NCM - Newcrest Mining

[prana]

no suprise, gold isnt up that much in Aussie and energy prices are up - copper is good though. You can't forget currency and operating margin aside from technicals.

 

[sqwark7600]

no suprise, gold isnt up that much in Aussie and energy prices are up - copper is good though. You can't forget currency and operating margin aside from technicals.

I think it is best to take currency out of the equation by using the Oil/Gold ratio as an overbought or oversold indicator. The principle being that Gold price tends to trend with Oil price over time.
:sheep:

 

[quarky]

Mining royalties are in dispute
25/08/2009 8:34:00 AM

Cadia Valley Operations is at the centre of a legal dispute with the NSW State Government set to be heard by the High Court of Australia.

In a case with widespread consequences for the resources industry, the mine’s parent company, Newcrest Mining Limited, is seeking to exempt itself from paying royalties on copper extracted from operations south of Orange.

Newcrest believes the copper is a privately owned mineral and should not be subject to standard royalties while the government believes the copper, like gold, is a publicly owned resource that should be subject to normal royalty payments.

In May 2008 the NSW Supreme Court found in favour of Newcrest and ordered the State Government to refund $10.9 million in already paid royalties and interest.

The government appealed the decision to the NSW Court of Appeals.

In July this year the court ruled in favour of the government and upheld the appeal.

Newcrest has now sought to have the matter heard in the High Court of Australia.

Should the court rule in favour of Newcrest, taxpayers could miss out on millions of dollars in royalties from the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper to be mined over the next 21 years as part of the Cadia East underground project.

A spokesperson for Mineral Resources Minister Ian Macdonald yesterday said the Crown Solicitor’s Office had advised an appeal with the High Court had been filed by Newcrest.

No date has been set for the hearing.

“Therefore, as there is a court case pending, we are unable to comment further,” the spokesperson said.

Newcrest Mining Limited also declined to comment.

 

[quarky]

Newcrest (ASX:NCM) jumped on climbed 6.5 percent after gold climbed the most in more than five months. Gold price rallied overnight because investors were turning away from currencies to snap up the precious metal.


Code Last Move % Move Buy Sell Open High Low Volume Value Last Traded
NCM 31.51 1.930 6.52% 31.50 31.51 31.30 31.62 31.07 2,984,144 93,662,491 03-Sep 11:41:48 AM



wish i had bought some NCM last week, when I almost pressed <Enter> for a BUY

 

[Gekko]

Death, Taxes, and gold heading to $1000 withing days. The 3 certainties of life. NCM to spike again today with gold up to $995 overnight. Gold rush!

 

[Sean K]

Hmm, why has no one posted on this in so long.

Not very exciting I supposed, just a very big company now.

If POG keeps going could be in the top few soon too.

Plus, just how big will they get through acquisition?

Newcrest paves way for gold deals
Reuters | Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:55

[miningmx.com] -- Newcrest Mining $8bn-plus acquisition of Lihir Gold is creating a new top-tier of Australian gold producers, which are already being sized up for takeovers.

These include Thailand-focused Kingsgate Consolidated, Perseus Mining, with ground in West Africa, and Andean Resources, exploring in South America.

Takeovers have denuded the top end of the Australian gold sector, leaving only a few vehicles with which institutions can ride the gold bull market outside of Newcrest, according to Warwick Grigor, who heads BGF Capital Group.

Sino Gold fell into the hands of Eldorado Gold, Kinross Gold is offering about $7bn for Red Back Mining Inc and Lihir, now Newcrest, bought Africa-focused Equigold.

"Perseus will get taken over at some point, but management is raising the bar through a very aggressive drilling program designed to disclose riches in the ground sooner rather than later, ensuring that a bidder pays a maximum price," Grigor said.

 

[Sean K]

Next tip is that NCM take OZ Minerals and they start diversifying more in to copper.

Perhaps spin off the African assets into a new company.

 

[pavilion103]

Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry?
Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?

 

[awg]

Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry?
Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?

Seems hostage to $A, if you can predict currency fluctuations, you would be a genius

With cash cost about $500 per oz, you would expect more SP strength ?

 

[pixel]

Does anyone think this is currently a low risk entry?
Can we make a nice profit this week with a run up to $36?

Not quite low risk, pav;
I see it's struggling at a long-term rising support line, which hasn't been broken since April 2009.
If it can't find strength here and gap up by about $1 on Monday, I'd be rather concerned of more downside - potentially as low as $29.

 

[pavilion103]

Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?

I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.

Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?

Thanks

 

[skyQuake]

Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?

I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.

Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?

Thanks

Will assume u meant 26th Sept.

It was stopping vol, and it bounced 15%~
Been a while since that stopping vol.
The retests werent on too low vol, and it became rangebound. Broke out of the box's downside after it couldn't run past $38
Also gotta keep in mind its a gold miner, so moves in gold generally trump out

 

[pavilion103]

Will assume u meant 26th Sept.

It was stopping vol, and it bounced 15%~
Been a while since that stopping vol.
The retests werent on too low vol, and it became rangebound. Broke out of the box's downside after it couldn't run past $38
Also gotta keep in mind its a gold miner, so moves in gold generally trump out

Thanks mate,
Big help.
Sometimes I see stopping volume and think that the trend HAS to change and head up further.
I can see that the re-tests were actually on some of the highest volume since then and then a lower top when it then began to fall.

I get a thought in my mind about what I think will happen and then obviously manipulated everything in my mind to confirm my view. I was blinded to what was actually happening because I closed my mind to it.

That is a great help. Thanks

 

[pixel]

Can someone please tell me my error of analysis here?

I thought that the volume on 26/11 was stopping volume and that prices moved up and then re-tested that low on lower volume. I thought all the supply must be gone and it's ready to move up.

Is it because the stock is still in a downtrend that I need to be more cautious? Is it that the volume on 26/11 wasn't really as significant as I thought at the time?

Thanks

IMO it's not always depending on volume alone; price patterns come into play just as often. In this case, we had two "W" formations, which I explained in earlier posts as they evolved. Once the last "W" bounced back off the upper resistance (now marked as 0%) those moves were over, and NCM entered a new pattern, which, with a little "poetic license", we might consider a 4th attempt breakout. In any case, that was at t he back of my mind when I suggested a Low of $29, and I still consider that a reasonable possibility.



While the blue "A"s suggest accumulation may possibly be going on, the latest three candles could just as easily signal an attempt to halt the slide temporarily, in order to achieve a better overall sale result - assuming the interests behind current sales are Overseas players, intent on repatriating USD or EUR.

 

[sreeve]

2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling - 27.8% in 2011, despite gold increasing by 10.0%. Newcrest, like many other miners had its worst year since the commodity boom started a decade ago.

Increasingly, it now seems that Newcrest, BHP Billiton and other resource stocks are a proxy for world sharemarkets rather than move up or down on their company fundamentals or value of commodities of which they produce.

Newcrest’s market cap at the end of 2011 was $22.7 bn (down from $30.9 bn at end of 2010). Newcrest now accounts for around 47% of total gold company market cap (*excludes copper focused miners such as BHP, OZL, PNA).

The next largest gold stocks are RRL (at $1.5 bn), PRU (at $1.1 bn) and EVN (at $1.05bn).

Cheers
Scott

 

[skc]

2011 was an awful year for many stocks and stockmarkets around the world. Despite the global debt problems, many companies, particularly in the resources sector are making very healthy profits, are cashed up and have little or no debt. Newcrest Mining fits this criteria, but ended up falling - 27.8% in 2011, despite gold increasing by 10.0%. Newcrest, like many other miners had its worst year since the commodity boom started a decade ago.

Increasingly, it now seems that Newcrest, BHP Billiton and other resource stocks are a proxy for world sharemarkets rather than move up or down on their company fundamentals or value of commodities of which they produce.

Newcrest’s market cap at the end of 2011 was $22.7 bn (down from $30.9 bn at end of 2010). Newcrest now accounts for around 47% of total gold company market cap (*excludes copper focused miners such as BHP, OZL, PNA).

The next largest gold stocks are RRL (at $1.5 bn), PRU (at $1.1 bn) and EVN (at $1.05bn).

Cheers
Scott

The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility? I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.

Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?

 

[sreeve]

The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility? I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.

Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?

NCM fell 54.7% in 1992 and 66.6% in 1997, but of course it was an entirely different company in the 1990s, the gold market was out of favour, and the debt-cycle was in full steam. Consider that to the fundamentals today: central banks net buyers of gold (first time in decades), countries accumulating large positions in gold, China and India now participating in the gold market in a huge way, debt-cycle is over with Europe, US and others going to have problems for decades to come.

Bubble chart is of 340 ASX companies which I've put together into an Excel database over the last couple of years. I will be releasing a PDF of the database on my website in the next week or so (if anyone would like a copy).

 

[skc]

NCM fell 54.7% in 1992 and 66.6% in 1997, but of course it was an entirely different company in the 1990s, the gold market was out of favour, and the debt-cycle was in full steam. Consider that to the fundamentals today: central banks net buyers of gold (first time in decades), countries accumulating large positions in gold, China and India now participating in the gold market in a huge way, debt-cycle is over with Europe, US and others going to have problems for decades to come.

Bubble chart is of 340 ASX companies which I've put together into an Excel database over the last couple of years. I will be releasing a PDF of the database on my website in the next week or so (if anyone would like a copy).

Interesting. I use Webiress market map which is basically square boxes rather than bubbles to represent market cap.

I guess it depends on whether you are visually stimulated by squares or circles

 

[sreeve]

Interesting. I use Webiress market map which is basically square boxes rather than bubbles to represent market cap.

I guess it depends on whether you are visually stimulated by squares or circles

Here's a tree map. I prefer bubbles

 

[tronic72]

The NCM yearly chart may be better shown on a log scare to show relative volativility? I suspect that red candle around 1992 is a lot lower percentage wise than 2011.

Interesting bubble chart. What did you use to create that?

Nice buying opportunity at the moment. Sitting close to 3 year lows.