NCM - Newcrest Mining

[dlineinvestor]

NCM, some flexing happening here, maybe the market know something.
Any more soft US data released could send gold higher.
Perhaps the speeding train is approaching a bend.

Good volume for the move up today. 2,536,228

 

[Holdon]

A nice consumption white candle, but on a down trending stock looking for a break you would have to go much further to play that game Dline....the trend is your friend....maybe?

Needs a break above $23 to be a hit....maybe....perhaps even insto's have an interest on a takeover and have been knocking it back a little.....sometimes graphs read like a book....hopefully not a horror story if you go long too soon....lol

 

[dlineinvestor]

A nice consumption white candle,

Never heard of a consumption candle pattern, Closing today at 22.70 makes it .30 away from your breakout target, glad you agree with my analysis hardon. :iagree: :bananasmi

 

[Holdon]

Belittle me if you wish droneoninevitable, but you may pay with your simplistic attitude.

If you go long tomorrow I wish you luck....use the force Dline, use the force, that's what happened today; traders are out of their short positions but it may fall further.

Like I said, sometimes it's like reading a book the more you read it the better it is.

And eventually you can tell the story out loud without bumbling through it.

When you have had a spanking you should refocus and get back to square one....re-read them Psychology of trading books..they are even more important than learning candles...IMO

Looks very FAKE to me, extremely fake! a fake in it's purest, but I may be wrong, maybe, not one I would play anyway.


CAUTION MY FRIEND.....anyone else agree?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks very FAKE to me, extremely fake! a fake in it's purest, but I may be wrong, maybe, not one I would play anyway.


CAUTION MY FRIEND.....anyone else agree?

Gold stocks generally are taking a beating again, & NCM are having water shortage problems at their Cadia mine. Don't know how much this will affect production but should be factored in for miners in NSW Vic & Qld these days until the drought breaks.

Short term, gold in a downtrend, weakness.

 

[dlineinvestor]

If you go long tomorrow I wish you luck....use the force Dline, use the force, that's what happened today; traders are out of their short positions but it may fall further.

When you have had a spanking you should refocus and get back to square one....re-read them Psychology of trading books..they are even more important than learning candles...IMO

Holdon up a little late were we ? Some of us have a life.
If you RE-READ my post...... it was comments on the day's price action for NCM, "any one agree"
Where did I mention that I was going long ???? and who says I have had a spanking ?????
I suggest YOU re-read your psychology books that will help curb the level of pessimissim and arogance in your life.
But only one can only hope

 

[Holdon]

Yes up late....apologies Dline for over exuberant post.....just get my name right next time.......

 

[Sean K]

A lot of stocks pushing up at the moment, but this chart looks more interesting than most. (and not just because I'm holding )

Been consolidating for some time between 22 and 24 which has formed up to be quite some resistance. Looks to be in an ascending triangle now and the indicators are saying 'look at me'. LOL

Recently the MD stated they were looking at buying out the hedge gook, as LHG did. LHG did it through a rights issue at quite a discount to the current sp, so perhaps people are getting set for that. There's also the constant takeover spec which has been going on for the last 6 years, at least.

Potential breakout at the moment, but 24 will be tough.

 

[Sean K]

A lot of stocks pushing up at the moment, but this chart looks more interesting than most. (and not just because I'm holding )

Been consolidating for some time between 22 and 24 which has formed up to be quite some resistance. Looks to be in an ascending triangle now and the indicators are saying 'look at me'. LOL

Recently the MD stated they were looking at buying out the hedge gook, as LHG did. LHG did it through a rights issue at quite a discount to the current sp, so perhaps people are getting set for that. There's also the constant takeover spec which has been going on for the last 6 years, at least.

Potential breakout at the moment, but 24 will be tough.

Broken through 24 on Friday so it's a breakout. I would anticipate some technical buying here, especially if POG remains above $660. See Ascending Triangle thread for more detail.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7495&highlight=ascending+triangle

 

[Sean K]

Broken through 24 on Friday so it's a breakout. I would anticipate some technical buying here, especially if POG remains above $660. See Ascending Triangle thread for more detail.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7495&highlight=ascending+triangle

Holding for the moment, but with markets at highs, holding breath. In all probabilities $24.00 should now be support, but it's just a probability.

 

[Sean K]

Ann out regarding the much telegraphed Fiji purchase. Looks like an interesting long term tie up with some big players. Not sure of the prospectivity of the area yet. Need to read up on it.

DJ Australia's Newcrest Signs MOU For Fiji Copper-Gold JV
19/07/2007 09:21AM AEST

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) said Thursday it is close to an agreement with two major Japanese companies to establish a copper and gold exploration joint venture in Fiji.

Newcrest has signed a memorandum of understanding with Nittetsu Mining Co. Ltd (1515.TO) and Mitsubishi Materials Corp. (5711.TO) to launch a joint venture hunting for copper and gold in the Namosi region of Fiji.

Initially Nittetsu will have a 71.94% stake in the joint venture and MMC 28.06%, with Newcrest to be given the chance to win a 65% stake over four or five years by funding exploration.

Newcrest, Australia's biggest gold miner, is to manage the exploration activities in cooperation with Nittetsu and MMC.

The Namosi tenement is 30 kilometers west of Suva and Newcrest said it remains a highly prospective large copper-gold porphyry mineralized system.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Holding for the moment, but with markets at highs, holding breath. In all probabilities $24.00 should now be support, but it's just a probability.

Kennas,

I just joined in on the party. Today appears good. No real resistance today to speak of. Colaboration with other companies can only be a good thing for NCM.

 

[Sean K]

Kennas,

I just joined in on the party. Today appears good. No real resistance today to speak of. Colaboration with other companies can only be a good thing for NCM.

Support at 24 tested twice now and it bounced off it nicely yesterday reconfirming break out of sideways movement. However, I think 25 is resistance as it's made 3 attempt at it since breaking 24 and failed. ALso some hang over from Dec/Jan. So, I'm not counting too many chickens yet. Gold breaking 680 at the moment, so NCM should still find support Monday, pending dramatic gold sell off later.

More upside might come from any final decisions on gold hedging buy out. Time to ann that now while gold looks to be heading higher.

Also, there's some more M&A action in the gold sector in the US/Cananda which might provide positive sentiment for NCM, as the perennial takeover spec.

On Thursday Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI, NYSE: AUY) announced that it has filed a formal $3.06 billion cash-and-stock bid for Meridian Gold (TSX: MNG, NYSE: MDG), and also signed a definitive business combination agreement with Northern Orion Resources (TSX: NNO, AMEX: NTO).

 

[Sean K]

The production figures look OK. This might be the first time they have come through with something that wasn't a surprise to the downside. Maybe. Lets see how Mr M finds it. Gold down slightly so,

 

[56gsa]

K you'd be please with how Mr M has taken to this news - production up and cash costs down - certainly first time i can remember... could now push on to test the $27 highs??

 

[Sean K]

I sold my CFD on this last week to take some profits, but am considering another now. Looks like $24-24.50 support holding OK. $25 resistance forming up again through.

 

[Sean K]

$24.00 still being respected. POG holding above 660...I'm going to enter again expecting this to hold and continue on, having broken that long term resistance. Parachute donned. I'll probably be out the door pretty quick if that potential H&S materialises.

 

[Sean K]

H&S wasn't confirmed, so looking at this again for a short term trade.

This has been going sideways since Jan 06 and is threatening to break all time highs on quite a large ascending triangle. This was in the ascending v descending triangle thread, but thought I'd bump it here, becuase it's getting more interesting. I'm still holding ordinary shares, but sold a long CFD on it at the start of this turbulance to stay safe. This has held up surprisingly well, and I'm looking at another trade on technicals. Clearly breaking $26.00 and you'd expect the build up over the past 18 months to release this for a run. Still at risk of falling over of course, and a break down through $24.00 would put it back in the sin bin.

Thoughts? Disagreements?

 

[Sean K]

Recent developments for NCM have been more positive. They seem to be having a good run at Telfer after years of disappointments, the Fiji JV is promising, and if they clear their hedge book, then it could be a boost in the long run, after some short term pain during the fund raising.

Has been consolidating above $24.00 support and hanging in the longer term ascending triangle. Interesting that a descending triangle has now formed within the larger picture with $24.00 as the base. With POG cracking $700, there's more probability of a break up IMO, and test of the all time high. Short term risk is still general market conditions of course. Breaking down through $24 and would have to re-evaluate.

(holding)

 

[Sean K]

Recent developments for NCM have been more positive. They seem to be having a good run at Telfer after years of disappointments, the Fiji JV is promising, and if they clear their hedge book, then it could be a boost in the long run, after some short term pain during the fund raising.

The worst kept secret in the gold world has surfaced, with NCM going to clear the hedge book through a rights issue at quite a nice discount! However, like LHG, it'll probably take a short term hit I think with the dilution. Unless POG keeps running perhaps.