NCM - Newcrest Mining

[justjohn]

NCM has a history of volitility Feb 06-March 06 dropped from $24.80 to $18.20 then in a 2/3 week period May-June 06 dipped again from $26.70 to $20.50 so holders must be use to this bouncing around so 10%is nothing to this mob eventually will :jump: :bounce: back again but when :dunno: :aus:

 

[Sean K]

This was almost half expected when it fell through 24. I didn ´t short it, as I should have at that point. Maybe if I was in the country, but who ´s to say....

I sold a third last week before I left so saved some profits, and my average price is about 18 now, so safe ish for the minute. If I was just holding this on the charts, I think I would have folded until it picked back up the up trend. That was about 25.50, I think...If I was able to, I would probably pick some more up now it ´s fallen so far. Bigger players would be looking closely now I reckon, just based on past media speculation of a takeover.

I ´ve only quickly read the ann but can ´t see what the real drama is. Is it the potential write down of reserves? I need to look into it more.

Lucky uranium is still going up!!

Thanks for the concern above guys. I ´m glad I wasn ´t watching the screen. It ´s still my biggest holding, but mainly due to the great run it ´s had the past 2 years.

Now, back to my Corona and Tequila....

 

[rico01]

NCM looking good for monday with the gold price up

 

[Sean K]

NCM due to report tomorrow and I expect the foreshaddowed downgrade to weigh on the sp. This may be factored into the sp already, but any further surprises may cause some pain. They have a solid history now of consistantly downgrading production and reserves and I expect this to continue. So, I've lightened my load one again on these, just in case. Lonsec recently took NCM out of their Model Portfolio, which has influenced me as well. They have done a pretty good job over the last few years of picking winners. Still holding a few however, for speccie potential takeover upside.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like the bad news was factored in or POG has been more influential. Up 2% since I sold some yesty. Might have to get back in again.... LOL.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like the bad news was factored in or POG has been more influential. Up 2% since I sold some yesty. Might have to get back in again.... LOL.

Classic. Up 5% since I sold now. 'Sell the rumour, buy the fact' They announced a 50% drop in NPAT... The market is a fickle beast.

 

[pacer]

It was probably your shares I bought the other day Kennas...cheers mate....lol

Might sell EOD for a tidy profit, or some atleast to lock in profits....maybe expectations of a takeover are in the wings.

 

[pacer]

Yep....sold all cfd Longs today inthe last mad minute....too good to give the profits away tomorrow....might buy back tomorrow...ya Know how it is...

Kennas...the market is definitely a fickle gal....

Most stocks have had low volume into the new year...everyone is scared of a pullback...jump in on virtualy anything and you will have a good year....and an even better one if you go short after May....IMO......lol


Kennas is a champion........thanks for your input Kennas..you are a champ...and Im' definitely not being sarcatic....you've taught me heaps, especialy graph work....

Love you all for your opinions....hope mine help you too....

Ps I'm heavily into SLA if anyone wants a look...the graph says it all....lol....later guys.....

 

[pacer]

Well that was a stroke of luck/genious....feel soory for whoever bought mine 2 mins before close yesterday.....NOT!

I shoulda reversed my position....it was a CFD trade, Damn!....going fishing now...lol

 

[pacer]

Ok I'm back in for a peek on this one and lihir, considering gold looks to be bouncing off its 3 year bottom uptrend line. If it proves itself I'll buy more over the next few days.

dyor

 

[pacer]

Proving to be a winner...up over 2% on a down day....monday will tell all.

 

[Sean K]

Proving to be a winner...up over 2% on a down day....monday will tell all.

Might be linked to the NEM takeover rumour in the US. This will put the focus on other potential takeover targets too. Wouldn't be surprised to see interest here again. Still, I've been waiting for a takeover of this for about 3 years!!

 

[pacer]

Luvley Kennas....I held through yesterdays drop, and bought more at close..

Have bit of cash to throw at the small caps now, but the graph, indicators and the price of gold are compelling me to hold for the next week or so....

I just hope the march correction was early....with the China thing......I'd hate to get caught long..................lol

PS still luv ya posts and following a few on the sidelines.

 

[pacer]

It rocks....long DFD's..............any chartists are welcome here.............copper and gold are up...following closely..

 

[Sean K]

It rocks....long DFD's..............any chartists are welcome here.............copper and gold are up...following closely..

POG being assisted by Iran-Oil-Inflation last few days lifting most goldies including this. Bounced well off $20-21 support, and now hitting $24 resistance, just as POG hitting 660 resistance also. Probably linked. This has recovered well, after the downgrade, helped by NEM takeover rumours as well. Must be happy at the moment pacer? Wouldn't be surprised for it to stall at this level along with POG, depending on the Iranian situation. If it flares up (war ) then the Oil-Inflation-Gold link should drive it up. On the other hand, if the Poms are returned without a scratch..... (did I just put a frown after that? LOL)

 

[Sean K]

Now rain has stops ops at Telfer for a few days.....oh well, didn't factor that one into the chart....

 

[pacer]

Bailed on Friday.....Happy as to watch and wait for another entry point and slap the profits into some small caps, and go fishing for a few days in this awesome West OZ weather.

You can't win them all Kennas, but it's nice getting a run of winners now and then.....hope you go well mate.

 

[Sean K]

Bailed on Friday.....Happy as to watch and wait for another entry point and slap the profits into some small caps, and go fishing for a few days in this awesome West OZ weather.

You can't win them all Kennas, but it's nice getting a run of winners now and then.....hope you go well mate.

I've just got a few left in this. Sold 2/3 when it went dropped through 24. Now it's back around there, I might as well have held. Didn't expect it to recover so well. Lonsec took this out of it's model portfolio so I have put more money into LHG instead for the moment. Still waiting for that takeover offer from...???

 

[Ang]

This stock has come as a penant down with a possible down ward price of $16. Has any one had any experience with Penants as this seems to be a large downward target.
Kind regards
Ang

 

[mildew79]

This stock has come as a penant down with a possible down ward price of $16. Has any one had any experience with Penants as this seems to be a large downward target.
Kind regards
Ang

patterns are much more reliable if they are in the same direction of the underlying market. slim chance of down pennant in an advancing bull market with rising commodity prices. just my experience.