NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Sean K]

Has been consolidating above $24.00 support and hanging in the longer term ascending triangle. Interesting that a descending triangle has now formed within the larger picture with $24.00 as the base. With POG cracking $700, there's more probability of a break up IMO, and test of the all time high. (holding)

I think the fed decision may trigger a breakout here. If it's .25 or lower, then it may not be triggered, but .50 and we might see a break to all time highs. Great long term ascending triangle. The 'potential' breakout can't get too much closer really. Risk to this is now fed not lowering rates at all.

 

[vishalt]

Yeah NCM is looking like gold lol! (NO PUN INTENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Are there any other Australian gold stocks worth looking at? All I can think of is Lihir Gold & Oxiana, but they're slow!

 

[Sean K]

Yeah NCM is looking like gold lol! (NO PUN INTENDED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Are there any other Australian gold stocks worth looking at? All I can think of is Lihir Gold & Oxiana, but they're slow!

Check the gold stock information and comparison thread for a start. Then go to the threads.

I note in the US news right now that a .25 cut is more likely. I think this is factored into POG, so gold could come off a little. Might depend on the language used by BB.

 

[vishalt]

Holy Jesus,

NEWCREST IS GOING TO BALLISTIC AFTER THAT RATE CUT.

Whoever got in this ride is one lucky MOFO!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sean K]

Interesting market depth this morning.

Well, interesting to holders anyway.

Someone playing games perhaps?

 

[vishalt]

It's happening to all shares ... BHP is showing an open of $50, CSL $111, we all know thats not gonna happen lolol

 

[Sean K]

It's happening to all shares ... BHP is showing an open of $50, CSL $111, we all know thats not gonna happen lolol

What the? Some mug punter is bidding 9.7m @ $50.05 for BHP. Probably my mum. What's goin on? Is it April 1?

 

[imajica]

who would be buying 1/2 billion dollars worth?

even a large managed fund wouldn't buy that much! or at one time

 

[Sean K]

who would be buying 1/2 billion dollars worth?

even a large managed fund wouldn't buy that much! or at one time

Perhaps it's PRC?

I see that they have started looking at acquisitions recently. BHP and NCM are both within their budget.

 

[vishalt]

Remember the time the Futures Exchange was broken so people couldn't sell? Well I hope its broken this time so people can ONLY BUY!

 

[Sean K]

Is this a cunning way for institutions to get the bids raised, get a gap up, and sell the open to make a killing?

 

[vishalt]

yeah pretty much, happens each morning, but they come down dramatically as the market nears the open

 

[Sean K]

yeah pretty much, happens each morning, but they come down dramatically as the market nears the open

This may be different. Something about futures expiry. This should be in it's own thread probably. Might move it.

DJ SFE Warns Of Price Volatility On Australian Share Market20/09/2007 08:55AM AEST

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Sydney Futures Exchange, part of ASX Ltd. (ASX.AU), warned late Wednesday that the expiry of the September SPI 200 index futures contract could cause "unexpected levels of price volatility" when the Australian share market opens Thursday.

In a statement, the SFE said circumstances particular to the September contract have led to large futures positions being accumulated.

"Traders have advised that they may seek to reduce their exposures by permitting futures positions to expire and by trading out of physical equities during the opening auction on the day of expiry," it said.

"As a result, SFE wishes to advise traders that the aforementioned market operations have the potential to lead to a much larger level of liquidity being provided in physical equity transactions during Thursday's ASX opening price auction than is usually the case.

"This could lead to unexpected levels of price volatility - traders who are unwilling to accept this price risk may look to exit positions before this," it said.

September futures expire at 0200 GMT.

The S&P/ASX 200 index last traded at 6356.1 points.

 

[Sean K]

I think the fed decision may trigger a breakout here. If it's .25 or lower, then it may not be triggered, but .50 and we might see a break to all time highs. Great long term ascending triangle. The 'potential' breakout can't get too much closer really. Risk to this is now fed not lowering rates at all.

.50 and breakout. Noice!

Not sure if it's sustainable, we need some consolidation IMO for this to be healthy. I hope to see a flag or pennant form here with support at $26.50 holding at whcih time I will top up a few.

Still cautious of overall market sentiment smashing all stocks....

Gold price to continue climb: Newcrest
September 23, 2007 - 12:19PM

Newcrest Mining Ltd boss Ian Smith forecast the gold price will continue climbing over the next two years after hitting a 28-year high last week.

Mr Smith's comment came after Newcrest two weeks ago began a rights issue to raise $2 billion to close out its gold hedging contracts, repay a gold loan and reduce debt.

Mr Smith confirmed the move to close out the hedge book was predicated on a belief the gold price would climb.

"We're fairly confident especially over the next two years all the fundamentals are there for gold to move," Mr Smith told ABC's Inside Business.

 

[Sean K]

.50 and breakout. Noice!

Not sure if it's sustainable, we need some consolidation IMO for this to be healthy. I hope to see a flag or pennant form here with support at $26.50 holding at whcih time I will top up a few.

Still cautious of overall market sentiment smashing all stocks....

We've got a bit of a pennant forming but with POG correcting looks like it will be broken to the downside. Support between $26-27, with what should be worst case $24, during this long term uptrend run, unless something dramatic happens with US economy/USD etc.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Kennas,

You have done well with this one. Thanks for the commentary. I shall be watching to see what weakness creeps in.

 

[Sean K]

We've got a bit of a pennant forming but with POG correcting looks like it will be broken to the downside. Support between $26-27, with what should be worst case $24, during this long term uptrend run, unless something dramatic happens with US economy/USD etc.

Well, gold hasn't corrected as much as I anticipated/guessed. Seems to be holding above $730 ish. If POG does consolidate above this level perhaps the pennant, which looks to have formed pretty nicely, will break to the up? Just have to wait and see what POG does I suppose. Looks positive so far though. POG breaking down to $690 ish, might see it back to $26/7 ish, $24 worst case perhaps...

 

[Sean K]

Longer term view of the breakout and consolidation. Nice pennant formed here, perhaps some accumulation. Spot POG breaking $750 and COMEX almost $760...HUI and XAU continuing break. Must some more consolidation shortly. Maybe.

 

[Sean K]

Well, gold hasn't corrected as much as I anticipated/guessed. Seems to be holding above $730 ish. If POG does consolidate above this level perhaps the pennant, which looks to have formed pretty nicely, will break to the up? Just have to wait and see what POG does I suppose. Looks positive so far though. POG breaking down to $690 ish, might see it back to $26/7 ish, $24 worst case perhaps...

Looks like it might be breaking up for whatever reason.

Still has to clear 29.50..........

Then, I have no idea.....

 

[Sean K]

1120 [Dow Jones] Newcrest (NCM.AU) up 1.5% at A$29.08, hits A$29.15 after forming matching lows at yesterday's A$28.39 trough. Market relieved Telfer on track. Still some wariness of potential short-term weakness in gold, amid U.S. recession fears. But U.S. dollar weakness should keep gold above major support at US$720.70. Gold might have bottomed last night, with former resistance at US$747.65 holding on closing basis. As for Newcrest's chart, the picture couldn't be better. A$28.39 low confirmed support from recent bullish pennant pattern, which targets A$34.30. There's also the major bullish triangle pattern, triggered in September, which targets A$34.47. Major support now A$28.39. (DWR)