NCM - Newcrest Mining

[56gsa]

Now need 945 to hold and NCM should have another good one. Imagine if NCM and LGL had have been bringing out upgrades??

Well gold testing 960 .. probably see NCM drop 4% tomorrow!! If not could well crack the $40 for an all-time record high. Also watching SBM with interest tomorrow too - missed buying in again at 82... further down the track if you want a reserve upgrade SBM are expected to release one in their march quarterly report

 

[refined silver]

NCM hasn't yet cleared the hedgebook. Still 900,000 oz remaining, to be cleared by Sept 08. If POG keeps going, it may cost an awful more than they budgeted.

Every $100 rise in POG is almost $100m further in the red on the remaining hedges.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40787

 

[ShareIt]

Well gold testing 960 .. probably see NCM drop 4% tomorrow!! If not could well crack the $40 for an all-time record high. Also watching SBM with interest tomorrow too - missed buying in again at 82... further down the track if you want a reserve upgrade SBM are expected to release one in their march quarterly report

Gold hits $970, what's the outlook for NCM in the next couple of days? We did have a big drop yesterday... but it found support on the breakout of the triangle... this looks to test $40 I think

 

[ShareIt]

Check out the volume on NCM in the first 20 min, has passed previous day already!

 

[Sean K]

I'm excited too ShareIt, but lets keep it real please.

Isn't really running any better than it did a couple of days ago.

I think gold has some more to run with the US more than likely going to lower rates again so there's some more to go here perhaps. Wish they'd bring out some good news for a change. Or, Newmont offer a nice premium. I've been waiting 4 years for that...

 

[Rockety]

Thursday (the big red one) was certainly interesting watching NCM-intra. Was an aggressive bidder putting in bids for 16,550 shares and 9,330 shares, keeping the price up for almost 3 hours between 37,500 and 37,200. Maybe he knew something or? Really no idea, but he always missed the big sell off waves and managed to push the bid side up (max number of shares he received was 1-2k, but that happened a few times thou), mainting price above/near support level (really wondering where could have NCM fallen without him). Funny thing was when he "retired", NCM fell. As a noobie, could a more experienced tell me what woulda been his point in this?

 

[Sean K]

Unusual for NCM to be outperforming LGL so much today. May be some more T/O rumours supporting it, but I haven't seen them yet. Any other ideas? Gold hasn't run that much today has it? On a down down makes me sus.

One of the brokers had a sell on it last week saying it was overpriced. Anyone else see that? Can't remember who it was.

This was out late last week which might be a reason for the run:

DJ Newcrest To Post Significant Gold Resource Upgrade Jun 30-CEO27/02/2008 01:25AM AEST

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Australia's biggest gold producer, Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) is poised to log a significant resource upgrade in its update June 30, Chief Executive Ian Smith said Tuesday.

The company has 33.2 million troy ounces of gold reserves, but findings in ongoing project areas have been greater than first estimated, said Smith via Web cast from a BMO Capital Markets conference in Florida.

The miner operates four mines in Australia and one in Indonesia, with a further four projects in development.

For example, Newcrest's Kenkana project is expected to deliver production in excess of 350,000 ounces a year for over six years, said Smith. The Marsden resource in New South Wales sits well in excess of 1 million ounces, up from 800,000 ounces given last estimate, he added.

Newcrest's Web site says these four projects comprise resources of 28 million ounces of gold and 3.5 metric tons of copper, with further reserves of 12.5 million ounces of gold and 1.1 tons of copper.

Could be a potential double top looming up in my crystal ball. Obviously hope not.

 

[Sean K]

Am I the only one having any luck today? he he

Up 5% almost touching $40.

I expect a pullback from the psychological barrier, and previous all time high, which has been breached I think.

Many must be considering profit taking, expecially with POG having run so hard. I suppose shorting it around now would be an option to some punters, although I'm generally a believer in the trend is your friend.

1239 [Dow Jones] Newcrest (NCM.AU) up 1.3% at A$38.52, one of few bright spots in gloomy market today with S&P/ASX 200 down 3.1%. Spot gold now US$978.90, up about US$5.00 since NY close. Spot gold looks headed for pysychological US$1000 level amid global financial markets turmoil. But apart from Newcrest, other gold miners are down today. Newcrest faces strong resistance from January peak at A$39.75. Median price target from brokers is A$37.00, based on Thomson ONE data. Question mark over how gold will react to US$1000 is another reason to be wary of profit taking on Newcrest. (DWR)

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, I was looking at this one closely yesterday, after moving up on such strong volume.

Good work getting on it!

I got on SGX, SBM (both look for for the short-term) and EQI instead, all did pretty well today.

I also agree, trend is your friend and would not short this one currently.

 

[ShareIt]

Made a nice profit on this one today... I think $40 will be a real test, let's see how it goes tomorrow!

 

[michael_selway]

Made a nice profit on this one today... I think $40 will be a real test, let's see how it goes tomorrow!

not bad for a day like this!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 55.2 112.9 143.3 139.1
DPS 5.0 4.6 4.8 5.3

Date: 20/2/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 20
Australian-listed gold producer Newcrest Mining has posted a 2007-08 interimprofit of $A208m. However, when the restructuring of its hedge book is takeninto account, Newcrest posted a loss of $A8m for the period. CEO Ian Smith notesthat the rising price of gold means it is costing Newcrest more to close out itshedge book. Meanwhile, Smith has signalled that Newcrest may pursueacquisitions, adding that it could make such a deal in the next four months orso

thx

MS

 

[ShareIt]

not bad for a day like this!

I know given that it was a blood bath, T/A had a big reason for me making a call on this... I hope others are doing ok and playing it safe

 

[MRC & Co]

I know given that it was a blood bath, T/A had a big reason for me making a call on this... I hope others are doing ok and playing it safe

ha ha, I have had a few instances in the last few days where I nearly traded simply due to good technicals, would have made a mint out of them too, but wasnt bold enough in this latest little downturn!

Still well in the green over the past week however, so not doing too bad!

 

[56gsa]

techies?? comments

There's interesting divergence in the RSI on NCM - but now its looking like its turned up with no resultant fall as the divergence would suggest... is there anything to be read into such an extended divergence not eventuating in the expected downturn?

Very similar patterns on SBM - altho stuttering in its turn - and LGL which is more advanced with RSI up around 70

 

[Sean K]

Has been smashed since reaching the psychological $40 and double top. There looks to be a nasty two headed H&S in there now too. eeeekkk!!!

Long term still up until those support confluences are broken.

Seems to me the market is factoring in a top in gold.

 

[josjes]

Has been smashed since reaching the psychological $40 and double top. There looks to be a nasty two headed H&S in there now too. eeeekkk!!!

Long term still up until those support confluences are broken.

Seems to me the market is factoring in a top in gold.

Neckline support has been broken now, would you say the next support is the two double top reached in 2006, 2007 which was around $27 ?

I think this level $27-$28 will be a great buying opportunity if you are a firm believer of the Gold Mega bull story.

 

[Sean K]

Neckline support has been broken now, would you say the next support is the two double top reached in 2006, 2007 which was around $27 ?

I think this level $27-$28 will be a great buying opportunity if you are a firm believer of the Gold Mega bull story.

Should be very good support at those tops, but the DT target is about $20.

Hopefully, it's just part of natural consolidation as part of the longer term trend.

I think al lot of punters are assuming US interest rate reductions have almost stopped and USD is bottoming too, effecting speculative buying of gold.

 

[josjes]

the DT target is about $20.

Sorry what does DT stand for ?

I cannot see $20 to be reached here, unless Gold reaches sub-700 ??

Would love to get back into NCM but I would like to see consolidation and strong support around $27-$28 level first before diving in again.

 

[Sean K]

Sorry what does DT stand for ?

I cannot see $20 to be reached here, unless Gold reaches sub-700 ??

Would love to get back into NCM but I would like to see consolidation and strong support around $27-$28 level first before diving in again.

Sorry, Double Top. The target from a double top is the tip of the head to the neckline. Top at $40, neckline $30 = $10 downside. It's not really a DT until the necline is positively broken. Gold could easily correct further IMO. Maybe we even saw a top? I'm still holding as a hedge to the overall financial markets which are still suspect.

 

[josjes]

Another merciless smash to the share price down to $27.6 this morning.
I am considering of entering NCM for longer term. Can anyone offer a risk reward analysis on this stock on entering at this juncture ?