Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MLX - Metals X Limited

Jump to new
After an ugly few months Metals X appears to have bottomed out at 70c and is rebounding now on good volume after the release of its Quarterly Activities Report on Tuesday. It gapped up today and finished near its high, so the bulls are clearly back in charge.

big.chart.MLX.gif
 
Good morning all
Metal X has surprised the market far and beyond of any one's expectation. With the levelof losses, the price drop however IMO , is so far been very kindly .
Just quitted my holding only on 15th Feb @36 cents and was contemplating to return as a holder but today's report does not give me the warm and comfortable feel now. Its Tin business is doing very well but the copper is the killer. Nifty never made any good money and plant used to have so many problems, any appropriate level due diligence by a maintenance engineer, would have discovered them before Metal X bought it.

upload_2019-2-27_8-10-23.png

upload_2019-2-27_8-11-27.png
 
Good morning MLX enthusiasts
MLX has resolved the power crisis and hopefully, the market will receive the good news of plant start and bad news of the 'disappointing quarter performance; published today.
Nifty mines traditionally have very poor maintenance regime, an unacceptable condition of equipment and questionable maintenance strategies as I learnt from many sources since Birla Nifty era.
To turnaround that condition by new management requires a good amount of capital investment and ironically shutdown as well. Watch MLX .
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190312/pdf/443d6v1xncggsk.pdf
 
Miner, this one may have a bit of a battle on its hands. Looking at the six months daily chart I can see the Twiggs Money Flow Indicator is in very negative territory, it has a falling overhead resistance line, it is under the 21dsma as well as the 200dsma.

mlx 12.3.2019.png


Then when I look at the EqiVolume chart I can see a huge amount of selling pressure and a gap it needs to rise above. There are large blocks of selling pressure pretty much all the way up to 50c
Sorry I can't see anything more positive but just calling the charts as I see them.

mlx EV 12.3.2019.png
 
Ann said:
Miner, this one may have a bit of a battle on its hands. Looking at the six months daily chart I can see the Twiggs Money Flow Indicator is in very negative territory, it has a falling overhead resistance line, it is under the 21dsma as well as the 200dsma.

View attachment 92832

Then when I look at the EqiVolume chart I can see a huge amount of selling pressure and a gap it needs to rise above. There are large blocks of selling pressure pretty much all the way up to 50c
Sorry I can't see anything more positive but just calling the charts as I see them.

View attachment 92834
Click to expand...
Thanks Ann for undertaking the analysis on MLX. So in this instance chart and technical are basically saying the same thing - MLX is having far more worry. It is only 11 AM in Sydney and MLX transaction volume has surpassed yesterday's full transaction volume.
One thing however on your comment - selling pressure all the way upto 50 cents considering today's price is only 28.5 cents.
 
Miner said:
One thing however on your comment - selling pressure all the way upto 50 cents considering today's price is only 28.5 cents.
Click to expand...

Yes, if it begins to rise in price, it has a gap to fill and all the wide areas are big volumes where people may be selling into a rising price to recoup their original investment. I can see selling pressure from its current level upwards to 50c...potentially. If it continues to fall I can see a double bottom happening at around 18c coming from 2013. Hope that makes sense! :)
 
It could finally be turnaround time for MLX following the release of their Quarterly Activities Report.

$74.3 million cash in the bank, record production of 2,061 tonnes of tin, EBITDA of $12.9 million and net cash flow of $10.1 million (previous quarter $8.1 million and $5.2 million respectively).

The market had taken a fairly dim view of MLX's future prospects over the last 12 months but today's report may have had an impact on sentiment. The coming days and weeks will determine whether Metals X can break its year long downtrend.

MLX up 17.78% to 26.5c so far today.

big.chart-MLX.gif
 
greggles said:
It could finally be turnaround time for MLX following the release of their Quarterly Activities Report.

$74.3 million cash in the bank, record production of 2,061 tonnes of tin, EBITDA of $12.9 million and net cash flow of $10.1 million (previous quarter $8.1 million and $5.2 million respectively).

The market had taken a fairly dim view of MLX's future prospects over the last 12 months but today's report may have had an impact on sentiment. The coming days and weeks will determine whether Metals X can break its year long downtrend.

MLX up 17.78% to 26.5c so far today.

View attachment 93808
Click to expand...
Nifty is the key bottleneck. As cost cutting is under active implementation by 30 June MLX is ready to ripe for a possible take over imo. Copper is hot. Who knows. Speculative thought with an understanding the technical strengths. Disclosure I am a holder so DYOR.
 
greggles said:
After an ugly few months Metals X appears to have bottomed out at 70c and is rebounding now on good volume after the release of its Quarterly Activities Report on Tuesday. It gapped up today and finished near its high, so the bulls are clearly back in charge.

View attachment 87036
Click to expand...
Ironically MLX repeating the story after one year again . Is it a cyclic ?/
 
Miner said:
Nifty mines traditionally have very poor maintenance regime, an unacceptable condition of equipment and questionable maintenance strategies as I learnt from many sources since Birla Nifty era.
To turnaround that condition by new management requires a good amount of capital investment and ironically shutdown as well. Watch MLX
Click to expand...
Thanks for this info Miner, I've been keeping an eye on this stock too, it's been stock I've held in the past and one that I have liked within the plethora of mining stocks.

I guess they must have miscalculated when buying Nifty. But since Tin business is profitable (It's been profitable for decades as I have been following the stock), could they just admit to the mistake and get rid of Nifty by any chance or do they have too much pride to admit ?

If the company just had the profitable Tin business and the 74m cash on hand I'll buy it back straight away given it won't be draining it's cash on Nifty Quarter after Quarter.

Am I simplifying this too much (I like simplicity, I don't like headaches), your thoughts would be appreciated, Miner.
 
aus_trader said:
Thanks for this info Miner, I've been keeping an eye on this stock too, it's been stock I've held in the past and one that I have liked within the plethora of mining stocks.


I guess they must have miscalculated when buying Nifty. But since Tin business is profitable (It's been profitable for decades as I have been following the stock), could they just admit to the mistake and get rid of Nifty by any chance or do they have too much pride to admit ?

If the company just had the profitable Tin business and the 74m cash on hand I'll buy it back straight away given it won't be draining it's cash on Nifty Quarter after Quarter.

Am I simplifying this too much (I like simplicity, I don't like headaches), your thoughts would be appreciated, Miner.
Click to expand...
@aus_trader ! Market will probably adjust yesterday's gain too. Gave good opportunities for traders as well as some hope and relief for long term . holders. However demonstrated sustainability for the copper plant is the key challenge. With plant condition they need massive cash injection on plant replacement. Otherwise do incremental changes, get market excited and with rising copper some one bails them out by buying Nifty. I will watch today and tomorrow.
You were right on apparent cheap buy of Nifty without analyzing the asset conditions. Excellent ore body with poor plant availability does not equate to good return.
I have to dig more now my faith is returning too.
 
Last edited:
Miner said:
@aus_trader ! Market will probably adjust yesterday's gain too. Gave good opportunities for traders as well as some hope and relief for long term . holders. However demonstrated sustainability for the copper plant is the key challenge. With plant condition they need massive cash injection on plant replacement. Otherwise do incremental changes, get market excited and with rising copper some one bails them out by buying Nifty. I will watch today and tomorrow.
You were right on apparent cheap buy of Nifty without analyzing the asset conditions. Excellent ore body with poor plant availability does not equate to good return.
I have to dig more now my faith is returning too.
Click to expand...
Thanks Miner, your hands on mining background is good to have when looking deeper into mining stocks.

I will certainly be watching MLX, as I have been for years. Any concrete evidence of Nifty turnaround would prompt me to get back into the stock. Interesting to note the price is staying strong today after yesterday's spike...
 
I can see a floor for this at .17c it is still traveling under the falling overhead resistance line coming from January 2018. This is a 10 year daily chart...

mlx 24.5.19.png


This is the current price of refined tin shown on a five year daily chart, it appears to be traveling in a sideways price range between $18500/$19,000 and $22,000. The Fibonacci shows it sitting above the 38.2% line. I wouldn't like to call either a rise toward 22 or fall toward 18.5/19, it could go either way in the short term as I see it, but I feel it will honour this range for the foreseeable future.

tin 24.5.19.png
 
The last posting was on this by @Ann on May 27, 2019. So breaking the silence with a posting to support my second choice tip for August :).
First of all disclaimer - still holding and looking for an exit. But every time I think the share price trickles up giving me some hope to get water on Miraj.
Some good update excited the SP today otherwise I could have started a lower price :)
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190731/pdf/447231dskt1yzk.pdf good report for the time being
But this mob just sold out on 29th July- two days before the update posting on ASX - speculatively it could mean the real news is camouflaged with the report or the company who exited is not well trained to sniff market d https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190729/pdf/446yz7hnjwmmyl.pdf
 
I started to watch this a while back when there was a fair bit of director buying but there is no reason to buy yet.
With both tin and copper down heavily I would expect this to make new multi year lows in the coming days.
It almost seems that whatever can go wrong here has gone wrong.
 
brty said:
I started to watch this a while back when there was a fair bit of director buying but there is no reason to buy yet.
With both tin and copper down heavily I would expect this to make new multi year lows in the coming days.
It almost seems that whatever can go wrong here has gone wrong.
Click to expand...
@brty and @greggles
Are you folks or any one's chart / calculation is predicting enough is enough for MLX and the bottom is there ??
I am having a paper loss of 37% so far but don't like the paper loss to become after selling out only to find MLX has trended up ☹
 

Similar threads

System
OM1 - Omnia Metals Group
Replies
3
Views
2K
peter2
peter2
System
TMB - Tambourah Metals
Replies
2
Views
2K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
System
ERW - Errawarra Resources
Replies
8
Views
3K
peter2
peter2
Trav.
Cobalt
2
Replies
25
Views
6K
qldfrog
qldfrog
E
Lithium Miners
2
Replies
21
Views
8K
Dona Ferentes
Dona Ferentes
Top