MQG - Macquarie Group

[Naked shorts]

Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well.
You really are the King.
Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers

He never said he was king, he said "(holding your capital) in cash is king".

What ever you do, and the sooner more people realize this the better, do not spite people who are making money in this market. They are the only ones who can get everyone out of this mess. Greed is the only way out. The banning of short selling has got to be the dumbest thing in human history. Instead of some people making money from the price fall (who are then able to go out and spend that money in the economy), no one makes money which makes the problem even worse.

 

[cutz]

Yeah but even with pure shorting banned on financials there has always been a way(s) to circumvent this via other means legally, so IMO the ban has been beneficial to shorters as there is no need to worry about covering rallies that can catch you out.

 

[nomore4s]

Babka may have overstated his point a touch, but I have noticed that this thread really attracts postings when the Mac bank Sp is on the plunge. Remember good people hindsight is of no use to us in this game.

Babka if we are ever lucky enough to see this investment climb, just see how quiet this thread will become

Nick you've been on this forum long enough to know threads get more active when a price is falling or rising sharply.

As for hindsight, I'm not sure what more you want - there were posters saying there was a high probablity of $15.00 and below while the price was over $20.00.

Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well.
You really are the King.
Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers

Not sure what the point of this post is - a bit bitter are we? If you have lost money on this stock deal with it, most of us have lost money on our investments in the last 18 months.

We are in a major bear market atm caused by an excessive credit bubble by stocks like MQG. The people bearish on this stock are bearish for a reason and the sp is proving those bearish sentiments correct atm. I will eventually be bullish on this stock but not yet.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I do like stocks that have been nearly $100 and are now approaching $15.

MQG is one of these.

It needs to trend sideways in a trading range before any sensible person would punt on it.

I believe it has many superior people working for it earning large amounts of money for destroying investor wealth.

I have posted on its business model previously, sell a product, provide the cash for the buyers, charge fees for the realisation of the entity, and take fees for its continuation. Perfick.

Now back to reality.

$15.75 seems to me technically to be a very important price for this little doggie.

It has recently been the price that the highest volume of punters have decided as fair value. It has gone down to $15 and now it is $16 plus.

I will use this line as an important indication of future movement.

If it trades consistently below this then $10 is not far away. If it moves sideways with increasing volume along this line then it may be in for a recovery.

gg

 

[Naked shorts]

Garpal Gumnut

Just because a stock has been $100, doesn't mean that they will instantly jump back up to $100 after this recession, it might take 15 years...

 

[Macquack]

Macquarie ‘Satellite’ Fund Model Questioned on Losses
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5LXPyRZuBeU&refer=asia

March 11 (Bloomberg)
Macquarie Group Ltd.’s 14 publicly traded funds have lost a combined A$3.9 billion of market value this year, fueling speculation Australia’s largest investment bank will write down assets and raise money.

On Feb. 27, Macquarie said it had no need to raise funds after announcing earlier that month it had a A$2.9 billion “buffer” over minimum capital requirements as of Dec. 31.

UBS AG analysts led by Jonathan Mott said Feb. 26 that the value of Macquarie’s equity stakes in satellite funds may be about A$1.5 billion below the firm’s own Sept. 30 valuation.

Writing down the assets to reflect that gap could put Macquarie at risk of breaching capital requirements, forcing the company to raise money, the analysts said in a research note.

 

[nikemi]

Macquarie ‘Satellite’ Fund Model Questioned on Losses
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a5LXPyRZuBeU&refer=asia

March 11 (Bloomberg)
Macquarie Group Ltd.’s 14 publicly traded funds have lost a combined A$3.9 billion of market value this year, fueling speculation Australia’s largest investment bank will write down assets and raise money.

On Feb. 27, Macquarie said it had no need to raise funds after announcing earlier that month it had a A$2.9 billion “buffer” over minimum capital requirements as of Dec. 31.

UBS AG analysts led by Jonathan Mott said Feb. 26 that the value of Macquarie’s equity stakes in satellite funds may be about A$1.5 billion below the firm’s own Sept. 30 valuation.

Writing down the assets to reflect that gap could put Macquarie at risk of breaching capital requirements, forcing the company to raise money, the analysts said in a research note.

This article relates to events two weeks ago and though i am not sure what has actually been update there it does not seem to conatain any new information?! or is there something i am missing???

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Garpal Gumnut

Just because a stock has been $100, doesn't mean that they will instantly jump back up to $100 after this recession, it might take 15 years...

Thanks Naked, but if you read my posts I would predict that MQB will go under a dollar.

I've been bearish on this Merchant Bank/Potofgoldforinsiders since it was $14 on the way up!

Its a dog

Technically its being pushed up to levels where insiders can sell out .

It is a very sick puppie.

A chart

A long term downtrend.

And a short term downtrend.

I won't depress holders with moving averages.

Note the low volumes.

A miracle will pick it up, bad news and theres lots of it about will increase volumes and if the price goes down its going to be very very ugly

gg

 

[M34N]

No-one posting in here today? Has been performing well lately, especially today, up above $20 comfortably today, lets watch how it closes and where. Looking positive and volume increasing slowly but EMA still looks like it's heading down. Like I said in my posts before, clearly tracking the US markets and that will set the tone for this stock, so as long as the Dow keeps heading up this one will too.

I wonder where the rise will stop and where the next support/resistance line is since $20 is broken? Anyone willing to place bets?

Still looking a bit shaky despite the slow rising uptrend, all it takes is one bad night on the Dow and you can lose 10% in the blink of an eye!

 

[M34N]

Well I was in on Monday just above $20 and out today at $23, happy to book that one in and feel this rally is a bit overdone and due for a few down days.

I noticed a lot of people have gone MIA on this one now that it has rebounded well above $20, no-one else believes it's worth commenting on? What a great one to trade this has been lately, well done to those who bought in and rode it up too.

 

[skc]

Well I was in on Monday just above $20 and out today at $23, happy to book that one in and feel this rally is a bit overdone and due for a few down days.

I noticed a lot of people have gone MIA on this one now that it has rebounded well above $20, no-one else believes it's worth commenting on? What a great one to trade this has been lately, well done to those who bought in and rode it up too.

This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds.
It's coming up against its longer term down trend and resistance at Sep/Oct low of ~$25...so may run out of steam soon.

Well done on the trade. I would have shorted the stock at $20 and would have covered this morning given how strong the US was last night. Thank you ASIC for the short selling ban.

 

[prawn_86]

Well done to those that have traded this.

I would like to know what DJDutts thinks of the situation? Taking some off the table, or think it will continue higher?

I'll be interested to see if $20 holds as support again when it does pull back

 

[M34N]

This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds.
It's coming up against its longer term down trend and resistance at Sep/Oct low of ~$25...so may run out of steam soon.

Well done on the trade. I would have shorted the stock at $20 and would have covered this morning given how strong the US was last night. Thank you ASIC for the short selling ban.

Well that's why I got out quickly, figured the momentum was there to push it higher in this rally, which has been based on mostly financials rebounding and it wasn't difficult to pick that the stock that got punished the most would rebound the most (like I said in earlier/previous posts). Based the sell on it hitting the downtrend as seen in GG's post above, and wasn't interested in getting caught holding when I could book in a 14% profit for 3 days of holding. More than happy with that in this environment and you have to trade the sharp rallies if you plan on making any money now.

Suspect this rally may be ending soon, or we may get another short sell-off and a bit higher again. Good luck to any holders, I suspect it will go down to around $20 here, and that will be what makes me decide to buy in again or not.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

This sharp rally has been unbelievable - over 50% from low of $15 to high of $23.5. It has coincided with the strong gains in various satellite funds.

Was just thinking the same

Unbelievable volatility, really feel for anyone who got stopped out of a margin or derivative position at $15

I should pay closer attention to the banks

 

[gooner]

I sold a third of my holding at the open this morning. I bought at $32 and then a lot at $20 then followed it down to $15, but held my faith. However, concerned shorters may hit it again, so decided to pull some money out in case it heads back down again

 

[legs]

IMHO it will be $30 before end of month...

US printing cash to prop things up.. its all good for this stock type.

 

[stl_08]

bought it at 17.89 so I'm a happy boy, does anyone have any ideas about what's driving this stock? And who plus doing most of the buying?

 

[dmagnus]

who's doing the buying? that would be me =)

the haters are real quiet atm!

When other financials realise there's money to be made in a new market or a new venture, Macquarie has already been there for 3 years...

how could you not love these guys, despite their lack of media savvy

 

[skyQuake]

Macq is savvy enough to engineer its own squeeze..
Volatility breeds more volatility so I suppose its doing well.

 

[nomore4s]

IMHO it will be $30 before end of month...

US printing cash to prop things up.. its all good for this stock type.

Nice ramp

the haters are real quiet atm!

how could you not love these guys, despite their lack of media savvy

It's not about loving or hating any stock. It's all about trading them for a profit. As the post below shows I tried to trade this bounce but missed, also missed an entry signal on the 6/03/09, if we now get a dip with good vol attributes I will look for an entry. Would have traded it at short at various stages if I could have as well.

Nothing has happened to change this analysis. I now expect a bounce back towards $22-$23, which I tried to trade today but missed, will look for another entry though. ATM I think we will see $15 again and probably lower but will have to see how things play out in the general market as well.