MQG - Macquarie Group
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Julia
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Excellent. So have you taken the profit?Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+.After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock
Btw I wouldn't have sold with the loss you were showing then either.
My point was to suggest recognising the downtrend some months ago, say when the stock moved below the MA October/November 07, and exiting then, thus preserving your profit if you'd been a long term holder.
But perhaps you weren't? Perhaps you bought into the downtrend?
And, if it's relevant, I have owned this stock. Got out at the point I described above.
Garpal Gumnut
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Thanks for the advice Julia but by not panicking and using common sense that this stock was grossly over sold, in 24hours I've turned a $15k defeciet into a $24K profit and that's missing todays highs of $38-$39+ .After a few years on the ASF you get use to the scare-mongering which takes place by certain people,especially by members who dont own the stock
They were probably off buying back their shorts, eating ours or both.
I got in with a small amount yesterday @ $26.80 and sold @ $34.80 on the bell today.... I was away for the best part of the day so I missed the 40-50% up I expected a bounce but not like that.... MQG even got a mention in the US Yahoo! finance articles
Cheers
And what are you going to do next justjohn, well done mate , it must have been a shocker of a day for you when it tanked.
A good buy and sell mint. A nice profit.
Agree Julia, interesting to see how it pans out, should be a charting play, although shorting being banned will take some momentum out of this stock, on the up as well as the down.
gg
Resumption of the down trend. $40.00 will become the very strong resistance.
.................................
white_goodman
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whats the go with the new CEO selling all his shares in the company off-market?
surely this is a sign not all is right over there
surely this is a sign not all is right over there
don't pay too much attention to broker recommendation, pay more attention on understand the business and how it makes its money.
I play a general rules when all brokers recommend Buy I sell...when they all said Sell I buy provided I understand the business and have fair probably I will make money on this stock.
15-18 months or so ago all broker recommend DMP Sell
I buy look at it, it survive the worse financial market melt down, it stock has been risen a fair bit from $2.20 when I bought to now at $3.30 and I pocket a fair share of dividend since then.
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Nobody knows the business like Alan Moss - the guy used to take two suitcases of reading material on his "holidays".
The valuation methods used to determined management fees hacked out of the satellite funds are fundamentlly flawed and as credit tightens, M&A activity dries up. The two biggest contributers to the MQG bottom line are going to struggle, which means a "Buying Opportunity" for MQG is coming up very soon, as there are two prossibilities that lay ahead:
a. Re-balance the valuation on utlities & infrastructure assets which will deliver a short term hit in management fee revenue
b. Keek the current valuations & wear the push credit costs back to the satellite funds to protect the parent entity, which will damage the management credibility of the Macquarie brand
They do have a much better liquidity position that their peers, however a ~250 basis point jump in their inter-bank lending rate is all the information I need to avoid a long position in Macquarie in it's current situation
You've got to wonder. I'm still not convinced on MQG. It will probably bounce a bit on Monday again, but it could be choppy. Good for a short on Monday pm. i think.
Btw, white_goodman, which broker do you use, if you don't mind me asking? I can't take a short out on MQG with the one i'm with.
white_goodman
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it was the new ceo nicholas moore, him as a person and his own private company have ZERO shares in MQG now, go check the anouncements its like the 12th of sept... im jsut suprised it hasnt been made such a big deal, unless im reading the announcement wrong.
yeh monday 3.45pm ill be looking to short, im currently short on it, but the damn US screwed that one up last night
white_goodman
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You've got to wonder. I'm still not convinced on MQG. It will probably bounce a bit on Monday again, but it could be choppy. Good for a short on Monday pm. i think.
Btw, white_goodman, which broker do you use, if you don't mind me asking? I can't take a short out on MQG with the one i'm with.
im with IG markets, its ok for me.... if it get near $40 then comes down a bit like friday itll be a short signal for me atleast...
also when the shorting ban ends in the US i think it may be a good opportunity to get shorting financials again
Thanks Goodman. I've been thinking of using IG Markets for a while now, but you don't recieve any interest on your funds if you are not using them. I'm currently with MQ Prime, and they pulled the pin on one of my favourite short selections just before i joined. Was not happy.
The announcement on the 12th was for MCQ - Macquarie Capital Alliance Group. I'm guessing he still has MQG shares.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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MQG chart
Nice down trend
Looks like a steady sell off by the funds since mid 2007
Go smashed recently by the risk adverse, ops sorry nasty short sellers
BTW I tried to get set short at 39.83 couldn't source the stock......missed the trade seems everyone else was already set......but how could that be?
.
Nice down trend
Looks like a steady sell off by the funds since mid 2007
Go smashed recently by the risk adverse, ops sorry nasty short sellers
BTW I tried to get set short at 39.83 couldn't source the stock......missed the trade seems everyone else was already set......but how could that be?
.
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Thanks mate, not bad for my first real trade I recon.... however I still hold the parcel that I have always had.... happy to collect divys on that lot for now.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it go through $40 on Monday, after all, all the good news is to do with the financial crisis ATM.... if that makes sense
How long the good run can last is anyones guess.
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Wouldnt touch these guys until I could get comfortable about their forecasts ... cant see any new business for them any time soon and expect them to trend flatish or down.
I dont like their model of business that why I dont buy them in the first place.
I just advice people to be caution because of their model.
It sound simple enough in what they do but it far more complicated on paper.
debt are all over the place, most of their fund revalue every year and how they count profit and lost I just have no idea.
It just too complicated... My knowledge is just as limited as some of the people here and I don't pretend I know it all
so because I cant understand it I usually don't touch it... it easy suck into the market exuberant when the raging bull keep charging...
I prefer simpler business like selling pizza, coke, hiring pallets like BXB
where I know the cost is $1 and they sell for $1.20 they make a profit of 20 cents. Also Stocks that strongly charge up doesn't attract my attention
but stock that fall out of fashion and brokers all but dis-own it usually got mine.
I dont think MQG going to get back to $80 any time soon it be hovering around this price until people are comfortable with what they do and they prove to the market they can survive a credit crunch and still profitable.
I think you have to learn to be an independent thinker and don't get suck into the market exuberant.
I also applied a bit of probability to my stock purchase once I identify it.
it goes something like this.
say when BHP was around $40, it look good and it look solid with everyone reckon the china is stronger for longer and they keep making money for years to come.
I have no doubt BHP will make money but I take on a different logic and probability count.
BHP is around 150Billion company for me to double my money at $40 to $80
BHP has to grown to 300 Billion dollar company sometimes in the future
would it be possible and how long?
I dont think it grow to a $300 Billion dollars company in my life time
so my take is no better not buy at $40 bucks
better buy something much smaller and has much better prospect of double triple their size in a reasonable time.Next time you buy something like that applied this sort of logic, dont look at a stock price at $40 or $80 look at the whole picture.
if I have $12 Billion dollars can I start up a company and compete with CHEP own by BXB and beat them? the answer is 80% no and 20% yes
so BXB is my guy in CHEP
If I have unlimited funds can I beat Coke for soft drink, answer is probably not and no one has indefinite fund so coke is the man for soft drink
Wrong ... All the money you deposit in the Australian bank are un-secure creditor when they crash you along with everyone else has to line up and collect your credit ..the big guys get it first then its your turn.
why do you think banks pay you 8% on term deposit and government bond offer 4%-6% ? that is because government bonds is as close to risk free as you can get. That extra few percent is for the risk should the bank goes belly up.
There are some noise last year where government will pay you up to $20K for your deposit should the banks goes belly up...so if you got 100K in there and it goes bust and you cant recover the money, the government will pay you 20K and that is it.
People don't spread their deposit into multiple banks and the biggest one for no reason, it offer a little less risk
Garpal Gumnut
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I have managed to clean out my Macquarie CMT Account so really don't give a stuff what happens to MQG. It took 3 working days.
A few days in the garden though helps put things in perspective. Its the law of the jungle. Grubs eating leaves, birds eating grubs, a kookaburra eyeing off a sunbird's nest.
My guess is that MQG is just as vulnerable to further falls despite the lack of short sellers.
Ask yourself who is going to buy them. Not short sellers covering.
Maybe punters with high moral values supporting a worthy institution. I jest.
Perhaps folk wanting to make a profit.
The monthly chart shows MQG to be still in a massive down trend. It broke through support at $40 and this will provide resistance for some time to come. So if you can't make a profit shorting it how can you make a profit buying it when there are no buyers.
gg
A few days in the garden though helps put things in perspective. Its the law of the jungle. Grubs eating leaves, birds eating grubs, a kookaburra eyeing off a sunbird's nest.
My guess is that MQG is just as vulnerable to further falls despite the lack of short sellers.
Ask yourself who is going to buy them. Not short sellers covering.
Maybe punters with high moral values supporting a worthy institution. I jest.
Perhaps folk wanting to make a profit.
The monthly chart shows MQG to be still in a massive down trend. It broke through support at $40 and this will provide resistance for some time to come. So if you can't make a profit shorting it how can you make a profit buying it when there are no buyers.
gg
