MQG - Macquarie Group

[tigerboi]

MINTY HOW ABOUT WE GO AND PUT THE BOOT INTO THEM POOR &^%$%$# ON THE BNB THREAD AT LEAST OUR STOCK IS ABOVE A $1:fu:AND THERE DOWN 21% TODAY (POOR &$%$#@)

classic jj!id join ya but i getz meself into drama over there!with mqg id wait much longer to see it play out as surely it will head lower,it has cash i believe so it wont go over but get a giant hair cut...then get in,but me i stay away from the banks,cnp/bnb...they tell too many porkies to the shareholders for my liking...tb

 

[Kuri]

Sorry to hear about your lost but why sell out at $28?
if you already left it fall that far?

Losing money is never easy but over time other gains will make up

I found this an interesting thought ROE. I am one of the crazy people who bought in at 70 and was rubbing my hands at high 80's not long after. Due to the mixed messages I have held on and am obviously looking at a loss of about $3k at todays price. Looking at your reply you are different than every one else thinking at this loss it is better to hold and wait for a rebound. Do you think it will make it back to the mid 40's?

Interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I dont know what all the drama is - MQG exited the US Mortage market back in 2007 and only have some exposure in Canada. Oh well, i guss one should be greedy when others are fearful.

Cheers

Interesting point.

Can you expand?

Buy in fear etc etc

MQG are on the nose, have been and may be in the future.

Yours is a light shining amongst a veritable rain of s**t on this shorters dream.

gg

 

[The Mint Man]

Interesting point.

Can you expand?

Buy in fear etc etc

MQG are on the nose, have been and may be in the future.

Yours is a light shining amongst a veritable rain of s**t on this shorters dream.

gg

Is it possible a few of those shorters said 'thats enough' today? I noticed in the last hour or so it came from nowhere on comsecs top buys list to be at the top by days end.

Cheers

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is it possible a few of those shorters said 'thats enough' today? I noticed in the last hour or so it came from nowhere on comsecs top buys list to be at the top by days end.

Cheers

MQG is in a similar position at this time as AFG and BNB were earlier this year.

It has been built on a model of internal debt and fees supporting/dependent on external debt , high rewards for ordinary guys and girls in the mosh, and an inability to smooze the doubters of this model.

It has had a good Cash Management Trust which I have maintained for one (the major) of my entities, my accountant says it is second to none for chasing the snail trail of divvies come tax time.

Today I have closed out all my holdings vaguely related to MQG. , CMT, warrants etc.

MQG is stuffed, it is a dead parrot.

It is so highly geared that its demise will be a chartists dream, down a lot , up a bit etc etc.

I enclose a chart which is an amateur's attempt at EW analysis , to the end of Sept it will sit at $17.50.

Will I ever say MQG is a buy.

Yagottabijohkin

gg

ps I have charts which I am unable to post getting MQG back to $8 and $4.

Could be the case The Mint Man but beware of higher highs and lows in a long term downtrend.

It would be interesting to count the number of toilet rolls used this week in Macquarie headquarters compared to 12 mo ago.

gg

 

[Julia]

Like your honesty X1852 I'm down a few k (15 in fact ) on MQG but it's amazing all the good advise which is floating around after the fact

Justjohn, if you haven't noticed all the multiple notes of caution and warning about MQG for more than two years now, you just haven't been looking.

 

[white_goodman]

what happens if MQG does a lehmans? what company in Australia could afford to buy them out, would the RBA fix the situation?

 

[Warren Buffet II]

"While we believe the hedge fund 'short Macquarie' arguments do not bear closer scrutiny, the direction of Macquarie's price is telling us Macquarie is broken," JPMorgan analysts Brian Johnson, Scott Manning and David Disney-Willis wrote in a note to clients.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24364740-462,00.html


WBII

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A chart is better than a thousand words.

MQB is heading for uncharted waters.

It looks sad.

gg


sorry too few characters ignore following fe fi fo fum i smell the blood of an english mun

 

[Kuri]

"While we believe the hedge fund 'short Macquarie' arguments do not bear closer scrutiny, the direction of Macquarie's price is telling us Macquarie is broken," JPMorgan analysts Brian Johnson, Scott Manning and David Disney-Willis wrote in a note to clients.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24364740-462,00.html


WBII

Once again WBII the article is speaking in double dutch as it also states, 'JPMorgan has an "overweight" rating on Macquarie and has a share price target of $71.58 at June 2009'...S&P yesterday reaffirmed Macquarie's long and short term credit ratings.

"The financial and business fundamentals of the Macquarie Group are unlikely to be materially affected by the current dislocation in financial markets."


This is what makes it hard for the individual investor to make sense whether to sell out and take the loss or to dollar cost down and hold for two years.

Decisions, decisions...

 

[nick2fish]

"Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd plunged more than 23 per cent to a near five and a half year low amid ongoing concerns that the Australia's biggest investment bank could have trouble refinancing debt.

The fall comes despite ratings agency Moody's Investors Service affirming the group's its stable outlook and credit ratings."

Rumor and inuendo costing Macbank investors sh*tloads

The saying... where there is smoke there is fire should be changed too

Where there is smoke there is a hedge fund

Shame on all you guys who have stayed quite all these months apart from a couple and come in now with I told you so.

Even more unbelievable is that you don't even own any shares in the company
Like I would listen to an ex owner who pulled out when the downturn happened or later and posted thier opinion on this blog for all to see

If you can't say anything nice , better to not say anything IMO
Your opinion can't help anyone now , MQG is gone

12 months ago brokers were overweight on this stock

Nothing has been proven yet and you can probably speculate better on the doom and gloom thread and spare threads such as MQG and BNB from your I told you so's.

Also with MAC and BNB gone the hedge funds will turn there gaze elsewhere ...ah FMG

IMO

 

[skyQuake]

I'll stick my neck out and defend MQG. It's really not that screwed...

18mil volume and that massive gap there... looks like capitulation to me. Sellers couldn't even be shaken off in the arvo rally.


Imo its just being sold off by funds cause its an IB. However macq has no subprime exposure, most of its profits come from fund management, traditional IB, and advisory services. Its cheap credit funding assets model spins off those assets into external funds. So while it may not be selling off repackaged assets anymore, it still has its retail banking division to fall back upon.

People have been putting it in the same category as Lehmans, JPMorgan, Sterns, UBS, GS, ML etc... (and prob babcock too). This misconception will eventually be corrected and craploads of short covering to occur.

 

[nomore4s]

Skyquake alot of that vol is due to the options expiry or whatever today, not a true indication of the vol.

The weak close doesn't bode well considering all the other banks closed on the highs.

My bet is maybe a small bounce (to around $34-$36) to come soon and then down past these lows.

 

[Pager]

Time will tell with MQG but just look at the volume going through, this isnt just hedge funds shorting.

The same sort of selling occured in other companys like CNP, BNB, AFG just to mention a few, each of which was saying positive things before the real truth emerged, maybe MQG will survive and this is an over reaction but i find it hard to believe they dont have any problems/exposure to the meltdown that has occured.

 

[nomore4s]

i find it hard to believe they dont have any problems/exposure to the meltdown that has occured.

So do I.

I'm sure they have some exposure to the problems, just depends on how much and how well they can contain it.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I said before that Morgan Stanley had 180 billions in liquidity but I didn't mention the source, here it is:

"After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads," Mack wrote.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/17/new...isis.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008091719

So my point is and this goes against all those thinking that because MQG has some money available and because is a bank and because APRA and all that crap, the reality is what the market believes.

I am 100% sure that the market at this point in time believes either MQG is broken or they are hiding something, as simple as that. Is that true or false, I can't tell you and none here can, just give them a few more months and we will know the true once the credit spreads bites.


WBII

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

"Shares in Macquarie Group Ltd plunged more than 23 per cent to a near five and a half year low amid ongoing concerns that the Australia's biggest investment bank could have trouble refinancing debt.

The fall comes despite ratings agency Moody's Investors Service affirming the group's its stable outlook and credit ratings."

Rumor and inuendo costing Macbank investors sh*tloads

The saying... where there is smoke there is fire should be changed too

Where there is smoke there is a hedge fund

Shame on all you guys who have stayed quite all these months apart from a couple and come in now with I told you so.

Even more unbelievable is that you don't even own any shares in the company
Like I would listen to an ex owner who pulled out when the downturn happened or later and posted thier opinion on this blog for all to see

If you can't say anything nice , better to not say anything IMO
Your opinion can't help anyone now , MQG is gone

12 months ago brokers were overweight on this stock

Nothing has been proven yet and you can probably speculate better on the doom and gloom thread and spare threads such as MQG and BNB from your I told you so's.

Also with MAC and BNB gone the hedge funds will turn there gaze elsewhere ...ah FMG

IMO

nick mate,

go over the MBL MQG AFG and BNB posts.

read them all

you were warned

its not a conspiracy.

its a lousy business model.

we warned you because jokers like you pushed the price of these stocks up and have now buggered the market.

if you don't like the criticism, tough.

read every post mate, its all there.

gg

 

[nick2fish]

nick mate,

go over the MBL MQG AFG and BNB posts.

read them all

you were warned

its not a conspiracy.

its a lousy business model.

we warned you because jokers like you pushed the price of these stocks up and have now buggered the market.

if you don't like the criticism, tough.

read every post mate, its all there.

gg

Hi garpal ,
Business model has been around for centuries mate , please don't confuse Mac with sub prime securitisations that have lead to the demise of some great institutions.

This has caused the cost of credit to rise which will effect MQG.

What I was trying to say is when a stock has dived why jump in with your opinion when obivously it has no positive effect... ie: buyer beware ... after a 24% fall they already are

It's a bit simplistic of you to say that a buyer of an investment bank can stuff the market up

Anyway this is my last post on the subject, but will will say MQG holders do what you must and good fortune

expected better than that from you Garpal as I have read some of your other posts

Just my opinion only cheers

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hi garpal ,
Business model has been around for centuries mate , please don't confuse Mac with sub prime securitisations that have lead to the demise of some great institutions.

This has caused the cost of credit to rise which will effect MQG.

What I was trying to say is when a stock has dived why jump in with your opinion when obivously it has no positive effect... ie: buyer beware ... after a 24% fall they already are

It's a bit simplistic of you to say that a buyer of an investment bank can stuff the market up

Anyway this is my last post on the subject, but will will say MQG holders do what you must and good fortune

expected better than that from you Garpal as I have read some of your other posts

Just my opinion only cheers

Apologies for any offence.

I have long been dubious about their business model, packaging and fee structure.

I don't admire their executives for their millions.

Although I do admire Twiggy Forrest for building Fortescue, good luck to him with his millions.

Best of luck with your investments
.

gg

 

[skyQuake]

Skyquake alot of that vol is due to the options expiry or whatever today, not a true indication of the vol.

The weak close doesn't bode well considering all the other banks closed on the highs.

My bet is maybe a small bounce (to around $34-$36) to come soon and then down past these lows.

SPI rollover today, oppies 25th. They would have screwd around with SQ in the morning but most of the vol came on in the arvo. I have absolutely no disagreement about the small bounce. (I had a $33 target just for gap close), but in essence, im saying macq can go lower but it wont go bankrupt. Good for a short term trade, reassess as market provides more clues.