Fortis Report from Basemetals.com
News
• May 8th: Indonesia’s refined tin exports bounced back in the first four months of 2008 to more than 33,800t, against more than 16,500t in the same period of 2007, according to the country’s trade ministry.
• Apr 24th: Russia’s ministry of economic development and trade is considering removing a 5% import tariff on tin to facilitate greater production of tinplate.
• Apr 14th: Miners at Bolivia’s Huanuni tin mine returned to work after a 12
day strike over pay.
Analysis
• Fresh record price, more to come
With tin stocks on the LME again very low (now at less than one day’s global consumption at 7,565t by 9th May, against 12,150t at the start of the year), strong Chinese demand and shrinking Chinese exports, political ructions in Bolivia, and a propensity by the Indonesian authorities to confuse the market with regard to their precise intentions for its tin industry, it is little wonder that tin prices are at record levels and are more than 45% up since the beginning of 2008. Chinese demand is certainly growing strongly. Antaike, China’s leading non-ferrous metals research organisation, estimated in April that the country’s refined tin usage would rise by 10.4% year-on-year to 146,000t in 2008 and continue at a similar pace for a few more years to come, driven by two sectors, electronics and tinplating. Antaike also expects that a lack of major new mining projects and increased competition for scrap will mean a tigher supply-demand future. It forecasts a fall in China’s net refined tin exports to 6,000t in 2008, from 10,588t in 2007. In Indonesia the central government plans to issue new regulations for mining by July this year, and early reports suggest that they will place a ceiling on the country’s tin production at 100,000t/year, which would be slightly less than a third of global output. Indonesia’s tin production – which in the past has been dominated by a handful of large, regulated companies, with a rash of smaller unlicensed smelters – could fall well below that figure this year, while its exports, which were almost 119,000t in 2006 (the last year before the state authorities started clamping down on smaller unlicenced smelters), may struggle to get to 100,000t. From July, Indonesian exports of all minerals – not just tin – will have to be verified by government auditors before being loaded onto ships leaving the country.
Outlook
The Antaike forecast for China’s tin exports in 2008 looks rather generous, given that domestic demand is running very strongly and customs data published in April showed China was a net importer of more than 3,600t of refined tin in Q1 2008, with more than a third of that coming from Indonesia. The country’s tin producers have faced a 10% export tax on refined tin since the start of this year and with high domestic prices have little incentive to export. Moreover, China’s tin production in Q1 2008 was 13% lower when compared with Q1 2007, at 31,300t. This is a recipe not just for much higher prices, but for prices to remain high for some time to come. LME 3-month short-term: $22,000/t-$25,000/t.