (young family, full time job) and was wondering if this is enough?

What is a realsitic rate of return when EOD trading? - This question is a bit "how long is a peice of string" but would like to know an average return based on traders experience. Is it high enough to warrant the extra time compared to returns from passive investing.

How can I access free/cheap data and charting packages initially? - I plan on reading several other books whilst paper trading to develop a trading system that hopefully works over the next 12 months or so and don't really want to spend vast amounts of money whilst I am still learning. Once I have some confidence that I can trade consistently and profitably I will then purchase whatever I require.

Where can I use these data and charting packages to paper trade and test my sytems?

What do other traders think about Darryl Guppy and his trading style and has anyone else had success using his teachings?

Thanks

Hi I may be able to offer some insight. Been trading with end of day daily data for the past 7 years. When I started back in 02, I would spend a lot of time reading and finetuning my strategy spending anywhere up to 4 hours per night.

So, I think if you have a strategy you're happy with, 2 hours should be fine.

Returns? Well that will vary. My best year was just shy of 300% net back in 03-04. Last year I managed to just break even. Average about 60% net over the past 7 years. Again, will depend on a lot of things, like what you'll trade, how much risk you comfortable with, what drawdown you comfortable with and most importantly, how you manage your money. Money management is perhaps the single, most important element of growing your portfolio!

Free/ cheap data?? Do you want to lose money? Then make sure you pay your data provider well. Thats all I'm going to say.

Paper trading? I think it may be useful if you've never traded but its not the same. Start small and with real money and learn to cut your losses while preserving capital. focus on your money management. Capital preservation should be your goal for the first 6 months. Forget about trying to make money. Learn to cut your losses short when wrong first.

Guppy? hmmmm, read Weinstein instead.

regards

 

[Mr J]

I've read one of his books and found it decent. I think the internet and trading itself is a far better way to learn though.

I have been buying blue chip shares for the last 5 years on a buy & hold based on recomendations in investment mags and also that they are "safe" investments

They're as safe as a string is long. This meaning that an investment isn't safe just because the company is likely to go under, obviously your exposure has to be responsible, and it rarely seems to be with most people.

What sort of time will be required on a daily basis for EOD trading? - I will only be able to commit approx 2 hours each night (possibly more on weekends) to research etc. (young family, full time job) and was wondering if this is enough?

It's different for everyone. Some spend 15 minutes a day, others spend the entire day. You don't have to live stocks etc to do well, just make intelligent decisions.

What is a realsitic rate of return when EOD trading? - This question is a bit "how long is a peice of string" but would like to know an average return based on traders experience. Is it high enough to warrant the extra time compared to returns from passive investing.

That would have been my response. The answer will vary greatly. I consider passive investing, i.e. buy and hold and pray for 10% a year, to be ridiculous. It's best to be active or leave it alone altogether in my (non-professional) opinion. You have nothing to lose by trying, so you may as well have a go.

Returns? Some will like 15% p.a, some will want to average that a fortnight. High returns are possible.

How can I access free/cheap data and charting packages initially? - I plan on reading several other books whilst paper trading to develop a trading system that hopefully works over the next 12 months or so and don't really want to spend vast amounts of money whilst I am still learning. Once I have some confidence that I can trade consistently and profitably I will then purchase whatever I require.

I can only speak of Interactive Brokers and Quotetracker - the standard cheap combo. Works fine. There may be better alternatives for what you want to do, but they're not bad anyway. IB also offers a decent paper trading account, which I'd recommend using thoroughly before placing real trades.

 

[Timmy]

Free charting and data:
Incredible Charts
FCharts + Cooltrader.

Have a play with these.

Take plenty of time initially, the more time you spend just browsing through ASF the more you will pick up. Take a couple of months browsing around.

This thread will get you up-to-date on the latest research about getting good at doing anything (in your case, trading):
Becoming an expert at anything

 

[jono1887]

Hi I may be able to offer some insight. Been trading with end of day daily data for the past 7 years. When I started back in 02, I would spend a lot of time reading and finetuning my strategy spending anywhere up to 4 hours per night.

So, I think if you have a strategy you're happy with, 2 hours should be fine.

Returns? Well that will vary. My best year was just shy of 300% net back in 03-04. Last year I managed to just break even. Average about 60% net over the past 7 years. Again, will depend on a lot of things, like what you'll trade, how much risk you comfortable with, what drawdown you comfortable with and most importantly, how you manage your money. Money management is perhaps the single, most important element of growing your portfolio!

Free/ cheap data?? Do you want to lose money? Then make sure you pay your data provider well. Thats all I'm going to say.

Paper trading? I think it may be useful if you've never traded but its not the same. Start small and with real money and learn to cut your losses while preserving capital. focus on your money management. Capital preservation should be your goal for the first 6 months. Forget about trying to make money. Learn to cut your losses short when wrong first.

Guppy? hmmmm, read Weinstein instead.

regards

I've been doing it for 7 months and have got returns of 65%... but its been incredibly volatile recently, making it easy pickings to get profits just about everywhere.

 

[beamstas]

Cheap/Free data may appeal to you when you start trading, but you really do get what you pay for.

If you are doing any sort of technical analysis, free data doesn't cut it. You basically can't trade off free data because it's all over the show.

I'd suggest you look at getting some decent data and a decent charting package. It will save you in the long run..

 

[Timmy]

Guys, can we please be a little bit more careful with the quality of the information being given out. Not all free data is “all over the show”, and asking someone using free data “Do you want to lose money?” sounds like a sales pitch, not helpful advice.

I have referred this new, learner trader to two sources of free data – Incredible Charts and Cooltrader. I don’t have any connection with these companies whatsoever, just want to make that clear first up.

OK, Incredible Charts charge $18/month for the charts and data, BUT – they make free data available with a 13 hour delay. The data is the same data as the paid service, it is just delayed by 13 hours. In the case of Incredible Charts, what you pay for is getting the data in a more timely fashion. That’s the difference between this service in terms of what you pay for and what comes free. I think for a learner the free offer is very helpful, not to mention generous on behalf of the vendor, and I am sure it makes good business sense. Incredible charts feed their data into their own charting product, as far as I know it cannot be exported to other charting products (I may be wrong about this, I haven’t checked their product out that comprehensively).

OK, Cooltrader. Cooltrader are a data supplier, they supply data at various times and various prices – you pay more the quicker you want the data. If you are happy to wait until 10am the next day Cooltrader will provide it to you for free. The data from Cooltrader is basic, it comes in a text file (or CSV) and you have to import it into a charting software program, not provided by Cooltrader. The free data comes with about 3 months history, also for free. Again, this seems to me to be a generous offer from this vendor, and I am sure it makes good business sense for them.

OK, compare these products with a service like Premium Data from Norgate. I am a huge fan of Premium Data, downloading the data is a one-click affair and the data will come segregated into sectors if you want and all sorts of added extras. Great service, and this is what you pay for. And its great value, no question. (BTW Premium Data have a 3-week free trial with 6 months of historical data). (Oh yeah – I have no connection with this company either).

Then there is data provided by brokers. This is ‘free’ in the sense that most brokers do not charge for it except as obviously it is a component of the brokerage you pay.

BTW free charts are also available on something like BigCharts – live charts with a 20 minute or so delay.

After a couple of months of playing with free charts and data a new trader will have a better idea what it is he or she wants from data and charting packages and can then choose in a more informed fashion.

Apologies for the lecture.

 

[beamstas]

Timmy - well said
The problem with free data is that it isn't adjusted, so over time the data can get a bit out of whack.

Here is a chart of DUE posted on potential breakouts


And here is the same chart from a paid subscription


If you are trying to learn technical analysis, it can just be another hurdle in the learning process when your data isn't accurate.. Im not saying he should go out and buy data straight away, what you are saying has some merit. By all means go for incredible charts and try it out, take advantage of the free data and get familiar with chart patterns and technical analysis

 

[Timmy]

I think you will find the data on Incredible Charts and Cooltrader accurate, it is not free data, it is paid data delayed.

 

[Timmy]

Here is a chart of DUE posted on potential breakouts

Yes - you are right on BigCharts though... bit dodgy that one!

 

[kam75]

I've been doing it for 7 months and have got returns of 65%... but its been incredibly volatile recently, making it easy pickings to get profits just about everywhere.

Good. Trading resourses are you jono?

 

[jono1887]

Good. Trading resourses are you jono?

A variety -

FMG, RIO, BHP
MQG
FXJ

well, mainly resources i guess... but ive made most of my money on MQG.
Wish i was holding FMG right now though been "temporarily" banned from trading by my parents... apparently its 'gambling'

 

[kam75]

A variety -

FMG, RIO, BHP
MQG
FXJ

well, mainly resources i guess... but ive made most of my money on MQG.
Wish i was holding FMG right now though been "temporarily" banned from trading by my parents... apparently its 'gambling'

Nothing wrong gambling with a winning plan. I'm looking forward to this market especially the resource sector.

 

[nomore4s]

I think you will find the data on Incredible Charts and Cooltrader accurate, it is not free data, it is paid data delayed.

I've been trading for a number of years off Incredible charts and have only just brought amibroker a few months ago with data from Premium Data and the data is the same on every stock I've checked on both the free service & the paid service.

Incredible charts provides a very good service but it doesn't have the bells & whistles amibroker does for more indepth testing.

 

[IFocus]

Recently I have been reading some Darryl Guppy books on share trading and believe that his style of investing has some merit and would like to learn more about this. I have a number of questions listed below that I would appreciate any help or suggestions with.

At least Guppy looks at trading with trends but I would look further, money / trade management etc is a must learn read Nick Radges Adaptive Analysis, if starting out I would recommend joining up to his Chartist service as well I think they still do monthly subscriptions. Invest some $ in learning.

What sort of time will be required on a daily basis for EOD trading? - I will only be able to commit approx 2 hours each night (possibly more on weekends) to research etc. (young family, full time job) and was wondering if this is enough?

Its more important what you do with your time in terms of learning, practice and testing. 10 years or 10,000 hrs is a rule of thumb but the quality of your learning method can extend or decrease this time.

What is a realsitic rate of return when EOD trading? - This question is a bit "how long is a peice of string" but would like to know an average return based on traders experience. Is it high enough to warrant the extra time compared to returns from passive investing.

Depends on your method, skill, luck and most important the market. If you try to deploy a method in the wrong market then neg return. Just read through the forum where guys keep going long in a falling market and now short in a raising market.

In the end provided you can trade its most likely the market will determine your results.

How can I access free/cheap data and charting packages initially? - I plan on reading several other books whilst paper trading to develop a trading system that hopefully works over the next 12 months or so and don't really want to spend vast amounts of money whilst I am still learning. Once I have some confidence that I can trade consistently and profitably I will then purchase whatever I require.

I see some suggestions already made if you do move on to paid data recommend Premium Data used with Amibroker both can be used free for a trial.

Where can I use these data and charting packages to paper trade and test my sytems?

I would open an Interactive Brokers account and use their simulator account for practice and testing. It works exactly like the real thing also useful to learn how all the order types work without the pain of making mistakes in the real account.

IB is light years ahead of any Oz platform also the transaction cost are far below the competition. Often when starting out the difference between profit / break even or losses is slippage and commission.
You can do something about the commission use IB.

What do other traders think about Darryl Guppy and his trading style and has anyone else had success using his teachings?

Guppy helped me get on the right side of the market i.e. trade with trends how you define, get on board etc is another matter I would recommend Nick Radge for ideas / method on how to think and trade like a professional.

I would not recommend any seminars as they tend to be overpriced and bullsh!t.

One last suggestion, good trading is about good behaviours, trading to early creates bad behaviours (some call it bad decisions coming from fear, greed etc).
Testing is the holy Grail find a method and test it to death. Its not important how you test as long as you test to prove it works and to prove it fails both are important.

Your mission is to know when your method works and more importantly when it wont this comes from testing / paper trading.

More importantly you are at the starting point of creating good or correct trading behaviours that is the point of testing and paper trading and this comes a very long time before trading with real money.

Hope this is of some help and good luck

 

[Tradesurfer]

A lot has been covered already but my 2 cents.

Take out a piece of paper and write down these questions

How much am I going to trade with?
What will I trade?
What will my strategy be for entries and exits?
How will I take small losses and let winners run?
How much will my trade risk be on each position?
How will I manage my trade risk?
How many shares/contracts etc will I trade? (see above)
How will I keep track of my trades?
How will I measure success?
How will I deal emotionally with wins and losses?
How will I remain discipline to all of the above?

Part of those new to trading is knowing where to focus energy in the learning process. I think some of the prior entries have covered the "what tools will I use" aspect.

Have fun and work on developing your own trading strategies that match your personality.

To your question on limited time available to trade. You'd probably be surprised that there are traders that look at weekly charts where each price bar represents 1 week worth of price history. Some of these fowks only look at their charts once a week (offcourse if they have positions on they have risk management in place such as stops)

Some traders use daily price charts and check closing prices only to determine potential entry and exits.

So choose the right time frame as well.

Enjoy

 

[ZR1]

Hi Snowy01

I'm a newbie to this forum as well. Been trading seriously for about 6 months now with some positive results.

Did countless hours of paper trading and honing criteria I use for trading (and still honing it) but the single most important thing I find that keeps me out of trouble is having a trading plan and sticking to it. Secondly is having a money management plan and also sticking to that.

You can't trade without capital and a trading plan and money management plan is a good start to protecting your capital.

Good luck with the trading and most of all have fun.

Cheers

 

[Mr J]

Hi Snowy01
and most of all have fun.Cheers

I don't mind trading, but I certainly wouldn't classify it as fun. I don't get any thrill out of it, just satisfaction from the results.