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My Investment Journey

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Annual update - portfolio is up 10.2% for the year, compared to XAOAI (0.93%) and XSOAI (13.36%). Most of my portfolio is now in a fully automated strategy, with a few stocks remaining from prior purchases. The automated portfolio performed better, with an almost identical return to XSOAI.

I will continue with the same strategy into the new year. My buy/sell triggers are mostly based on fundamental data, so I expect more actiivity after the reporting period.

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KnowThePast said:
Monthly update - portfolio fell by $61.25 (0.1%).

View attachment 62438
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Been thinking about your stocks recently, KTP.

One big issue you had was an overweight in mining service stocks which led to under performance of the portfolio. This under performance may or may not have led you to change your investment strategy around 15 months ago.

The mining services space have certainly come alive in the last 3-6 months... many of the names have rallied 50-500% off their lows (and they were very low lows). Perhaps semi-validating your initial long term strategy...

Do you know how the stocks you've sold have performed since? I haven't been keeping track and don't really want to go thru your thread looking for the transactions. So if you have a summary it would be interesting to see.

It feels like your new strategy is doing well... a combination of good stock picks and good momentum in the small Ords. So I am guessing you are much better off compared to a "keep holding" approach?
 
skc said:
Been thinking about your stocks recently, KTP.

One big issue you had was an overweight in mining service stocks which led to under performance of the portfolio. This under performance may or may not have led you to change your investment strategy around 15 months ago.

The mining services space have certainly come alive in the last 3-6 months... many of the names have rallied 50-500% off their lows (and they were very low lows). Perhaps semi-validating your initial long term strategy...

Do you know how the stocks you've sold have performed since? I haven't been keeping track and don't really want to go thru your thread looking for the transactions. So if you have a summary it would be interesting to see.

It feels like your new strategy is doing well... a combination of good stock picks and good momentum in the small Ords. So I am guessing you are much better off compared to a "keep holding" approach?
Click to expand...


Hi skc,

Apologies for the late reply, been away on holidays where reading emails/forums was an activity forbidden by my family.

That's an excellent suggestion, one I've been meaning to do but never got around to do it.

The stocks that I've sold, would have returned 32.3% if I've kept them.
Stocks that I've bought instead have returned 35.5%.

This is without dividends, the newer strategy would have had a higher dividend yield as well.

So, in hindsight, keeping with my original strategy would have resulted in a return almost as good as the new strategy.

But, there's always a but!, the entire return was due to just one stock - SSM.

It would have a been a flat result without that one stock, and the list included 3 bankruptcies. The new strategy resulted in a slightly better overall number, as well as much safer portfolio. In a way, this validates both my original strategy, as well as the decision to move away from it.

Thanks for asking!



Time for my monthly update too - portfolio returned $2,646 (5%) for the month. Excellent results for some of my holdings, although I haven't yet had a chance to read any annual reports.

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KnowThePast said:
The stocks that I've sold, would have returned 32.3% if I've kept them.
Stocks that I've bought instead have returned 35.5%.

This is without dividends, the newer strategy would have had a higher dividend yield as well.

So, in hindsight, keeping with my original strategy would have resulted in a return almost as good as the new strategy.

But, there's always a but!, the entire return was due to just one stock - SSM.
Click to expand...

Interesting analysis. Thanks for your response.
 
Sold SNL, 800 @ $1.93 for a loss of $147.90
Bought TSM, 6451 @ $0.315

A couple of buy orders pending on less liquid stocks as well - time to do some rebalancing.
 
Realised that TSM is going to be delisted in the near future - silly me!

Sold TSM @ 0.315, $60 mistake.

Bought ASW, 2700 @ 0.75.

Two buy orders still partially complete/pending and I'll be mostly done with this flurry of trading activity for the year.
 
levin123 said:
I've been looking at GLH but was put off but the lack of liquidity. Would be interested to know your reasoning?
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Hi levin,

Most of my trades are automated these days, I do a bit of research to override the system from doing something silly, but no more than that.

What triggered my filters to include it was the fact that it's revenue growth resumed and it is organic growth.

They are a relatively new, niche software company - these often have EBITDA margin in excess of 35%, so this one could well become more profitable at existing revenue base.

Liquidity is definitely a concern - I try and make sure I don't have too many stocks this thin.

There's also a very good thread on GLH on ASF - big thanks to Ves for doing some excellent analysis ~3 years ago. The conclusion at the time was that the company was valued too highly by the market at the time. Well, it is trading at the same price now as it did back then, but the business looks a lot better.
 
KnowThePast said:
Hi levin,

Most of my trades are automated these days, I do a bit of research to override the system from doing something silly, but no more than that.

What triggered my filters to include it was the fact that it's revenue growth resumed and it is organic growth.

They are a relatively new, niche software company - these often have EBITDA margin in excess of 35%, so this one could well become more profitable at existing revenue base.

Liquidity is definitely a concern - I try and make sure I don't have too many stocks this thin.

There's also a very good thread on GLH on ASF - big thanks to Ves for doing some excellent analysis ~3 years ago. The conclusion at the time was that the company was valued too highly by the market at the time. Well, it is trading at the same price now as it did back then, but the business looks a lot better.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the write up KTP :)
 
Monthly update - portfolio has gone up $526.54 (1%).

Capture.PNG

In related news, I am now working in partnership with a new startup that will bring revolutionary new equity analysis tools to retail investors. The kind of things that normally only institutions have will be available on an affordable subscription basis.

My backtesting engine will be part of it - users will be able to create their own backtests as well as run better known, pre-canned once.

Stay tuned - more to come in the next few months..
 
I wish everyone a Merry Christmas, a Happy New Year and I hope you enjoy the break.

That you for all the members of the site, as well as Joe and moderators for running it! I do not write much, but many of you have influenced me greatly with what you contributed.
 
KnowThePast said:
Monthly update - portfolio has gone up $526.54 (1%).

View attachment 68979

In related news, I am now working in partnership with a new startup that will bring revolutionary new equity analysis tools to retail investors. The kind of things that normally only institutions have will be available on an affordable subscription basis.

My backtesting engine will be part of it - users will be able to create their own backtests as well as run better known, pre-canned once.

Stay tuned - more to come in the next few months..
Click to expand...

Hi Know

Really in-depth post and long running too.

Well done for your dedication to improvement and also for sharing your experiences and issues.

Looking at the yearly figures given in a Rudimentary analysis

The geomean of your active portfolio is ~4.9%
small cap is ~6.8%
all ords is ~7.38%

Standard deviation
active portfolio ~10.87%
small cap is ~5.64%
all ords is ~6.6%

It is good to see the improvement year on year.

But you are returning less than the market given these stats.

However to properly evaluate alpha, I was wondering whether you had more accurate figures, such as lesser time frames and more details.. etc etc

1) Do your returns include bank interest?
2) Do your returns include brokerage
3) Do you returns include tax differences, e.g cgt 50% discount
4) Are dividends are adjusted for imputation
5) what is the volatility and or standard deviation of portfolio

As a side note how much time do you spend on managing your portfolio,

Given the portfolio is $50,000

Say alpha you produce of 5%, which is very good.

Then the additional gain would be $2500 increasing at 5% per year

Which is not a lot for hours and hours of the effort and time.

But great if down in 2-3 hours a week.



However it is enjoyable as a hobby and the loss of a couple of % here or there and time is not a supremely expensive hobby.

Plus you have only a few years of data, in a long term 20-30 year horizon, that is quite small.

I hope I have not asked too much

cheers
 

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