MQG - Macquarie Group

[ROE]

Well the Big Kahuna (Alan Moss) is an early riser. He woke up back in May and swifty exited. Mind you, not before fleecing the company of another $100 million in the process.

Moss was last seen perusing waterfront property on island of Majorca.

Go back to the history of this post and most people smell fishy, he know what's coming and decided to retire when you are on top.

He famously reject claim about MQG model and ask investor when do people stop watching foxtel or drive through the toll road.. he implies that because they control these infrastructure and people will for go everything else before they turn off their foxtel etc..

I think he has his answer now .. When cheap debt are over and your funds are not making money, you pay more interest than revenue you generate you no longer in control and the longer you hold those inflated fund the more money you lose and people watching TV or not is irrelevant

 

[michael_selway]

Go back to the history of this post and most people smell fishy, he know what's coming and decided to retire when you are on top.

He famously reject claim about MQG model and ask investor when do people stop watching foxtel or drive through the toll road.. he implies that because they control these infrastructure and people will for go everything else before they turn off their foxtel etc..

I think he has his answer now .. When cheap debt are over and your funds are not making money, you pay more interest than revenue you generate you no longer in control and the longer you hold those inflated fund the more money you lose and people watching TV or not is irrelevant

Hehe yep Alan Moss is a smart man to leave at the right time

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
Curr 2009 2010 2011
EPS 653.5 557.9 642.2 701.9
DPS 345.0 345.0 345.0 381.6

Thx

MS

Date: 17/9/2008
Author: Adele Ferguson
Source: The Australian --- Page: 37
Australian-listed investment banking and infrastructure fund management firmMacquarie Group faces some problems related to its debt. It will need torefinance $A45bn by March 2009, and in September 2008 about 10% of this isproving to be difficult. The company's subordinated debt has risen to 500basis points and its senior debt to 320. While it is still performing betterthan rival Babcock & Brown, both are under increasing pressure to offloadassets, which Macquarie has not done for six months. On 16 September its stockclosed 7% lower at $A36.80 while Babcock was down a massive 49% to $A0.80

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/MQG.jpg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

MQG is in a similar position at this time as AFG and BNB were earlier this year.

It has been built on a model of internal debt and fees supporting/dependent on external debt , high rewards for ordinary guys and girls in the mosh, and an inability to smooze the doubters of this model.

It has had a good Cash Management Trust which I have maintained for one (the major) of my entities, my accountant says it is second to none for chasing the snail trail of divvies come tax time.

Today I have closed out all my holdings vaguely related to MQG. , CMT, warrants etc.

MQG is stuffed, it is a dead parrot.

It is so highly geared that its demise will be a chartists dream, down a lot , up a bit etc etc.

I enclose a chart which is an amateur's attempt at EW analysis , to the end of Sept it will sit at $17.50.

Will I ever say MQG is a buy.

Yagottabijohkin

gg

ps I have charts which I am unable to post getting MQG back to $8 and $4.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

MQG is stuffed and is getting more and more nervous by the time.

It is funny that this week they started confronting journalist for writing about their financial situation and then you see some other journos talking up the company big time (Are they getting any fees from MQG BTW?).

I wouldn't put any money on them anytime soon.

WBII

 

[Warren Buffet II]

With current market turnmoil and bad news circulating MQG I believe it will hit something below $30 today?

WBII

 

[michael_selway]

With current market turnmoil and bad news circulating MQG I believe it will hit something below $30 today?

WBII

Hm probably but woudl below $10 be a possibility anytime soon you think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
Curr 2009 2010 2011
EPS 653.5 557.9 642.2 701.9
DPS 345.0 345.0 345.0 381.6


thx

MS

 

[freddy2]

It is funny that this week they started confronting journalist for writing about their financial situation and then you see some other journos talking up the company big time (Are they getting any fees from MQG BTW?).

This is exactly what I have been thinking reading some of the recent articles given their ridiculously optimistic tone. However I doubt it as simple as this, probably some other form of quid pro quo is involved such as access to management.

 

[ROE]

Nasty dropped can only get worse when stock are this low, people start pulling out their deposit and cut ties with MQG

 

[deadset]

am I allowed to swear, I own some of this stock, definitely below $30 today, its gotten nasty already. Should I sell now or hold ? I should have just had a mid-life crisis and bought a sports car or something.

I remember on Friday thinking, "hmmm, I could sell now, how bad could it be next week ? hmmm, maybe the sky isn't falling after all, as if the financial system is going to melt down, they fixed it last weekend didn't they"

dit dow, wrong!

I think I better get a job and start calling myself a long term trader.

 

[Sunder]

I felt sorry for myself. Last week when it was over $40, I thought I'd short it, but then thought - well it's already been punished, there can't be much more to go... ANd left it alone.

Now I feel sorry for you... Hope your exposure isn't too big.

Lost opportunities are nothing like actual losses. :grenade:

 

[awg]

I hate writing this post

most of my Super Pension is via Maquarie and much of that is held in their CMT

I dont think I am able to get the monies into something more secure in the timeframe that I need to, due to the fact that I cant use Term deposits within a Wrap account.

There would be many individuals in my position.

what, in the opiniomn of other ASF posters, would be the timeframe and likelyhood of MQG either placing restrictions on withdrawls, or in a worst case scenario, becoming insolvent, with regard to regular pension payments, in particular.

I do have a seperate SMSF, but even it settles thru MQG CMT!

at least I can use other alternatives there, but the prospect outlined above is concerning me, nothwithstanding that if MQG goes insolvent, it would represent a financial doomsday scenario in Oz.

i have been concerned about this for a while, but events have moved too quickly for me

 

[Sunder]

You want an opinion, and I'll make it clear that it's an opinion only, and not to take it as advice.

I don't think Macquarie is going under. As recently as yesterday, they made it clear they are holding more than enough cash to cover any debt covenants that come up before March 2009.

If it isn't all over bar the screaming by then, the financial world is b0rked anyway, and you'd be in good company.

 

[ROE]

I dont think MQG going under either, it just their model is a bit risky
also as panic start to take shape.

people first reaction is to take their deposit out and put into a bigger bank like CBA and that reduce their access to cheap capital and so they becomes even risker with more expensive capital to pay.

 

[The Mint Man]

I echo ROE and sunder's comments, I don't think it is going under... It could even be a good opportunity to get in, at least short term anyway

I bought a heap around November last year just before things went pear shaped..... With the benefit of hindsight I would have sold out many times and bought back many times to catch the upside, would have made a packet but thats not really my style and could have been worse off than what I am now! who knows

The thing that makes me feel bad is that the money that I put into MQG was an inheritance from my grandmother, she never had alot and I feel like I've wasted what little she had to give.
Obviously there are thoughts of that renovation that I could have done to my house or simply paid that amount off the mortgage instead but hey, **** happens. Some might say thats a bad attitude but it's better than necking myself.

The one thing I've got going for me is that I'm 25, not 50 and planing for retirement. I know how I feel when I take a big loss so I can only imagine what it would feel like if I was much older.

I will be holding for the moment, no point in selling now as I suspect there will be a bounce soon, re consider my options then.

Cheers

 

[Bolivia]

Not sure why anyone would take their money out of Macquaries CMT because they fear for the future of MQG.

MQG has a banking license which means, as a deposit taker, deposits are guaranteed by the RBA. That is why thay have all the Tier 1 ratios etc and are regulated by APRA.

As for MQG I also don't think they will suffer the same fate as their OS counterparts. MQG has a very diverse earnings stream, much more than what Lehman Bros/Bears/Morgan Stanley etc. That is not to say the investment banking aspect hasn't been dealt a severe body blow. What it will mean is a reversion back to less risky more traditional wealth management services.

Lets face it, after all is said and done with this crisis, those that are left standing are certainly going to gain a massive amount of market share. And yes there will still be plenty of people and institutions with heaps of money.

Listening to fear mongering about people withdrawing funds without understanding the facts helps nobody.

Would I be buying MQG here? Well for the first time in the banks listed history, they are trading under their book value. Goldman Sachs last night traded at about 1.15 times it's book, while Morgan Stanley (which has alot more liquidity issues than MQG) traded at about .75 times Book value. So on a fundemental basis the bank is definately looking cheap. Can it go lower? Of course, but we will never know what the bottom is until after the fact, so I guess you just have to pick a target price and trade it from there. Technically I can see MQG getting to around $20 which where its lows were in 2002.

Good luck to all.

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I dont think MQG going under either, it just their model is a bit risky
also as panic start to take shape.

people first reaction is to take their deposit out and put into a bigger bank like CBA and that reduce their access to cheap capital and so they becomes even risker with more expensive capital to pay.

Well, saying that they have enough money to cover some of their debts means nothing in the current market. I read an article saying that I think Morgan Stanley has 180 Billions in cash and could pay most of its debts and they are strageling big time as they borrowing costs are up to the point they have to pay 10% extra each time for any money.

So they word out there is no matter what the CEO of any of those companies said, it is what they market say. No bank want to fund any other bank, and MQG will or have found that already and will crash its model pretty soon.

WBII

 

[awg]

Hi to all and thanks for the replies.

i did not wish to be overly alarmist.

i think the chance of MQG going under is extremely low.

my concern is based around the fact that virtually all of my super that i rely upon for 50% of my income, is settled thru MQG CMT.

i have always believed it is not a good idea to be reliant upon one institution,
and previously have always diversified, in that respect.

I have been in the process of that for a good while now, but am pinned by the CMT issue. The process of altering super pensions is drawn out and tedious, requiring much paperwork, and delay

The issue has only really come to the fore in the last 2 days.

I had found MQG to be one of the most difficult stocks to predict price movement, of any in my portfolio ( until I sold out recently).

levels of gearing and indebtedness, as per their financial statements, are not easily interpreted, and in my opinion, those interpretations could easily prove to be very wrong.

BNB is an example, although i would say, I at least was able to deduce it was one to stay away from...but i do know of one fellow who has shown himself to be very astute and made many good calls, who got caught on it.

If international liquidity becomes frozen, the MQG methodology would be unsustainable in the longer term?

 

[Warren Buffet II]

Morgan Stanley (which has alot more liquidity issues than MQG)

Sounds very funny, liquidity issues with 180 Billions available right now. No matter how much you have if you can borroww you are broke.

MQG has what 20B or 2B?

WBII

 

[xl852]

same as most of u guys,
really learnt a grand lesson this week.........
I bought it at 41, sold it at 28, lost 34k
I wish I can quit shares ,
anybody can tell me what should I do atm ?
wait till the market getting peaceful ??

 

[justjohn]

ROE .....hope your not in MQG & SUN.I'm in MQG and the shafting from this is painful enough, but to cope it from both ends