NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Sean K]

Back on 4/2/23 "15 Trading View Analysts" had a Target Price of $29.70 - and that is considered very conservative.
So with the normal Argy-Bargy that the NCM Board must employ, they should be looking @ $35-00+ - and thats just a quick Rule of Thumb on my behalf.
View attachment 152671

I‘ll take 35, thanks. Let’s hope Barrick or Agnico come sniffing to make things really interesting.

Having said that, I do actually like NCM being in Aussie hands. ?

 

[DrBourse]

Todays Trading ViewsTechnical Analysts view is shown below.

 

[DrBourse]

Crawling back into my Cave now.

 

[aus_trader]

Hopefully gets rejected. I think companies like BHP and NCM should be owned by the country and its people. Foreigners should be allowed to invest with rules preventing majority foreign ownership e.g. each foreign entity may be allowed a maximum of 10% stake.

Imagine if you try to do this to a Chinese top tier miner. Not only will the Chinese Government block it, but they may even bankrupt the foreign investors by nationalising the mine. They'll say thank you very much for your hard earnt invested, we'll keep that investment. now you can piss off with your tail b/w the legs, as you don't have any ownership or say in a CCP owned national asset.

I didn't bring the above argument as some fictional theory. It's happened in the past to numerous Chinese owned entities including a Gold mine developed in a Joint Venture by "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki where he lost billions as CCP simply confiscated it. He still talks about this bitter experience to this day, and the danger of investing and developing mines in China.

 

[finicky]

That looks only around $27.50 aud they're offering in scrip?
NEM (usd) x .38 (offer) x 1.45 (aud)
50 x .38 x 1.45

 

[Sean K]

That looks only around $27.50 aud they're offering in scrip?
NEM (usd) x .38 (offer) x 1.45 (aud)
50 x .38 x 1.45

If us gold bugs are right and we break up from this consolidation period then it seems very cheap to me. While they’ve had problems in PNG, Havieron is looking great and the Canadian deposits look fantastic. Maybe NCM should have done their own M&A play with something like OZL and expanded their product base. Still bedding down Canada I guess, but it’s such a shame to lose a big Aussie gold miner. Agree with @aus_trader 100%.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have a holding in NEM and I believe you NCM chappies are getting a very good deal.

Arguing over a better offer is just not baseball.

Be good fellows and accept and then we can all go hunt Gold more profitably together.

gg

 

[brerwallabi]

A real low bid, I think they want to test the waters on how receptive the NCM board is.
Actually it really is a joke bid.
No doubt they will be back with another offer bid.
If gold comes back from its recent fall which driven by factors which combined led to some serious profit taking then NCM with its production and assets could well be at the realm of $40 a share.
A gold price of US$2100+ to US$2300 in 2023 is no longer a distant hope.
So NEM the message in Australian is get stuffed cos your bloody robbing me.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

From the AFR.

A hallmark of Newcrest’s challenging management culture in recent years has been a marked reliance on external consultants. Chief among these was McKinsey, whose wonks have lately been involved in everything from mine operations to data science initiatives, and whose research is cited in Newcrest’s sustainability and diversity reports as well as then-CEO Sandeep Biswas′ speeches to external bodies.

A Newcrest spokesman on Monday defended its use of consultants, which he said occurred “at appropriate times”. He also dismissed claims of a $500 million spend on external advice over the course of Biswas’ nine-year tenure at the company, calling it a “gross exaggeration” that is “orders of magnitude wrong” (Biswas abruptly left the company last December – search firm Russell Reynolds is hunting for his replacement.)

This newspaper has previously written that the company’s heavy use of external consultants had left many employees feeling “bypassed, not trusted, undermined, superfluous and ultimately insecure in their jobs”. It also noted that the company uses the McKinsey-owned and operated Organisational Health Index to gauge employee sentiment on its culture. Which, if nothing else, is utterly ironic.

It is notable that Biswas left suddenly in December and NCM still has not got a new CEO.

Half a Billion $ on consultants including doing feedback on the consultants staff from workers at the mines seems excessive.

NCM shareholders should think carefully if they are inclined to reject this offer.

A better offer may not come along, and stock prices go down as well as up particularly if upper management is spendthrift in engaging consultants to run the company and do work which they themselves should be doing.

gg

 

[Telamelo]

Can see this becoming a contentious issue with much to play out here it seems.

 

[aus_trader]

It's one thing when an explorer or a small biotech hopefull gets taken over by a local blue chip or a foreign entity, but when the top tier stocks with the country's assets get taken over and removed from the asx, what do we have here ?

Just a bunch of 4-legged banks that the govt wouldn't let go due to vested interest (all that 4-pillar chitchat) and a gambler's playground of mining and biotech specs that does hardly anything but waste investor money with round after round of capital raisings. Anything of value that holds cash producing assets will either be privately owned by Gina or foreign owned.

 

[Sean K]

It's one thing when an explorer or a small biotech hopefull gets taken over by a local blue chip or a foreign entity, but when the top tier stocks with the country's assets get taken over and removed from the asx, what do we have here ?

Just a bunch of 4-legged banks that the govt wouldn't let go due to vested interest (all that 4-pillar chitchat) and a gambler's playground of mining and biotech specs that does hardly anything but waste investor money with round after round of capital raisings. Anything of value that holds cash producing assets will either be privately owned by Gina or foreign owned.

I’m also troubled by this. I’m happy that I’m making a few K on the deal, but I just don’t feel comfortable about Australia handing over what I think are strategic assets. Sure, NCM own stuff in PNG and Canada, but I’d prefer they had just wrapped up all Aus assets. It makes me a little bit confused about owning any international miner. I’m vexed.

 

[DrBourse]

From Ausbiz @ 8.21am this Morning.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It's one thing when an explorer or a small biotech hopefull gets taken over by a local blue chip or a foreign entity, but when the top tier stocks with the country's assets get taken over and removed from the asx, what do we have here ?

Just a bunch of 4-legged banks that the govt wouldn't let go due to vested interest (all that 4-pillar chitchat) and a gambler's playground of mining and biotech specs that does hardly anything but waste investor money with round after round of capital raisings. Anything of value that holds cash producing assets will either be privately owned by Gina or foreign owned.

I agree @aus_trader

However we in Australia just don't have the calibre of boards that are present in the USA nor the mongrel to pursue opportunities.

Look at the boards of banks, other Australian financials and the XAO in general.

Many board members are on 6 or more boards.

It is an insidious Sydney/Melbourne thing unless the odd political grub such as a politically connected Queenslander slips in to the well worn seat.

I have served on a few boards and know how replacements are found on retirement, and looking at the XAO many members thereon went to the same school, intermarry and provide outsourcing to siblings or cousins in Price Waterhouse or similar "advisory" outfits.

Talk about incest. an Amoeba would be jealous.

NCM has been thoroughly mismanaged imo. I believe ( I sold NCM last year or the year before and hold NEM btw. ) that holders of NCM scrip would be better off under American management holding NEM scrip who have the balls to run a Gold company properly, taking some risk, hedging aggressively and actually a board that gets off their ar*ses and gets their feet and hands dirty instead of outsourcing it to an outfit like McKinsey as they have for a cost of one half of one Billion Dollars.

gg

ps

We are now in to the third month of NCM not having a CEO btw.

gg

 

[bronzeage]

interesting effect on the patterson junior mining companies too such as GGP and Antipa Minerals who have very strong links to newcrest with the haverion JV for ggp and NCM JV with Antipa plus ncm own 10% shareholding in the company

Both have vast acerage and great gold finds too with Antipa and its Minyari deposit with further drilling and assays due anytime and GGP with Havieron PLUS both are right round the corner from Telfer

Newcrest own 10% of antipa which will go to newmont then and this could be the start of their building footprint in the patterson - potential buy out of Antipa could be on cards or a JV to replenish telfer

similar to GGP siuation too where they could buy them out and then do everything in house

Or newmont could sell telfer and then most likely twiggy forrest would buy it for 2bn and then build acerage with a buyout or JV with antipa

lots of up side for all three companies here and ggp and azy dirt cheap right now

exciting times

 

[DrBourse]

I made a few quick calculations yesterday on just what the Newmont offer should look like, so Just ran my Slide Rule over NCM - Results are below for anyone that's interested.

Data Entry used in this Calculation.

That above date produces the following Analysis.

and next is the Chart - also showing the Trading View Analysts Calculations.

My Target Price @ $35.38 is slightly Higher than the TradingView Experts - that just means that they are WRONG and I am RIGHT.
Cheers....
DrB

 

[finicky]

^^^
More detail please

 

[DrBourse]

I made a few quick calculations yesterday on just what the Newmont offer should look like, so Just ran my Slide Rule over NCM - Results are below for anyone that's interested.

Data Entry used in this Calculation.
View attachment 152734
That above date produces the following Analysis.
View attachment 152738
View attachment 152736
and next is the Chart - also showing the Trading View Analysts Calculations.
View attachment 152737
My Target Price @ $35.38 is slightly Higher than the TradingView Experts - that just means that they are WRONG and I am RIGHT.
Cheers....
DrB

Just Reposting the Data Entry Snapshot from my last post (above).
Dunno what happened, it was too blurrey to read.

There ya go - Dats Better.

 

[DrBourse]

^^^
More detail please

Hi finicky - I'll do better next time - OK?

 

[Sean K]

^^^
More detail please

Pretty sloppy really. We used to delete ramps with no data backing them up.