MQG - Macquarie Group

djdutts · 20 February 2009

jackson8 said:
if you look at the fall from grace of all the banks, resource stocks and the rest ........how do you determine what is good value ???

Agreed - but the fall from grace is not forever. There WILL be a bounce. The stocks WILL recover. Australia's most-successful investment bank at that rate means to me that it is good value. I believe that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy, and MQG is one of the best.

Remember, all things that fall have to stop and rebound sooner or later.

prawn_86 · 20 February 2009

djdutts said:
Remember, all things that fall have to stop and rebound sooner or later.

Just like Japan did hey? Their index was 40000ish in the 90's now its 8000ish and never reached its highs again.

You seem to be making a newbies mistake of assuming it WILL bounce again. What if its not for ten years? Or twenty? Or ever?

If you held 1k of every stock when the DOW was created how much would you have? ZERO, all those co's have gone broke. (Thanks to TH for that one )

EDIT - People were saying the same as your quote for BNB, AFG, ABS etc etc. Think about it

djdutts · 20 February 2009

prawn_86 said:
Just like Japan did hey? Their index was 40000ish in the 90's now its 8000ish and never reached its highs again.

You seem to be making a newbies mistake of assuming it WILL bounce again. What if its not for ten years? Or twenty? Or ever?

If you held 1k of every stock when the DOW was created how much would you have? ZERO, all those co's have gone broke. (Thanks to TH for that one )

EDIT - People were saying the same as your quote for BNB, AFG, ABS etc etc. Think about it

Newbies? I've been trading for seven years and have nearly $700k worth of stock! Hardly a newbie! Just the first time I've been on these forums.

BNB went bang as they tried to copy the MQG model.

sammy84 · 20 February 2009

BNB and MQG are entirely different entities. The quality of assets and the amount of leverage differences set them miles apart. Have to agree with prawn however, a bounce is never a certainty. Whilst I do anticipate the MQG will recover, who knows how low MQG will go till that bounce happens...

djdutts · 20 February 2009

sammy84 said:
BNB and MQG are entirely different entities. The quality of assets and the amount of leverage differences set them miles apart. Have to agree with prawn however, a bounce is never a certainty. Whilst I do anticipate the MQG will recover, who knows how low MQG will go till that bounce happens...

Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.

sammy84 · 20 February 2009

djdutts said:
Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.

Its nice to see that the Bull isn't extinct yet

prawn_86 · 20 February 2009

djdutts said:
Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.

What do you class as a bounce? What if it keeps falling, but then bounces, but not back to a level where some poeple have bought it? They will still be at a loss

SOme would argue that its better to wait for an uptrend to be confuirmed before buying again, rather than trying to catch a falling knife

djdutts · 20 February 2009

Yep, good point.

I'll be buying more at $20 tho!

JTLP · 20 February 2009

DJDutts...a few questions if you wouldn't mind answering:

1) For someone who has 700k of stock and doesn't know what falling knives are...how can this be the case? You're not exactly a small fish in the retail sector with cash like that...but it can be forgiven so i'll continue

2) Why do you think MQG will bounce? And the market in second half of '09? People have asked for analysis...can you provide any? What if I tout that MQG will crash because of their complex model and apparent funding of dividends through evaluations? Does that mean I'm write...especially if I write "it's a certainty!"

3) If you don't mind me asking...at what price did you originally buy MQG at? Or has your keen eye and awareness for 'value' picking spotted MQG and dived in?

4) I'm no Mod but can the one line answers like "it's a certainty!" be removed...seriously it's just hocus and makes this great site resemble a rather unsavoury other stock forum

Thanks...

M34N · 20 February 2009

MQG is another one I've been watching lately, the past week or two have seen it hit the lows of last year and before that, 2002. Just looking at the 3 year chart below, it may have a bit further to go down before it breaks up. A few stocks are looking like this, replicating the Dow and it doesn't look positive to be honest. It held the low of last year around $20 today (I think the low was $20.08 to be exact? Someone else may confirm)

Just off the chart, the point it may rebound off seems to be around $10, but $20 is strong support, which has held since the last bull market began in 2003 and I reckon it should hold for now, probably going to rebound to around $30 or so before next leg down? Still see nothing to support this stock, EMA and MACD look like it's pointing down, but I reckon it's just going to trend the Dow and will continue to do so.

Personally after analysing this stock, I reckon there are plenty of other stocks that offer greater reward for less risk

Gundini · 20 February 2009

djdutts said:
Yep, good point.

I'll be buying more at $20 tho!

While I don't disagree with any on the comments here, I do think MQG is becoming reasonable value.

I listened to their last presentation, not all, it was long and boring for the most, but I heard enough to see solid growth in a variety of areas, and believe the company is aware of the world crisis and has the clout to move forward.

From memory they have something like $40 Bill in cash under the bed.

They have a stimulus package sitting under the bed!

Do they have skeletons? Maybe... Could they have issues? Definately...

But the sales are on, and these guys are near clearance prices...

Once the next leg down kicks in, I will seriously anchor this one in the portfolio.

PS: The DOW looks angry tonight...

prana · 20 February 2009

I don't get it. If someone likes the stock, they buy it. If someone doesn't like it, they sell it - this is the freemarket. I don't see why the constant argument about I'm right, you're wrong - why does it have to get personal all the time ? If a person feels $20 is compelling, then put your order in - again what's with the personal attacks ? Does someone who own $700k need to know the definition of a falling knife ? Maybe $700k for this person is 0.5% of his/her total allocation, and $7k may be 50% of yours, is this a measure of competence ? This is getting pointless...

Put your order where your mouth is Have a great weekend :

Gundini · 20 February 2009

prana said:
This is getting pointless...

:

I agree with every with everything you have said, but this phrase.

It is not pointless when individuals offer their opinions on a public forum, of such high standing as ASF. All posters have various degree of experience, and only a person who has spent the time to think things through come here for confirmation of their idea.

If their idea is flawed, it will get shot down.

If it is solid, it will be supported!

It is not personal, it is a final checking point before you part with your cash!

Anyway, this is off topic...

jackson8 · 20 February 2009

prana said:
I don't get it. If someone likes the stock, they buy it. If someone doesn't like it, they sell it - this is the freemarket. I don't see why the constant argument about I'm right, you're wrong - why does it have to get personal all the time ? If a person feels $20 is compelling, then put your order in - again what's with the personal attacks ? Does someone who own $700k need to know the definition of a falling knife ? Maybe $700k for this person is 0.5% of his/her total allocation, and $7k may be 50% of yours, is this a measure of competence ? This is getting pointless...

Put your order where your mouth is Have a great weekend :

the market itself is an expression of both sides of the coin
the buyers have their beliefs in a stock and the sellers have their own beliefs ........ two opposing views

thats what this forum is about both sides being able to express their views on any given topic

its not a personal attack to ask someone to give some analysis of there view as to why they believe a stock is good value no more than asking the opposing position to do the same

recommendations one way or the other without analysis or explanation could be viewed as spruiking , ramping or down ramping

Julia · 20 February 2009

JTLP said:
DJDutts...a few questions if you wouldn't mind answering:

2) Why do you think MQG will bounce? And the market in second half of '09? People have asked for analysis...can you provide any?

4) I'm no Mod but can the one line answers like "it's a certainty!" be removed...seriously it's just hocus and makes this great site resemble a rather unsavoury other stock forum

Thanks...

jackson8 said:
the market itself is an expression of both sides of the coin
the buyers have their beliefs in a stock and the sellers have their own beliefs ........ two opposing views

thats what this forum is about both sides being able to express their views on any given topic

its not a personal attack to ask someone to give some analysis of their view as to why they believe a stock is good value no more than asking the opposing position to do the same

recommendations one way or the other without analysis or explanation could be viewed as spruiking , ramping or down ramping

Exactly so. DJ Jutts: you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?

Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
With thanks.

Garpal Gumnut · 21 February 2009

Julia said:
Exactly so. DJ Jutts: you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?

Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
With thanks.

Your question is moot Julia.

One would be brave to be long MQG.

Their model has led us in to this debacle, debt, funny figures, on-selling of debt as capital.

I'm not a funnymentalist, so will leave the figures to my betters.

The chart says it all.

This is a dog, headed for less than $10 , I do not hold thank god

gg

nomore4s · 21 February 2009

djdutts said:
Newbies? I've been trading for seven years and have nearly $700k worth of stock! Hardly a newbie! Just the first time I've been on these forums.

BNB went bang as they tried to copy the MQG model.

But the question is what was this portfolio worth a year ago? If you have a portfolio that large I have no doubt you have lost a fair portion of it in the last 12 months, the larger the portfolio the harder to liquidate it, there would also be tax implications after 7 years in the bull market we just had.

You have said nothing that points to any sort of decent research or insight. All I see is MQG must be good value at these prices because it's (was?) Australias best investment bank, wtf? That is newbie analysis as already pointed out.
You have brushed off questions of how you came to these conlusions with more general sweeping comments. Not one decent bit of analysis in all your posts.

djdutts said:
Agree - MQG is a different class altogether. I disagree about the bounce - that is a certainty, just a question of when. I predict second half of 09 will be a marked improvement.

Again define a bounce?
By bounce do you mean a sustained uptreand or just a bear rally bounce before falling to new lows?
If MQG is good value now it will be great value at $15 or maybe $12?
If you're so sure about the market rebounding in the 2nd half of 09 why buy now?

FWIW I think MQG is a good chance will be the first bank to drop its D/E, as I find it hard to believe they have managed to get through the credit crunch unscathed.

nomore4s · 21 February 2009

I agree GG. My target atm in $12-$15 but in this market it could very well overshoot that.

MQG is actually very weak compared to the general market atm and is the weakest bank atm.. While the XAO has been consolidating MQG has been heading down, if the XAO breaks down it could get real ugly for MQG.

On the attached chart you the lines on the left are the thrusts down and as you can see there is no slowing at all. There is no signs of a turn around - no base - no positive volume. While we may see some sort of bounce it in the future it will be just that - a bounce imo.

If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market

Julia · 21 February 2009

Garpal Gumnut said:
Your question is moot Julia.

One would be brave to be long MQG.....................

You don't need to convince me, gg!
My post was an attempt to have DJDutts justify his comments.
Nothing more.

ROE · 21 February 2009

nomore4s said:
If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market

Their book is a maze it took a PhD in Quantum Physic to figure it out do you have a PhD in Physics? then dont look hahah

all their satellite funds are doggy as hell losing money year in year out and using valuation as a way to calculate profit ...while debt rack up higher and higher in these funds...

now that is the hall mark of a great company

MQG - Macquarie Group

djdutts

prawn_86

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