MQG - Macquarie Group

[austini]

Hi gang,

I occasionally pop in here for a look but this is my first post.

It's amazing how much of an impact a single broker can have on a stock. At least that is all I hope it is. Anyhow the company is run by great people and I certainly don't think you could possibly put it in the same category as BNB. So as a long term income investor, for better or worse, I just keep nibbling away at MQG as it falls. Even if they substantially cut the divididend hopefully it is will still be reasonable.

Cheers - gordon

 

[Aussiest]

Sorry, i did edit my post after you had posted.

I'm not sure either, but it does say something about the UBS on the Commsec website. It annoys me that an international bank is allowed to influence our markets so much. It makes me think somebody is short selling (i'm sure a lot of people are short selling right now), because there was massive and aggressive selling on Monday and yesterday, and that was before the UBS 'news' today. It wreaks of inside information if you ask me.

 

[Aussiest]

Hi gang,

I occasionally pop in here for a look but this is my first post.

It's amazing how much of an impact a single broker can have on a stock. At least that is all I hope it is. Anyhow the company is run by great people and I certainly don't think you could possibly put it in the same category as BNB. So as a long term income investor, for better or worse, I just keep nibbling away at MQG as it falls. Even if they substantially cut the divididend hopefully it is will still be reasonable.

Cheers - gordon

Yeah, i was gonna keep it too, but after the BNB debarcle, i freaked out... Don't wanna risk my capital. We'll see how it goes over the next week or so.

I have my suspicions about the future price action, but i am not going to post it till after it happens . Wouldn't want to be influencing anyone would i?!

Oh yeah, the 'broker influence' thing sucks. That's what i mean... what is stopping them from telling their friends in Australia that they are about to announce a downgrade? Quick Fred, sell up big (short sell), and i'll announce on Tuesday night.

 

[Pager]

Well i got out of Macquarie today, having learnt a lesson with AFG and holding a falling stock only to be smashed even harder, so i cut this one loose

Not saying its going to become a basket case like AFG, or get hit like BNB but you just have to look at all the stocks around it in the same or similar business which have been smashed and it although down is still holding up.

Its business is heavily linked to debt markets that have been absolutely slaughtered and IMO any bad news from this stock and its going to be back below $30 in a flash.

You gotta also wonder how all its satellite funds are doing ?, for which MQG earns fees ????.

 

[Family_Guy]

I noticed some pretty big buy orders in the last 15 minutes. quite a few 5000, lots of 1 and 2k's and even a couple of 10k's......also a big one of maybe 15k as it broke $42 at the end of the day. So obviously someone thinks it's a good buy.....i thought it was a good buy, i hope it was at least.

 

[nomore4s]

The thing that worries me with MQG is the fact they haven't run into any problems yet, but companies with similar business models the world over have been hit extremely hard. I find it hard to believe that MQG will escape as unscathed as they have so far.

You only have to look at BNB & AFG for Aussie stocks that had supposedly strong businesses and would ride this storm out but.............

I just hope the management aren't playing funny buggers and hiding things - fear & greed do strange things.

I think it's only a matter of time before we start to see some big write offs for MQG.

 

[austini]

In my case I only started buying MQG a couple of weeks ago and have subsequently nibbled at it when it falls heavily. So essentially MacBank was over 40% down from its yearly high when I started buying. However I don't think I would be feeling too excited if I had purchased the stock in the high nineties last year. Hopefully the company continues to remain fundamentally sound and I don't find myself averaging down to zero I only risk catching the falling knife on stocks I consider likely to survive so hopefully I don't get cut to pieces The critical thing for me is that it continues to keep paying an accepable dividend. It that looks under threat for an extended period then I'm out.

Cheers

 

[Aussiest]

I noticed some pretty big buy orders in the last 15 minutes. quite a few 5000, lots of 1 and 2k's and even a couple of 10k's......also a big one of maybe 15k as it broke $42 at the end of the day. So obviously someone thinks it's a good buy.....i thought it was a good buy, i hope it was at least.

Yes, but they could have been short sellers buying back in. Just my opinion. Or, it may have hit a bottom.... who knows?! I think i'll remain skeptical until an announcement is made.

 

[Aussiest]

In my case I only started buying MQG a couple of weeks ago and have been subsequently nibbling away at it when it falls heavily. So essentially MacBank was over 40% down from its yearly high when I started buying. However I don't think I would be feeling too excited if I had purchased the stock in the high nineties last year. Hopefully the company continues to remain fundamentally sound and I don't find myself averaging down to zero I only risk catching the falling knife on stocks I consider likely to survive so hopefully I don't get cut to pieces The critical thing for me is that it continues to keep paying an accepable dividend. It that looks under threat for an extended period then I'm out.

Cheers

Yes, and if it has these writedowns, then the dividend may well be cut. I don't know though, so don't take my word on it.

I just wish the likes of UBS would keep their mouths shut until they had substantiated proof.

MQG had better hurry up and make an announcement.

 

[Aussiest]

Oh yeah, i got out of MQG and bought some BNB. Joke :

 

[golfmos123]

Yes, an interesting day today. One little report and a stock goes to pot.

I see an opportunity here with such a dramatic fall - either it falls further or it bounces back somewhat. I've jumped in late today looking for just a 1-2 day hold and an upwards bounce. Countered with a very tight stop so that I don't suffer badly if it is going to keep going south like AFG and BNB.

Can't help but think today was a massive overreaction.

I guess I'll be judged in a couple of days time......

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

MQG is in a down trend with lowers lows and lower highs since the lows of August last year.

It may appear cheap now, but if it goes below $60 on higher volume there is nothing on the charts to give it support until $50.

It has also broken below the 30 week moving average and "loseable money" would be required to buy in , until it has trended sideways in a range for a few months. This may occur over the next few months, it may continue downwards.

It may even go below $50. After that $30 is the next support. Have a look at the enclosed chart.

"Brave" would be an accurate description for a buyer of MQG in this market.

gg

I have been concerned for many years about MQG's ability to fund their loans in a downturn.

They appear now to be the sick man of the asx.

The latest chart shows a continuation of the downtrend with the risk that hedge funds will now commene aggressive shorting of the stock.

At these low prices few bigger players will be inclined to support MQG and go long'

A chart shows the inexorable fall of mqg to a projected $30 on e/w principles.


gg

 

[Aussiest]

The latest chart shows a continuation of the downtrend with the risk that hedge funds will now commene aggressive shorting of the stock.
gg

I think you could be right. I was looking at the market depth in real time, as it happened, yesterday and on Monday and you should have seen the sell orders coming in relentlessly and on quite large volume at times. Just when i thought it was all over, there more more massive sell orders at previous support levels such as $45 and $46. At one stage today, there were only about 76 buyers for 120,000 units, compared with around 700 sellers for 100s of thousands of units.

Please do not quote me on the above mentioned information, i did not take a screen print. The point i am trying to make is that at one stage, the sellers heavily outweighed the buyers.

I decided not to buy in as i didn't want to be short sellers' fodder.

(please note, i did make a loss on this stock, so i am not trying to move the price either way).

 

[Family_Guy]

At one stage today, there were only about 76 buyers for 120,000 units, compared with around 700 sellers for 100s of thousands of units.

Yep, i saw that. I truly hope it was an overreaction. I didnt buy much just in case, its just with no announcements i could find at the time and some spare dollars, i thought why not have a go. Looking at that chart from GG, there seems to be $20 rebounds in the downtrend, so heres hoping.

 

[Aussiest]

Yeah, i'm hoping too Family Guy. Believe me, i do not want to see another BNB situation here...

What does Macquarie Bank primarily do anyway?

This was taken from the Commsec website:

Macquarie Group is Australias leading listed investment bank. It has a diversified international operational base with significant activities in corporate finance, treasury and commodities, equities markets, funds management and property. Base and performance fees from listed specialist funds and unlisted funds including a cash management trust represent an important source of group income.

I wish they'd speak in plain english.

What are 'significant activities'?

Where is the property? And, what type is it?

In which countries, and to what proportion in each, does it operate it's 'international operational base'?

Questions, questions.

 

[nomore4s]

Yep, i saw that. I truly hope it was an overreaction. I didnt buy much just in case, its just with no announcements i could find at the time and some spare dollars, i thought why not have a go. Looking at that chart from GG, there seems to be $20 rebounds in the downtrend, so heres hoping.

With the weak close on massive volume I don't think we'll see any sort of rebound tomorrow.

What we might see tomorrow though is a drive down to say $38-$39 or lower (capitulation) on high volume again but would want to see the close off the lows, otherwise it could get a bit ugly.

This is purely speculation and I have no money on the table with MQG. And a strong night in the US could make all that null & void.

Good luck to holders

 

[deadset]

Just when I thought it couldn't go below $45.

Those US investment banks were advising to get out of commodities (at their bottom) and switch to financials, so what happened, commodities rose 10% since then and financials have gone down 10%. Still, its worth noting that commodities can drop quickly again with USD changes, oil price changes, metal price changes.

Oh well, Fannie and Freddy have held and BNB is holding above $2.50.

These price levels now for MQG would indicate that the market thinks the dividend will drop and it is more exposed than say a CBA.

That chart does look scary right now. I'm going to have to think for awhile before I decide to sell or not.

 

[Aussiest]

Yeah, i'm holding off for a while too, or perhaps for ever.

Funny you should mention that about commodities, and thanks, because i was eyeing WPL today and i thought, "hang on, if oil goes down, there goes WPL". So, i'm holding off there too. And anyway, it only looks as though the price of oil has risen due to percieved supply disruption off the Mexico Gulf, when the cyclone goes through.

What happens when the cyclone's over? Does that mean oil goes down and commodities-related stocks will suffer too?

These are interesting times and i am going to try to be safe :dunno: MQG could be good for a day trade though, depending on future price action.

 

[Julia]

That chart does look scary right now. I'm going to have to think for awhile before I decide to sell or not.

Maybe ask yourself if you looked at this chart now, would you buy MQG?
It has halved in value since October last year.

 

[Aussiest]

Oh well, Fannie and Freddy have held and BNB is holding above $2.50.
(

I don't mean to be alarmist, but BNB did have a few legs down before it reached 2.50. Food for thought..