NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Sean K]

Looks like they are not going to meet their production target at Telfer AGAIN!

Who is running this organisation, the Marx Brothers. It's a joke. Sitting on one of the most valuable pieces of dirt on the planet and they can't simply dig it out of the ground!

My God, give me a shovel and I'll improve their production rate 2 fold! Aaaaahhhh!!!!

 

[moochew78]

Down....down....down...she goes

Any thoughts on when this one may turn around?

 

[Sean K]

Starting to break through $22 resistance levels on to $24 perhaps. Seems to have found new support over the past 2 months. Maybe due to M&A talk everywhere, with this holding the best in ground resource in the country and likely taget of the big goldies. Maybe Newmont could make a bid....

 

[Sean K]

NCM smashed through $22.00 today settling at $22.50. Higher lows over the past few months and now breaking significant resistance on volume is very positive.

I was reading their ann report today and see they hve a lazy 59 million oz of gold in the ground. 59 million!!!! Hopefully the new GM can turn it around from recent problems.

 

[Sean K]

Well, I'm going to ramp this again (in my own objective way)

I realise this is not something most people on this forum look at, as we are generally searching for something under $0.05 which we are hoping will go to $50.00. Well, sorry. Good luck. Good money is made buying quality sound stocks for a decent amount of time (you'll love me for this Realist) that actually MAKE MONEY.

Over the next couple of years most analysts are bullish POG (my summary, reading all the bullish to gold web sites) so something with 59 million oz of gold to be mined with hedging slowly coming off must be OK. Right? Well, if I was Newmont, or one of those other big goldies, trying to find where my next growth story was going to come from, I would simply bolt on NCM. Done! There's another million oz per year up your sleave times perhaps $1000 oz POG and you have one billion $$ more per year to play with....less costs.

Rampetty Ramp.......

Seriously, I have held this for a while (bought from $10 to $20) and it's looking like it might be generally heading in the right direction. Up.

(disclamer: I am a long term gold bull. Not sure why YT!)

DYOR.

 

[bowser]

I realise this is not something most people on this forum look at, as we are generally searching for something under $0.05 which we are hoping will go to $50.00. Well, sorry. Good luck. Good money is made buying quality sound stocks for a decent amount of time (you'll love me for this Realist) that actually MAKE MONEY.

Most sensible statement that I've seen on ASF for weeks Kennas. Long term NCM looks to be a good buy. If the POG continues upwards current prices will look like a bargain.

 

[Sean K]

Looking at the 2 year weekly of NCM, it looks to be making some headway in breaking through resistance at $22, which should now be some short term support, with $20 looking pretty solid after that.

Interesting that NCM has held on despite POG being sold off in the lead up to the USA mid terms. My bet is that after the election, the $US will be sold off and POG will increase back through $600. Just a guess though....

Also, if NCM doesn't start making some acquisitions, then it may be gobbled up itself now that it seems to have gotten over some teething problems at Telfer.

 

[Sean K]

NCM charging though $23 on the way to $24. Might find the going tough in this range but is riding some pretty sure momentum, with POG looking good to break $600. With all the M&A happening, any rumour or talk about NCM will see this flying.

 

[Sean K]

Might be getting close to the end of the NCM run unless NEM come out with a bid. Had a great run since bottoming at $19.00.

Hit $24.00 today.

Brokers are divided now due to the relative price movement I think, but there's still support there. Targets range from $17 to $28.

I think the $28.00 valuations are better.

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - Target $26.20 (was $24.76). Production for the quarter was a little lower than the broker had expected due to lower grades at Telfer, Cadia Hill and Ridgeway.

The broker notes the company''s copper hedging will be eliminated next year, so earnings may receive a boost if copper prices remain strong.

It sees potential for some share price weakness in the short-term given copper production at Telfer in FY07 has been revised lower.

Valuation has increased to $17.70 from $17.52.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$2.70 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Neutral - With Telfer copper production forecasts being revised down the broker has cut its earnings estimate for FY07 by 10% to $196m.

The broker notes the issues at the mine are slowly being addressed and the strategic positioning of the company remains good, though it is not as well placed as some competitors to enjoy the current earnings leverage to strong commodity prices.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$0.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

JP Morgan rates the stock as Neutral - Lower copper production has been offset by higher gold production, the broker reports. Earnings fall 5% in FY07 and rise 5% in FY08. Guidance was maintained, which the broker still feels is a bit of a stretch for Telfer.

Target rises from $22.50 to $23.00.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference$0.50) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Neutral - Reduced copper production has led to earnings downgrades, but the broker is more confident in gold production, particularly at Telfer. However, the stock is still well-priced.

Current Price is $23.50. Target price not assessed.

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy, High Risk - Target $28.10 (was 26.83). Group output for the quarter was higher than the broker had forecast, while it notes comments from management indicate operations at Telfer continue to improve.

This improvement is proving to be positive for sentiment, so there is no change to the stock''s position as the broker''s preferred gold stock.

Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$4.60 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2 - Q1 production was slightly below the broker due to Telfer, but the broker is pleased that guidance has been maintained, implying no further production problems (even at Telfer).

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$1.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

 

[Sean K]

$24.00 proving tough resistance.

Gold holding well above $620, NCM down 2%

Once it breaks through here, $24.00 should be good support for push on to all time highs IMO.

Sorry to bore you with a blue chip, I know we only really care about companies with a market cap of less than a new house in Woolamaloo.

 

[Sean K]

Fallen over at $24.00 as could have reasonably been predicted. Too much traffic. Gold down.....

Have to wait for gold to go through $640 for this to go onto to all time highs perhaps..

 

[Sean K]

NCM really strugged at $24.00 and now retracted past $23.00 but just still in the upward channel. This should hopefully provide it with an area to rebound off. Unfortunately a lot of NCMs profit comes from Copper out of Telfer so that has effected it's sp dramatically in the past week.

That resistance is even tougher at $24.00 now, but a clear break though there will be excellent.

Good support between $22.00 and 22.50. Might be a place to top up for me, if copper steadies.

 

[Sean K]

Down a buck all of a sudden at $22.00. If I had any guts I'd buy some more, but it seems to have broken uptrend now..

Long term holding here, not trading.

 

[Sean K]

No guts no glory....

Bounced well off key support at $22.00.

$24.00 is still going to be a huge hurdle. Come on POG, smash through $640 for Christmas, please..

 

[traderandy]

looking quite strong this morning...

it's up past the $24 mark now.

anyone still hesitant?

 

[Sean K]

looking quite strong this morning...

it's up past the $24 mark now.

anyone still hesitant?

Not me Andy, as you might imagine. Most goldies doing well today, leads me to believe the market is punting on POG pushing on through $630+ again. The stocks are leading the gold price.....NCM will still struggle around $24.00 unless POG shines.

 

[Sean K]

Yeaha!!! Could NCM be breaking the $24.50 ish hoodoo voodoo??? Racing away towards all time highs and gold has only just cleared $640 not proven until US market does, whatever it does. I have a gut feeling in my little pinkie that this has been accumulated by a BIG gold miner, taking a stake ready to pounce, and they will have to pay about $30.00 to get control of this now I reckon. Gold, gold to Australia!

(sorry, this is not a speculative 2 cent stock )

 

[Sean K]

At $25.44 up 4%. Very, very unusual for a blue chip like this to have such a run with limited news. Perhaps there will be news of the inevitable takeover.

Gold not changed today so what's going on??

Who cares....It's my shout ladies and gentleman!

 

[spitrader1]

At $25.44 up 4%. Very, very unusual for a blue chip like this to have such a run with limited news. Perhaps there will be news of the inevitable takeover.

Gold not changed today so what's going on??

Who cares....It's my shout ladies and gentleman!

bottle of hill of grace thanks kennas

Chip good year just said in the hills AGM that GOLD is the only area they dont produce at rate they would like compared to there size, and if the right fit came up, they would look at it......

 

[Sean K]

Pushing on to all time high which is $27.00.

Breaking $24/25 area was, to quote the great man R. Beneau, just super. Marvelous stuff that!

Sorry, this is not worth



HOG is in the mail spi!