NCM - Newcrest Mining

[aus_trader]

My Target Price @ $35.38 is slightly Higher than the TradingView Experts - that just means that they are WRONG and I am RIGHT.

I think any takeover bids above your target price would be considerable for NCM board and shareholders. Certainly not the current bid by Newmont.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

With the proposed takeover being scrip-based, any Newmont CDI structure on the ASX would likely be a temporary transition set-up. History says a Newmont CDI’s liquidity would likely dry up after a few years, as the register slowly shifted to the bigger headstock in New York.

M&A arbitrage funds have been slow to get involved. Only about 60 million Newcrest shares have changed hands since last Monday, which is less than 7 per cent of the share register. It’s one reason why Newmont’s share price has held up reasonably well, considering the scale of the acquisition and the sort of price it may have to pay.

Newcrest interim CEO Sherry Duhe will present the group’s half-year numbers on Thursday. The company’s second quarter production report released last month was softer than some analysts expected, however it maintained FY23 guidance.

... until NCM reports, there's little clarity as to how this will go.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think any takeover bids above your target price would be considerable for NCM board and shareholders. Certainly not the current bid by Newmont.

Unless the Gold price takes off dramatically to over $USD2000 an oz. the deal will go through imo.

I hold NEM.

JOHN DORY

gg

 

[DrBourse]

8.18am 16/2/23 - NCM - Newmont Offer Update

 

[bronzeage]

Could be the start of a bidding war here if others such as Rio get involved

Rio could be looking to firm up land in the Patterson for winu too as they have a JV with Antipa Minerals (ASX: AZY) who also have an incredible deposit with 100% owned minyari (1.6moz and growing) which is shallow and expanding which could be very helpful to them.

exciting times to say the least

 

[DrBourse]

Faarrq - NCM's early morning Indicative Price is up to its normal tricks again - wuz UP $1.09 12 minutes ago - now @ 11 mins B4 Open it is MINUS 0.31c - perfect indication that Nobody knows wats gunna happen - Looks as though the TO Staggs are gunna bail.

 

[DrBourse]

3 BIG Punters sitting @ NCM’s $35-00 on the Sell Side – they want to sell 80,148 Shares = $2.8Mill - wonder what they know that we Don't - Hmmmmmmm

 

[Sean K]

Could be the start of a bidding war here if others such as Rio get involved

Rio could be looking to firm up land in the Patterson for winu too as they have a JV with Antipa Minerals (ASX: AZY) who also have an incredible deposit with 100% owned minyari (1.6moz and growing) which is shallow and expanding which could be very helpful to them.

exciting times to say the least

Is gold a RIO thing? Copper sure, but I'm not sure if gold's their cuppa.

 

[bronzeage]

Is gold a RIO thing? Copper sure, but I'm not sure if gold's their cuppa.

They've got a JV with antipa and thats primarily gold focused

 

[Sean K]

Very interesting situation here. NCM have pretty much offered themselves up for sale at the right price but it doesn't seem like anyone is taking the bait as yet. If NEM don't lift the bid, does another major swoop in and tack on a couple of million ounces pa? Surely Barrick and Agnico would be running the ruler over synergies and scale to add to their pot. This should be trading closer to $30 at the moment or around the blue circle. Maybe it's because gold has corrected and NEM has tanked from $55 to $45 in the past month.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning,
Happy Friday..

Been reported today (24/02/23), Newmont boss Tom Palmer has commented that they are still talking to the board of Newcrest Mining in an effort to win support for its all scrip bid for the Australian miner, but said the company would be “disciplined” in its approach to the takeover.

Holding NCM

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Good morning,
Happy Friday..

Been reported today (24/02/23), Newmont boss Tom Palmer has commented that they are still talking to the board of Newcrest Mining in an effort to win support for its all scrip bid for the Australian miner, but said the company would be “disciplined” in its approach to the takeover.

Holding NCM

Kind regards
rcw1

Thanks @rcw1

From the AFR

Newcrest left the door ajar for Newmont last week when it said it would be willing to give Newmont access to selected pieces of confidential information in the hope it might spawn a higher offer.
The offer does not amount to formal due diligence, but Mr Palmer said he was investigating the offer.
“We are disappointed that the Newcrest board rejected our proposal, and we are currently engaging with the Newcrest team in relation to their offer to provide access to more information,” he said.
“If we can reach an agreement, this combination of industry-leading talent and decades of collective experience would create significant value across the global business with an ideal mix of gold and copper.”
Newmont’s scrip offer effectively valued Newcrest shares at $27.16; the stock was $23.20 at Thursday’s close.

While I am a holder of NEM and in the past a holder of NCM I do feel the American cousins are being a bit high handed. I believe they intend getting rid of the PNG assets which NCM have been unable to contemplate. NEM could do it in an enlarged portfolio spread.

In the article Palmer values Gold going forward at $USD1700. NCM seem to be a going nowhere outfit and if the offer is pulled the share price may be adversely affected.

gg

 

[DrBourse]

NCM just hit a Glass Ceiling.

 

[Sean K]

NCM just hit a Glass Ceiling.
View attachment 154754

Yep, you can trace $26 ish as a horizontal resistance problem back a couple of years. If it gets through, $29 and around the TO price.

NEM chart looks a bit sad at the moment which may account for the lack of excitement in taking over NCM, or a lift in the offer price.

 

[Sean K]

$26-29 is obviously going to be a top here unless a rival bid gets lobbed in, or POG explodes pushing NEMs price significantly higher. Might just hold on until we know which direction POG goes at it's significant resistance zone around $2000-75. Need further USD weakness to get there perhaps.

 

[Sean K]

This has only taken about 10 years to do. I wonder what NEM will do with PNG when they take over? Maybe a spin off. Call it Lihir-Wafi-Golpu Gold perhaps?

 

[Sean K]

Happy with 32 bucks but 40 would have been better.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Happy with 32 bucks but 40 would have been better....

sniffing the breeze, revised revised offer.? From around the traps

A weak production effort from Newmont Corp in the first quarter of this year with a 40% slump in net profit, explains why it really wants Australia’s Newcrest Mining.

Newcrest has the ounces and lower costs that would help revitalise Newmont’s bottom line – the US giant’s management and board know that and will do their best not to show their eagerness.

Newcrest’s Cadia, Brucejack and Lihir mines are large low-cost operations with development potential (Cadia is just swinging into a new growth cycle) that Newmont will have to recognise in its final offer because the current 0.4% of a Newmont share offer ratio doesn’t seem to sweet enough.

Newcrest also has 70% of the still growing Havieron gold copper prospect near Telfer in WA which will be another low-cost operation because it will use Telfer’s processing stream (saving millions of dollars in added costs)

As well, Newcrest revealed in its quarterly report on Thursday that a new area of mineralisation called East Ridge had been outlined at Red Chris, while rich new zones of gold mineralisation continue to be identified around the Brucejack mine. Both are in British Columbia in Canada.

None of these prospects seem to be mentioned in all the takeover talk and yet they should be because they are in stable jurisdictions of Canada and Australia which adds to their future attraction...

 

[DrBourse]

Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX, TSX, PNGX: NCM) has today released to the market a presentation to be delivered by Sherry Duhe, Interim CEO, at the Macquarie Australia Conference.

The presentation will be delivered on Thursday, 4th May 2023 at 8:45am AEST.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning,

It has been reported today (12/05/23):

Newcrest has given Newmont another week to complete its exclusive due diligence before it submits a binding scrip offer that values the target at around $32bn.

In April, Newmont upped its bid to 0.4 shares for each Newcrest share on offer, lifting its bid by 10.1 per cent on a pure scrip basis. It also also offered to allow its Australian target to pay a special dividend of up to $US1.10 a share if the deal closes – without reducing its offer.

The new bid gave Newcrest an implied equity value of $29.4bn and enterprise value of $32bn and followed the rejection of Newmont's offer of 0.363 of its shares for each Newcrest share. Newmont's exclusivity remains until May 18, and there is no certainty a binding offer will result, Newcrest told investors on Friday.

Have a great weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1