NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Sean K]

I think NCM could have fought a little harder here and got another dollar or two.

Anyone going to keep the NEM shares?

Newcrest Mining’s board has folded on the $28.8bn takeover approach from the world’s biggest gold miner, with the company recommending shareholders accept the company’s all-scrip bid.

Newmont upped its bid in April, offering 0.4 shares for each Newcrest share on offer – a 10.1 per cent improvement on its February position on a pure scrip basis. But Newmont has also offered to allow its Australian target to pay a special dividend of up to $US1.10 a share if the deal closes – without reducing its offer – to allow Newcrest to extinguish its remaining franking credits.

On current values of Newmont’s scrip, the deal gives Newcrest an implied equity value of $26.2bn and an enterprise value of $28.8bn – in early April that was an implied equity value of $29.4bn and enterprise value of $32bn.

Newcrest investors will emerge owning 31.1 per cent of the combined group if the deal completes.

While an independent expert value will still be required, Newcrest chairman said the period of mutual due diligence over the last month had shown the merger would deliver significant value to the company’s shareholders.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Sean,

Just looking at the NEM Financials & TA - NEM has fallen from abt $85 to current levels over the past 12 mths.
At present, NEM's Financials are great, and TA seems to have found a lot of support at abt $42.20.
There is a Benchmark Candle Formation from late July 2022 still in play.
And most ST Inds suggest ST Uptrend.

Yes, I will keep my NCM Shares.

I will post a NCM Cht shortly.

 

[DrBourse]

 

[Sean K]

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With USD POG hanging around ATHs the senior goldies really should be doing better. General market conditions are obviously a factor, but they should be making a motza at the moment, inflationary pressures notwithstanding.

I guess we'll need a NEM thread soon as this TO looks in the bag. I think they were listed in Australia a long time ago so maybe we have one.

I wonder what NEM are going to do with any satellite, marginal and exploration projects NCM have? They must have a plan to focus on the good bits and shelve the crap. Otherwise it's a behemoth. But, maybe that will be good for when gold goes to US $3K.

NEM still almost half it's ATH....

 

[DrBourse]

Looking at the NCM Mkt Depth Screens, it looks like it's only Small Fry Selling atm, the bigger players are waiting to sell for $29.84, $29.99, $30.00 and above...... Virtually No Bigger Players Buying atm.....
Looks like those "in the know" might know sumthin we don't.... Gee that's Very Unusual is'nt it .....

 

[DrBourse]

9.45am 16/5/23 - Interesting Market Index: Morning Wrap.

 

[Sean K]

9.45am 16/5/23 - Interesting Market Index: Morning Wrap.

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I like how MAQ define 'juniors'. BGL MC $1.5b, DEG $2.3b.

I want to be a junior...

 

[Sean K]

NEM is not making me feel warm and fuzzy about owning their shares.

Sure, POG's correcting, but, geesh...

 

[Sean K]

I wish NEM had have offered cash for NCM at the original offer value. We should be getting over 30 bucks for our shares.

 

[Sean K]

Why did we agree to this? It's crap.

 

[DrBourse]

And for those that don't know what a Force Majeure is:- ..........

Force Majeure (French for "greater force") is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as war, strike, riot, crime, act of nature (e.g., flooding, earthquake, volcano), prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract. However, force majeure is not intended to excuse negligence or other malfeasance of a party, as where non-performance is caused by the usual and natural consequences of external forces (e.g., predicted rain stops an outdoor event), or where the intervening circumstances are specifically contemplated.

 

[Sean K]

And for those that don't know what a Force Majeure is:- ..........

Force Majeure (French for "greater force") is a common clause in contracts which essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as war, strike, riot, crime, act of nature (e.g., flooding, earthquake, volcano), prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract. However, force majeure is not intended to excuse negligence or other malfeasance of a party, as where non-performance is caused by the usual and natural consequences of external forces (e.g., predicted rain stops an outdoor event), or where the intervening circumstances are specifically contemplated.

Perhaps something like an employee strike because of bad working conditions and the company ripping them off?

Although, maybe asking for double the profit share is unreasonable...

Companies declare force majeure when unexpected circumstances prevent them from meeting contract obligations.

"Due to interruptions in production caused by the union strike at Newmont's Peñasquito mine in Mexico, force majeure has been declared with certain customers for some of the mine's products," Newmont said in an emailed statement.

On June 7, the National Union of Mine and Metal Workers of the Mexican Republic notified Newmont of strike action demanding an increase in the profit-sharing benefit provided for in the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) from 10% to 20%, the company said.

But, that doesn't totally explain gold production falling 17% and AISC up 23%.

 

[DrBourse]

Wonder if NCM can invoke the Force Majeure Clause and somehow get out of this Bad Deal with NEM....
Surely someone within the NCM ranks must be thinking about it.....

I reckon NCM's Stupidity, and their lack of Due Dilligence, would not meet the FM Clauses......
So I guess we are stuck with the Stoopid NCM Directors...

 

[DrBourse]

NCM’s Qtrly Report looks Good….

Newcrest Interim Chief Executive Officer, Sherry Duhe, said, “We were pleased to achieve our FY23 Group guidance for gold production and All-In Sustaining Costs following an improved operational performance in the June quarter”……

There were a few problem areas, but overall, it’s pretty good IMO….

So any pullback in the SP will be attributed to the Uneducated Analysts & Brokers ridiculous past Guestimates…..

The looming TA barrier for NCM is the $28.47 Line, looks like a bit of a Glass Ceiling that NCM needs to break, soon….

Most TA is looking good, with at least 6 Support Lines below the current SP – ST Ind’s look OK….

The Gap Down on 21/7/23 should not cause any problems to NCM, as IMO it was just a kneejerk reaction by the sheep….

IMO the overall upside far outweighs any perceived downside…

The above are my personal thoughts on NCM – the NCM parameters I set for both TA & FA meet my needs, they may not be appropriate for others…

DISCLAIMER – I Hold NCM…..

DYOR….



Cheers….

DrB.

 

[Sean K]

NCM’s Qtrly Report looks Good….

Newcrest Interim Chief Executive Officer, Sherry Duhe, said, “We were pleased to achieve our FY23 Group guidance for gold production and All-In Sustaining Costs following an improved operational performance in the June quarter”……

There were a few problem areas, but overall, it’s pretty good IMO….

So any pullback in the SP will be attributed to the Uneducated Analysts & Brokers ridiculous past Guestimates…..

View attachment 160018

The looming TA barrier for NCM is the $28.47 Line, looks like a bit of a Glass Ceiling that NCM needs to break, soon….

Most TA is looking good, with at least 6 Support Lines below the current SP – ST Ind’s look OK….

The Gap Down on 21/7/23 should not cause any problems to NCM, as IMO it was just a kneejerk reaction by the sheep….

IMO the overall upside far outweighs any perceived downside…

The above are my personal thoughts on NCM – the NCM parameters I set for both TA & FA meet my needs, they may not be appropriate for others…

DISCLAIMER – I Hold NCM…..

DYOR….



Cheers….

DrB.

Some pretty impressive exploration results at Red Chris and Brucejack too. Going to be good assets for NEM.

 

[Sean K]

NEM SP is depressing. This has been a pretty crap TO for NCM holders.

 

[DrBourse]

Anyone have an opinion on the upcoming Newmont acquisition of Newcrest…

If the Scheme is voted down, and does not proceed, Newcrest will continue as a standalone entity and Newcrest Shareholders will retain their Newcrest Shares…

Anyone, think that will happen? – or do we bail B4 the whole saga gets too complicated?

 

[Sean K]

Anyone have an opinion on the upcoming Newmont acquisition of Newcrest…

If the Scheme is voted down, and does not proceed, Newcrest will continue as a standalone entity and Newcrest Shareholders will retain their Newcrest Shares…

Anyone, think that will happen? – or do we bail B4 the whole saga gets too complicated?

IMO, NCM has failed Australians. What they should have done and always aimed to do is be The Big Australian of gold companies. Giving up to NEM is week.

It probably goes to the heart of their leadership. Instead of bending over they should have been attacking other mid tier projects that might have turned into tier 1. Like DEG. How much of a no-brainer would it have been to buy that earlier, even though it's going to be a massive capex.

The last CEO was a goose, the interim one is posted in because of her blonde hair. One of the reasons I got some good jobs as a youngster. Thoroughly underserved.

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon

Newcrest Mining shareholders have voted in support of US giant Newmont Corporation’s takeover offer, further bolstering the size of the world’s largest gold miner.

Stock in the new entity will begin trading on the ASX next month.

Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, announced its scrip bid on May 14, with an independent expert’s report concluding that the bid was not fair, in terms of the valuation of Newcrest, but in the absence of a better offer, was in the best interests of shareholders.

Newcrest shareholders will receive 0.4 Newmont securities for each of their shares, plus a $US1.10 per share special dividend. Australian shareholders will receive chess depository interest (CDIs) in Newmont which will continue to be traded on the ASX.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Reported today (17/10/23) via New Corp Media:

Newcrest's gold production dropped to 454,312 ounces in the three months to September 30, with its copper production also slipping to 30,624 tonnes following "routine planned maintenance activities" across its operations. The quarterly report comes as the Federal Court is set to approve Newmont's takeover of Newcrest later Tuesday. If the scheme of arrangement is approved by the Federal Court, it is expected to become effective on October 18 and implemented on November 6.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1