MHL - Monitor Energy

[AussiePaul72]

Re: MHL - Missunderstood

I've been sitting back observing the posts now and must say the following,

When I tried to bring this stock to everyones attention it was around the 3c level, which after a brief rally to 4c it spent plenty of time trading in ie 3c-3.5c

So people had plenty of time to buy, for whatever reason it seems a few waited and jumped in once it broke out and was at the 5c level

I have always seen significant upside in MHL as its oil and gas projects ar ein serious elephant grount frontier country, A discovery of even 100Mbls of oil would still be worth 50c to MHL

Calcs 100Mbls @ $20 bl EV (Mkt Avg used) = $2Billion, 15% (MHL's Interest) = $300m
And thats just for 100Mbls, we could be talking 1Billion Barrel + Elephant targets which would be worth $5 to MHL


So the point is MHL offers huge upside, but it will take time

They have already completed the surveys and have now done what I believe to be the smarth thing, which is bring in a DEEP POCKETED Partner,

For me its a no brainer bottom draw to see what happens

The interpretation of the surveys will provide targets which the company can then announce to the market,

Just think what a 1Billion Barrel Oil target would do to the SP,


So bottom line, patience is a virtue and the patient will be IMO rewarded

I have been watching MHL since it was around the 3c mark, however, due to lack of funds i didn't get on board until 5.2c unfortunately.
However, I agree with YT here ..... the potential of MHL hasn't changed and considering the areas they (being their JV partners) are drilling there is potentially a lot of upside for both oil & gas and also uranium. I'm disappointed at present but still think there is a lot of potential and i'm in for the med-long term at least!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Re: MHL - Missunderstood

Exactly guys,

Lots of potential upside, oilers usually run up on big wells being drilled, ie EGO- Valentine, EXR-UK Wells, DLS-Bonaparte and so on

As I have shown, a discovery of even 100Mbls of oil would still be worth 50c to MHL

Calcs 100Mbls @ $20 bl EV (Mkt Avg used) = $2Billion, 15% (MHL's Interest) = $300m, 600m shares = 50c


Also I think the deal struck was very very good as it free carries MHL while maintaining exposure to a huge Elephant Oil project

This is great info - MD letter copied from another forum in response to a shareholder's email -

Seems there is a lack of understanding in the market about the value of the deal on the remote Kyrgyzstan acreage. Please read the attached explanatory note which will clear up these issues. A run today was preceded by an unsubstantiated rise during the last tow weeks on NO news - I guess there is some larger investor that wanted to see the rise (to 6 cents) only to take it down.
We still have the assets, the announcement has been endorsed by many oil & gas experienced brokers....

Dear Shareholder
Thank you for your email.
While the company is concerned with the market reaction to the
announcement, the facts appear to be misunderstood.
Given the fact that the projects in the Kyrgyz Republic are frontier in nature,
exploration and possible development is high risk and also carry potentially
high development costs. While the company is enthusiastic about the potential
for the acreage, there remains a high risk profile. By bringing in funding, it
allows the company to continue to aggressively explore the projects without the
impediment of limited capital.
What the HoA means is that the projects will be explored aggressively without contribution of funding by the company. This is carried through to production of oil.

You will note that the HoA isolates the on ground component of exploration. This means that there is a minimum commitment to exploration via seismic and drilling, without being diluted by other costs, some of which can be extremely high. Given the fact that there is unprecedented demand for seismic survey teams and drill rigs globally, there may be a need to mobilize this equipment from countries remote to the Kyrgyz Republic. If this is the case, it could potentially cost millions of dollars, dramatically reducing the amount of work in the field, which is the whole point of exploration

By cocooning the on ground component and with the JV partner responsible for costs associated with mobilization, demobilization, as well as operating and administration costs (plus a sliding operator抯 fee), maximum benefit is delivered to the projects themselves, not eroded in incidental costs.

While some investors feel that 15% free carried interest in the projects is not significant, may I give you a couple of examples.
If there is a significant oil discovery made, development costs could be extreme, with construction of pipelines, possibly as far away as China, adding massive capital costs. MHL is protected from these costs via its free carry.

An example of a 85/15 regime is he oil and gas industry in Indonesia which is amongst the largest in South East Asia. Under government regulations, foreign companies are only entitled to own 15% of oil production, with the remainder owned by the Indonesian government. Costs and taxes are in the 15%. Despite this, many of the largest oil companies in the world successfully and very profitably produce oil in Indonesia, despite having to carry all exploration and development costs through to production.

Monitor Energy Ltd, has a very experienced technical and management team
that is focussed on doing smart business, not business as usual and as such will conserve its capital for new projects, in line with our capabilities and capacity, with near(er) term production, some of which are under review at present.Sincerely yours,
Jon W Roestenburg B.Sc., GBQ, MLM

 

[billgeld]

hey young

is there a time frame for when the they start drilling to look for oil?

and all other drilling in general.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

hey young

is there a time frame for when the they start drilling to look for oil?

and all other drilling in general.

Hey mate, 6-12months I'd say,

But it should only take a few weeks to get drill targets via seismic interpretation,

Now this is the important part as once targets are defined, speculative valuations can be given by brokerage firms for drill success, as I have shown a 100M bl discovery = 50c value to MHL's 15% interest, at a 10% EV = 5c which is still well above current prices,


$18m mkt cap
Great management, ex HDR, DYL and so on
Great Elephant sized targets with funded/carried interest
Prospective Uranium projects
Looking for new projects


Ticks the boxes for a great 10 bagger spec for me

 

[prawn_86]

Would the winter over there at the moment put a delay on things such as GPR and drilling?

Could take a bit longer if so

 

[adobee]

Will be interesting to see what happens with MHL. ..
I have had two mates who are brokers call me and say they think MHL is good to get on now.. In response I have said 'what the f*"k?' I was on this a month ago and it has gone to six and back down and now I am thinking about selling out cause not much will be happening, at least for a while yet .. Word is that alot of people are very happy with the latest announcement and are expecting further big things short term ..

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Would the winter over there at the moment put a delay on things such as GPR and drilling?

Could take a bit longer if so

Yeah definately, Not too sure about the whether the weather ( : ) will delay and when its winter etc

But as I said, I'm waiting for seismic interpretation to give target sizes, or target wells with estimate oil in place, reservoirs etc etc

This will really get MHL going I reckon, but we'll see

 

[gordon2007]

I guess based on this example it's fair to say that there was not a sheep mentality. If anything, there is a lack of volume on AAR. Of which, I like to think is a good thing. It's good because that means that people on here are doing research first and not just buying blindly because someone with a proven record brings something to attention.

I think watching AAR will give you good feedback on this thought.. having had two of the highly regarded posters on this site hitting up alot of infomation and potential targets over the weekend.. AAR has hung round 9c for a while.. If all of a sudden there is frenzied buying and it goes back up to 10c no annoucement I would consider the forums to be a large factor in the new interest... Well we will wait and see..

 

[KevyK]

Will be interesting to see what happens with MHL. ..
I have had two mates who are brokers call me and say they think MHL is good to get on now..

Ive heard similar. Personally, Id like to see it consolidate around the 30 mark for a week or so before jumping on. It may pull back to around the 25-26 mark, but if it doesnt in the short term, Im on! IMO its going to be a long term play anyway, so getting on where it is now isnt such a bad thing.

 

[Sean K]

Will be interesting to see what happens with MHL. ..
I have had two mates who are brokers call me and say they think MHL is good to get on now..

adobee, and Kevy, this could be just a ramp. If you want this information to be taken seriously then please provide the brokers name and/or the justification for the advice. Otherwise, you could just be making this stuff up. I've no doubt your brokers could be telling you this, but please understand how this looks to the average punter. Cheers, kennas.

 

[adobee]

adobee, and Kevy, this could be just a ramp. If you want this information to be taken seriously then please provide the brokers name and/or the justification for the advice. Otherwise, you could just be making this stuff up. I've no doubt your brokers could be telling you this, but please understand how this looks to the average punter. Cheers, kennas.

Hi Kennas .. can you remove the post? I dont want to be seen ramping however I am not at liberty to post the names and companies of a few friends.. (I cant work out how to withdraw it?)

 

[adobee]

Not a bad day so far for MHL .. starting to recover and get interest.. the buyers seem to be starting to stack up as well.. Would be great if it can close at 3.4 or above (as I paid 3.3) it would make my weekend ..

 

[rapture2002ca]

So far so good for MHL, I'm a bit wary though as it might be a gee-up and then it get's dumped on Monday. I hope it holds.

 

[Doris]

So far so good for MHL, I'm a bit wary though as it might be a gee-up and then it get's dumped on Monday. I hope it holds.

I'd love to hear opinions of charting experts on the past six weeks' sessions!

My hand made chart says a double bottom has formed today from the past 2 weeks, heralding a rise Monday!

Two weeks ago there was a double top and it fell from .051/.052 level to .028.

Two weeks before that a (trying hard) double bottom saw it rise from .040 to .058.

I am excited!

 

[AussiePaul72]

I'd love to hear opinions of charting experts on the past six weeks' sessions!

My hand made chart says a double bottom has formed today from the past 2 weeks, heralding a rise Monday!

Two weeks ago there was a double top and it fell from .051/.052 level to .028.

Two weeks before that a (trying hard) double bottom saw it rise from .040 to .058.

I am excited!

Hi Doris & MHL investors, traders and watchers!
I was very intrigued by what happened on Friday with MHL and have been pondering about it all weekend and haven't really come up with any definitive answer. Using stocknessmonster i viewed the course of trades for the day:
* There was very little activity in the first few hours of trading with <2M traded and in the 2.9-3.1c range
* Then in the afternoon session, all of a sudden a flurry of activity with approx 29M traded in the 3.1-3.4c range
* Then if we focus in on the last 30 min of trading, almost 8M traded at 3.3c up to close of trade
* Share price increased by 13.8% for the day
* In total, over 17.7M trades (or almost 57%) of the 31.2M traded on Friday (highest volume day of the week) was at 3.3c or above
* I just had a look at the market depth as it stands now and buyers seem to be lining up and outnumbering sellers by quite a margin (please tell me how others read this market depth?). There is 5M queued up in the 3.2-3.3 range already.

So the questions that i have floating around in my mind are:
1) Why the sudden flurry of activity on Friday afternoon and continued high interest even as the SP went up?
2) Was there a leak to the market of some upcoming news? and what might this relate to?
3) or are the day traders starting to wind up MHL again in a big way?
3) Or has the market just realised that there was an over-correction of MHL relating to last news?

I'd be interested to hear any comments from MHL-ers out there! Anyway, whatever the reason, i'm pleased that there seems to be some confidence coming back to MHL now that things have settled and people have digested the last news (which really wasn't bad news at all in my opinion for the very reasons people have stated above). DYOR and good luck to all

 

[Risky Trader]

2) Was there a leak to the market of some upcoming news? and what might this relate to?
3) or are the day traders starting to wind up MHL again in a big way?
3) Or has the market just realised that there was an over-correction of MHL relating to last news?

Hi AussiePaul... I also notice the same trend there...and the very same questions also circle in my mind..

Whatever it's I don't think it's related to the last news.. Simply because if it's taking people that long to get over it then it's truely not important anymore.

However I have a feeling something has been leak OR All those keen investors that have been watching this stock from the sideline and just waiting for someone to make the 1st move. More of a case of "I will jump if you jump 1st"

......

 

[eMark]

Well today (10th) peaked at 0.036 today. I got in for the first time at 0.035, an average entry point at best. The stock closing unchanged at 0.033. It seemed to be in reverse to Fridays action with all the action at the beginning of the day, and not a lot there after. I assume you have been watching today (10th). Any further theories?

Hi Doris & MHL investors, traders and watchers!
I was very intrigued by what happened on Friday with MHL and have been pondering about it all weekend and haven't really come up with any definitive answer. Using stocknessmonster i viewed the course of trades for the day:
* There was very little activity in the first few hours of trading with <2M traded and in the 2.9-3.1c range
* Then in the afternoon session, all of a sudden a flurry of activity with approx 29M traded in the 3.1-3.4c range
* Then if we focus in on the last 30 min of trading, almost 8M traded at 3.3c up to close of trade
* Share price increased by 13.8% for the day
* In total, over 17.7M trades (or almost 57%) of the 31.2M traded on Friday (highest volume day of the week) was at 3.3c or above
* I just had a look at the market depth as it stands now and buyers seem to be lining up and outnumbering sellers by quite a margin (please tell me how others read this market depth?). There is 5M queued up in the 3.2-3.3 range already.

So the questions that i have floating around in my mind are:
1) Why the sudden flurry of activity on Friday afternoon and continued high interest even as the SP went up?
2) Was there a leak to the market of some upcoming news? and what might this relate to?
3) or are the day traders starting to wind up MHL again in a big way?
3) Or has the market just realised that there was an over-correction of MHL relating to last news?

I'd be interested to hear any comments from MHL-ers out there! Anyway, whatever the reason, i'm pleased that there seems to be some confidence coming back to MHL now that things have settled and people have digested the last news (which really wasn't bad news at all in my opinion for the very reasons people have stated above). DYOR and good luck to all

 

[AussiePaul72]

Well today (10th) peaked at 0.036 today. I got in for the first time at 0.035, an average entry point at best. The stock closing unchanged at 0.033. It seemed to be in reverse to Fridays action with all the action at the beginning of the day, and not a lot there after. I assume you have been watching today (10th). Any further theories?

Hi Emark ..... yes all the activity was at the beginning of the day yesterday. This coincided with the SP moving up to hit its peak of the day at 0.036. Once the volume of trading dropped off it settled back. Volume seems to be the key to moving the SP north at present. However, i was encouraged that by close of day the SP remained unchanged at 0.033. Will be interesting to see what happens today after a positive night in the US.

 

[nioka]

The explaination on the 15% retained equity is probably a good one. However the explaination of the Directors reason for selling is not and still needs further investigation. I have submitted a complaint to the ASX and will wait for their reply. I will not hold my breath while waiting.

The ASX do take complaints seriously. They have written to me and phoned me about MHL. I explained my complaint re the director selling prior to the announcement and prior to the fall in the SP. They assure me it will be investigated and said that my complaint was not the only one they have had regarding the MHL SP.

 

[happytown]

not really up on kyrgyz politics like i once was, so will be intrigued to learn of the election outcome

chairman spencer does have 20 years experience in aust foreign service's sevice in the region so would likely be no stranger to the main players

Kyrgyzstan votes in key election

First results are expected on Monday

Voters in Kyrgyzstan are going to the polls to choose new MPs in a general election that could bring to an end two years of political upheaval. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev called the vote after overhauling the constitution and launching his own party, Ak Zhol, which has been widely tipped to win.

...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7145133.stm

cheers