MLX - Metals X Limited

[brty]

I have sold at the absolute bottom on quite a few occasions, only to see the stock turn around and go higher.
However on many more occasions I have watched the price go much lower.
I always have an 'uncle' point on my stocks when I enter.

A couple of years ago I sold the exact bottom of the same stock on 3 separate occasions, all within a 6 month period!!!

If something is making multi year lows, that by itself tells you a lot. Management have obviously got things wrong!! Now whether that was buying the nifty mine in the first place or something else, it really doesn't matter.

We could be near the bottom here, or it could go all the way to zero, none of us know, but for my money I would not be long on this yet. Like I said earlier, I've been watching this one for a long signal and it just has not given one. I'd want to see a new swing high before looking for a buy signal, or a short term capitulative bottom for a short term trade.

 

[Miner]

I have sold at the absolute bottom on quite a few occasions, only to see the stock turn around and go higher.
However on many more occasions I have watched the price go much lower.
I always have an 'uncle' point on my stocks when I enter.

A couple of years ago I sold the exact bottom of the same stock on 3 separate occasions, all within a 6 month period!!!

If something is making multi year lows, that by itself tells you a lot. Management have obviously got things wrong!! Now whether that was buying the nifty mine in the first place or something else, it really doesn't matter.

We could be near the bottom here, or it could go all the way to zero, none of us know, but for my money I would not be long on this yet. Like I said earlier, I've been watching this one for a long signal and it just has not given one. I'd want to see a new swing high before looking for a buy signal, or a short term capitulative bottom for a short term trade.

Thanks @brty
Good thoughts and perspective.
Yes I can take the credit to have forcefully sold out at the bottomest level of AGO, BRiERTY, GID HWK. .
So looks like my learning curve is not matching with actions for sure.

 

[brty]

Sometimes nothing will work in your favour on an investment. For example that stock that my stop was hit 3 times on the exact bottom of the move, on another occasion, same stock, I missed the buy by 1 tick. I was the next in the queue when the stock went into a trading halt during the middle of the day. It opened up 50-60% higher on some good news.

The market teaches bad habits that make you break rules if you are not disciplined. The best example being averaging down on something going against you. Most of the time the strategy will work until it doesn't, but by then the investor thinks they are a genius because the strategy worked the previous 10 times they used it, so a person goes in heavily in averaging down on a supposedly 'good' stock. It eventually goes bust and takes the investor out of the game. I've seen this happen too many times.

Back to MLX where it 'looks' like the bottom. Exactly the same thing could have been said when it was at 40c for a while, and 50c for a while and at 70-90c before that.

I'll probably buy in at some point when a trigger is set and be highly bullish on it, until a week later when the price goes against me and I quickly sell.
I get a lot wrong in the market but I'm still here playing and making money because I cut those losses quickly but every now and then get a huge winner that I pony up on. I use TA in an unorthodox manner, in that 99% of TA is bunk, 99% of the time, but I've found some of my own stuff that works a goodly percentage of the time, until circumstances change and it doesn't. (I hope that makes sense)

 

[Miner]

Sometimes nothing will work in your favour on an investment. For example that stock that my stop was hit 3 times on the exact bottom of the move, on another occasion, same stock, I missed the buy by 1 tick. I was the next in the queue when the stock went into a trading halt during the middle of the day. It opened up 50-60% higher on some good news.

The market teaches bad habits that make you break rules if you are not disciplined. The best example being averaging down on something going against you. Most of the time the strategy will work until it doesn't, but by then the investor thinks they are a genius because the strategy worked the previous 10 times they used it, so a person goes in heavily in averaging down on a supposedly 'good' stock. It eventually goes bust and takes the investor out of the game. I've seen this happen too many times.

Back to MLX where it 'looks' like the bottom. Exactly the same thing could have been said when it was at 40c for a while, and 50c for a while and at 70-90c before that.

I'll probably buy in at some point when a trigger is set and be highly bullish on it, until a week later when the price goes against me and I quickly sell.
I get a lot wrong in the market but I'm still here playing and making money because I cut those losses quickly but every now and then get a huge winner that I pony up on. I use TA in an unorthodox manner, in that 99% of TA is bunk, 99% of the time, but I've found some of my own stuff that works a goodly percentage of the time, until circumstances change and it doesn't. (I hope that makes sense)

Preeti well said

 

[aus_trader]

Hi brty, I have read some of your posts on ASF in many threads and from what I can gather, you are an experienced campaigner when it comes to share investing/trading. I have also had an utter frustration with the Gold miners Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) and Silver Lake Resources Limited (SLR). After kicking me out on several attempts they just took off without me. Look at them now ! I am envious, but thank god at least one Gold miner Perseus Mining Limited (PRU) latched on and still holding.

With regards to what you said:

I'd want to see a new swing high before looking for a buy signal, or a short term capitulative bottom for a short term trade.

I understood most of what you said such as waiting for a 'new swing high', but could you go into detail about "short term capitulative bottom for a short term trade" ? What do you look for ?

 

[brty]

Hi brty, I have read some of your posts on ASF in many threads and from what I can gather, you are an experienced campaigner when it comes to share investing/trading. I have also had an utter frustration with the Gold miners Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) and Silver Lake Resources Limited (SLR). After kicking me out on several attempts they just took off without me. Look at them now ! I am envious, but thank god at least one Gold miner Perseus Mining Limited (PRU) latched on and still holding.

With regards to what you said:



I understood most of what you said such as waiting for a 'new swing high', but could you go into detail about "short term capitulative bottom for a short term trade" ? What do you look for ?

Hi Austrader, sorry to take so long to get back to you, it doesn't matter in this case as the price slowly goes down.

A capitulative bottom for me is when there has been massive decline in SP over a relatively short time period, on increasing volume that leads to a gap down (often on bad news the market was expecting), price decrease by another 10% plus, massive volume, but price stops falling and starts to rise. You have to be watching the event when it happens.

Using MLX as a possible candidate, a lot of the bad news has probably been factored in, but more bad news, could see the price plummet by another 30-50% on great volume. This tends to set off a lot of stop losses from traders, which accelerates the down trend. At some point the new buying outweighs the selling and the price starts to rise, often rapidly as selling is exhausted.

Of course it doesn't have to happen this way, (a capitulative bottom), but it might. If the bottom tends to be something different, then so be it, and try to work out what is happening.

There is nothing on the MLX that indicates to me it is time to buy, even though it looked cheap at 40c, 30c and 20c.

 

[aus_trader]

Hi Austrader, sorry to take so long to get back to you, it doesn't matter in this case as the price slowly goes down.

A capitulative bottom for me is when there has been massive decline in SP over a relatively short time period, on increasing volume that leads to a gap down (often on bad news the market was expecting), price decrease by another 10% plus, massive volume, but price stops falling and starts to rise. You have to be watching the event when it happens.

Using MLX as a possible candidate, a lot of the bad news has probably been factored in, but more bad news, could see the price plummet by another 30-50% on great volume. This tends to set off a lot of stop losses from traders, which accelerates the down trend. At some point the new buying outweighs the selling and the price starts to rise, often rapidly as selling is exhausted.

Of course it doesn't have to happen this way, (a capitulative bottom), but it might. If the bottom tends to be something different, then so be it, and try to work out what is happening.

There is nothing on the MLX that indicates to me it is time to buy, even though it looked cheap at 40c, 30c and 20c.

Thanks for explaining what you meant by 'capitulative bottom'. I have seen this type of reversals especially if it is accompanied by a pin bar or long-handle hammer formation as shown in the example below using a different stock. It might not be a complete trend reversal in each situation but there is at least a short term bounce that usually follows.

 

[Miner]

Metal X
Trading halt. A capital raise. Lots of reset plans. Lots of funding requirements. Nifty is a problem child for sure from Birla time.
With hay days for copper and Tin, they relied on Tin and Renison but could not turn around nifty copper.
With desperation of fund one dies need to be an Archimedes to find Eureka after the trading halt is over. Further depressed price. Another take over then ? Who buys a car beyond easy fix?
Thankfully sold out with lesser losses compared to what is today.
Will wait aside to get a relief

 

[Smurf1976]

Up 18.92% today to a close at 22 cents.

An announcement after the close of a change in a major holder, L1 Capital, now holding 15.05% up from 9.93%.

 

[Smurf1976]

From the announcement on 15 November:

Company has made positive progress on each of the Nifty work streams underlying the key lead indicators for the targeted increase in mining production rate to 2 Mtpa. These key lead indicators are: confidence in the resources and reserves, development of mining stocks, progress on ventilation issues and resolution of paste delivery systems.

Work streams?

Key lead indicators?

To me it reads like the sort of thing that comes from a bureaucracy aiming to confuse rather than to inform and I note the approximate 40% drop in the share price over the last 5 days....

 

[Smurf1976]

There is nothing on the MLX that indicates to me it is time to buy, even though it looked cheap at 40c, 30c and 20c.

And now at 12c

Looking at the chart though, that's not far from the low about 10c a decade ago so I'm wondering if it might actually be near a bottom at this point?

Or alternatively, it's pretty much stuffed?

The recent trend can't continue that's for sure, it would soon be at zero if it did.

 

[Miner]

At last after lots of hocus poccus, strategy development etc - MLX called the shot - loss making drain Nifty is closed.
Hopefully market will react positively (guessing) to have a stop loss situation and making money on TIN . DNH
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191126/pdf/44by5bh710058v.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191115/pdf/44blqzdtvp9rwk.pdf
Good luck holders - your good days should return. Problem Child has been quarantined. DNH.
But will look into market reaction shortly

 

[aus_trader]

At last after lots of hocus poccus, strategy development etc - MLX called the shot - loss making drain Nifty is closed.
Hopefully market will react positively (guessing) to have a stop loss situation and making money on TIN . DNH
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191126/pdf/44by5bh710058v.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191115/pdf/44blqzdtvp9rwk.pdf
Good luck holders - your good days should return. Problem Child has been quarantined. DNH.
But will look into market reaction shortly

It's unfortunate for the loss of 290 jobs but I think the Nifty operation was struggling all along and losing money for MLX, even Nifty 'Reset' initiative couldn't turn it around.

 

[Miner]

At last after lots of hocus poccus, strategy development etc - MLX called the shot - loss making drain Nifty is closed.
Hopefully market will react positively (guessing) to have a stop loss situation and making money on TIN . DNH
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191126/pdf/44by5bh710058v.pdf

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191115/pdf/44blqzdtvp9rwk.pdf
Good luck holders - your good days should return. Problem Child has been quarantined. DNH.
But will look into market reaction shortly

Market received the MLX announcement with a big thud contrary to what I expected. I believe the reaction was on a short term outlook.
The loss of jobs is most unfortunate but that was inevitable. Nifty has been operated by previous owner Aditya Birla group very poorly without replacing the aged equipment.
Question would be who would buy the junl copper portfolio?
Let's wait and see.

 

[barney]

. Problem Child has been quarantined.

Given the costs involved to put Nifty into care and maintenance, it must have been losing bucket loads to make that the best option

Up front costs for the first 2 months of shut down $19 million … then $1.4 million per month.

They also have to pay out current creditors but the Final ore shipment looks like covering most of that.

So effectively, to shut this down and "keep an eye" on it for the next 12 months will cost the Company $34 million ….. then $15 million per year after.

Was it losing that much while it was operating? Looks a tough road back at the moment.

 

[Miner]

Given the costs involved to put Nifty into care and maintenance, it must have been losing bucket loads to make that the best option

Up front costs for the first 2 months of shut down $19 million … then $1.4 million per month.

They also have to pay out current creditors but the Final ore shipment looks like covering most of that.

So effectively, to shut this down and "keep an eye" on it for the next 12 months will cost the Company $34 million ….. then $15 million per year after.

Was it losing that much while it was operating? Looks a tough road back at the moment.

Good stats and analysis. Hope the board and the CEO have done their sums on the same line.
Market returned to same level.
From my own experience, Nifty plant unless thoroughly upgraded by some one or acquired by an investor ( paying $2 / hr rate to imported nationals and ignoring our rules and ethics), will be a no win business.

 

[aus_trader]

So effectively, to shut this down and "keep an eye" on it for the next 12 months will cost the Company $34 million ….. then $15 million per year after.

I was also surprised to see the cost of halting this mining operation and ongoing costs. It's as bad as continuing to operate the mine at a loss !

Otherwise the share price would have had a boost today to see MLX finally pulling the plug on Nifty I reckon, even I might have been tempted to have a nibble. But not so sure anymore since it'll be using profits from Tasmanian Tin operations to look after Nifty on care and maintenance. If not enough they may raise capital from shareholders to look after Nifty

 

[debtfree]

I have chosen MLX as my top pick in the Tipping Competition for Full CY 2021, only looked at the charts for my picks.

Last 5 weeks price has had good momentum, much stronger than XAO and with good volume. This has finally moved the Short term MA above the Long term MA, 1st time in nearly 3 years.

Can it get back to towards the $1.00 level by the end of the year? I don't know but if it does it will be a great return and it's heading in the right direction at the moment.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

• Tin metal prices close to breaking through $US30,000 per tonne (A$37,300/tonne) barrier for first time since 2011
• 'Demand for tin has accelerated in recent months' – International Tin Association
• Shipping delays, rains in Indonesia, accelerating demand from chemical and electronics sectors, all drive up tin's price

Australia has only one major tin-producing mine, Renison Bell in Tasmania, and its production goes to export customers as domestic consumption is quite low.

"All of the tin mined there is exported to smelters in Asia; there is no smelting capacity in Australia," said Willoughby. "Domestic demand for tin is relatively small – around 250-350 tonnes per year. If there was a smelter in Australia, mining at Renison would be more than adequate for Australian demand," he said.

Renison Bell's operator and 50 per cent owner Metals X (ASX:MLX) said the mine produced 2,000 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate in the December-ended quarter, down 14 per cent on the September-ended quarter. All in sustaining cash costs for the Renison mine were $US20,978 per tonne in the December quarter, and the mine has a production target of 8,200 to 8,500 tonnes for the 2021FY.

 

[Sean K]

• Tin metal prices close to breaking through $US30,000 per tonne (A$37,300/tonne) barrier for first time since 2011
• 'Demand for tin has accelerated in recent months' – International Tin Association
• Shipping delays, rains in Indonesia, accelerating demand from chemical and electronics sectors, all drive up tin's price

Is this all about tin? Part of the EV/RE fad? Tin looks to have come off quite a bit, is there anymore upside or has it run its course?