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MHL - Monitor Energy

Well MHL did really well today to close steady... not a mean feat today!
Tomorrow should be interesting!

From Toronto's National Post... out a short time ago:

The tiny ex-Soviet state, home to both U.S. and Russian military bases, has been volatile since Bakiyev came to power in 2005 when a string of violent protests triggered by a disputed election toppled his long-serving predecessor, Askar Akayev.

If confirmed by final results, Bakiyev's Ak Zhol party would dominate the 90-seat chamber in effective one-party rule -- a break from Kyrgyzstan's past as the most liberal state among more authoritarian Central Asian countries.

The election monitoring arm of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which sent more than 250 observers for the election, said the vote represented a "missed opportunity" to show commitment to international standards.

"The December 16 parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan failed to meet a number of OSCE commitments, despite respect for some that underscore existing pluralism," it said in a statement.

"Overall the election represented a missed opportunity and fell short of public expectations for further consolidation of the election process."

Bakiyev has been accused at home of backtracking on his pre-election promises to bring more democracy and stability. He says stronger rule will help rebuild the economy, still in tatters after the Soviet collapse and burdened by huge debt.
Ak Zhol won 48 percent of Sunday's vote, the Central Election Commission said on Monday, citing results after 80 percent had been counted. Final results are due later this week.

"It'll most likely be a one-party system," said Toktogul Kakchekeyev, an independent political analyst.

The opposition Ata Meken party was the only other party to pass the threshold of 5 percent, with 9.3 percent. But it failed to meet a separate requirement of taking 0.5 percent of the vote in each of Kyrgyzstan's 7 regions and two main cities.

RIGGED?

The opposition condemned the election as flawed, saying it had registered cases of forced voting and ballot stuffing.

"We don't accept this election's result," said Kubatbek Baibolov of the Ata Meken party. "The authorities ... are just cynically appointing their own people into parliament. It will lead to trouble. People feel deceived."

The previous parliamentary election in 2005, also disputed by the opposition, sparked violent protests that toppled Akayev and brought Bakiyev to power.

Ak Zhol says it sees Russia -- where President Vladimir Putin's party controls more than two-thirds of seats in parliament -- as a guiding model. Neighboring Kazakhstan also has a one-party parliament.

But, despite accusations of irregularities, many people said they voted for Ak Zhol, seeing it as a guarantor for stability following years of political turbulence and street protests.
 
Doesn't look very good this morning, lots of selling going on.

Although no stocks look good today. Maybe a chance to pick up some bargains.
 
Well now that a pro russian party is in control im a bit more hesitant to jump on board. I like the company but I fear that if they do find something half decent the rug will be pulled from under them and "nationalised" then were left high and dry.
 
Not sure what to make of the political change,

But it didn't seem to bother Macquarie who have taken 5% of CIG at an avg of 12c I think

They must have faith in CIG's prospectivity and potential to do that wouldn't you think?
 
For sure I definitely think they have potential but its like what happened to Shell and others they sign all these agreements only to find them cancelled when they dont suit one party.

I think any company would jump at the opportunity even if there is a chance of it going pearshaped later down the track because if it does go well they get rich.

Risk vs reward :p: the rewards in this case are potentially very large.
 
same reason im holding, on a small loss at the moment like most i imagine, but could well top up with a few more soon if it holds around this level, or goes down towards the 2 cent mark more..., not fussed having a small holding that doesnt move much..., if they strike oil it will go nuts.
 
Hey Kiwik,

In regards to my refernece to Macquarie recently taking 5% of CIG at 12c, I was more refering to the fact that their analysts etc would have been fully aware of the political situation/developments going on, for them to have still gone ahead gives me confidence,

But that aside, it has been absolute caranage over at MHL, where have all these sellers come from?

I'd think they'd have to be done by now and there's plenty of buyers stacking up at 2.2c-2.4c

For sure I definitely think they have potential but its like what happened to Shell and others they sign all these agreements only to find them cancelled when they dont suit one party.
 
At one point i had 15k worth of MHL now its worth less than 7k :*( basically killed all my profits for this year. I sure hope that MHL hit something, anything, a little puddle of oil or gas lol just hit something ! to give some life back to this company.
 
Some U308 would be nice haha

But yeah im like u stinger i was up about 6gs with MHL and thought long term hold and now im down quite abit. ahhh welll just hold em and see what happens
 
Well now that a pro russian party is in control im a bit more hesitant to jump on board. I like the company but I fear that if they do find something half decent the rug will be pulled from under them and "nationalised" then were left high and dry.

Now I'm no expert on international relations but it seems to me that break-away Russian states risked their lives for independence even though their perchant to copy majority-rule by stealth may apply.

Kyrgyzstan's a tiny country that IMO would be anxious for MHL's potential royalties.

Having both US and Russian bases on its soil shows their prudency and need for this economic input.

Gov't advisers have the whole picture and IMO this would include letting the experts get their job done to develop the country's resources.
 
Yeah me either but I dont think its a break away state. Basically from what I understand when the USSR collapsed all these eastern European/central Asian nations were left broke and with no real government in the power vacuum the US stated exerting its influence hence Georgia etc which were member countries of the warsaw pact. The fact that the US and Russia have bases there and its geographical position makes it probably the most defined new age boundary between east and west.

The issues with the recent vote just show that both russia and the US have their proxies in there trying to sway outcomes and put in friendly's and I wouldn't doubt for a second that cia and KGB money is flowing in there. A year ago I wouldn't care but Russia and the US are restarting the cold war and I believe there will be a show down in the future. Hence I don't want to long term invest in a company on the "front line" :p:
 
Yeah me either but I dont think its a break away state.
Hence I don't want to long term invest in a company on the "front line" :p:


"Current concerns" do not herald potential 'nationalisation'. But who knows...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstan


In October 1991, Akayev ran unopposed and was elected president of the new independent Republic by direct ballot, receiving 95% of the votes cast. Together with the representatives of seven other Republics that same month, he signed the Treaty of the New Economic Community. Finally, on December 21, 1991, Kyrgyzstan joined with the other four Central Asian Republics to formally enter the new Commonwealth of Independent States. In 1992, Kyrgyzstan joined the UN and the CSCE.

The "Tulip Revolution," after the parliamentary elections in March 2005, forced President Akayev's resignation on April 4, 2005. Opposition leaders formed a coalition and a new government was formed under President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Prime Minister Feliks Kulov. The nation's capital was also looted during the protests.

Political stability appears to be elusive, however, as various groups and factions allegedly linked to organized crime are jockeying for power. Three of the 75 members of Parliament elected in March 2005 were assassinated, and another member was assassinated on 10 May 2006 shortly after winning his murdered brother's seat in a by-election. All four are reputed to have been directly involved in major illegal business ventures.

Current concerns in Kyrgyzstan include: privatization of state-owned enterprises, expansion of democracy and political freedoms, inter-ethnic relations, and terrorism
 
...

Kyrgyzstan's a tiny country that IMO would be anxious for MHL's potential royalties.

...

tend to agree

not a wealthy country, their potential energy wealth is arguably their one big hope

both cig and mhl have had to import specialised equipment that is simply unavailable in the kyrgyz

unlike cig and sto, mhl has as chairman a previous first secretary at the aust embassy in moscow, who may have a reasonable understanding of the region, its 'operators' and how bidness is done and undone

i would think a more likely short-term driver, over the next few months (and putting to one side for the time being the vagaries of the market) is the acquisition (for j/v purposes) of prospective oil/gas leases in the regions indicated previously in the ann rep

see for eg, from recent ann on 26/11

The Company has a strong focus on acquiring oil and gas projects with near term production potential in fields demonstrating current production. To this end, the Company is currently reviewing opportunities in Central and South East Asia and other geomarkets to fit the company profile.

drilling results are someways off, as to my rather limited knowledge they have not begun drilling the u308 leases yet (although personnel and equipment have been deployed), let alone determined drilling locations for the oil/gas leases

according to an 06/07 pres (albeit almost 6 months old), drilling, mapping and reserves certification work for the u308 leases begins Q1/08, no drilling on the petroleum leases was scheduled up to and including Q3/08

the next ann will likely be notification of the

formal Joint Venture and Joint Venture Operating Agreement, which is anticipated to be completed by late December, 2007

cheers :)
 
Well the share price is taking a bashing.. As I havent sold out the only thing to do at this price is top :)

There was a great documentary on energy & government in Russia and neighbouring countries I think focused on Georgia it was on the abc during the week.. could possible be on there web site too .. Russians were blowing up the small companies gas pipes and making life difficult for them
 
Press from a few hours ago... today 21 Dec our time:


Opposition leaders in Kyrgyzstan call for protests over vote count
By David L. Stern

Thursday, December 20, 2007

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan: Leaders of this former Soviet state's main opposition party, Ata Meken, vowed nationwide protests Thursday after government officials announced final election results that barred the party from Parliament.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev called the parliamentary vote three years ahead of schedule in order to break a political stalemate with the previous Parliament, which was dominated by the opposition. The deadlock choked economic growth and destabilized this small mountainous nation of five million, which is home to the main U.S. logistical hub for supplying and moving troops into Afghanistan, as well as a smaller Russian air base.
Voting was last Sunday, and the new Parliament convenes Friday. When preliminary results were published Monday, it appeared that Bakiyev's party, Ak Zhol, had won all the seats under the complex election rules, which included requirements that a party win support from 5 percent of the total electorate and cross certain regional thresholds to be eligible for any seats in Parliament.

In response to a lawsuit, the Supreme Court loosened the regional thresholds. Still, the Central Election Commission said Thursday that Ata Meken had failed to cross one of them - requiring it to receive support from at least one-half of 1 percent of the electorate in the city of Osh, or about 600 votes - and was therefore barred from Parliament.

At the same time, the commission announced that the Social Democratic Party and the Communist Party, which are considered sympathetic to the government, had crossed the 5 percent minimum, even though preliminary results Monday, with 95 percent of the vote counted, showed that both had failed to do so.

Thus, according to the Central Election Commission, three parties qualified to enter the new Parliament: Ak Zhol, with 71 seats; the Social Democrats, with 11 seats; and the Communists, with 8 seats.

Bakiyev, who formed Ak Zhol three months ago, said the election was "one of the cleanest in recent times," according to local news agencies.

But Ata Meken leaders, supported by hundreds of local and international election observers, said the vote had been spoiled by widespread, flagrant violations, including ballot stuffing and falsified election protocols.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which fielded 270 observers, called the vote "a missed opportunity."

Kubat Baibolov, an Ata Meken leader, said the party had in fact polled more than enough votes in Osh and would begin a legal case.

"But we don't put any faith in the courts," Baibolov said. "Tomorrow we start a nationwide series of protests."

Baibolov said some Ata Meken candidates had begun a hunger strike and around 20 demonstrators had already been detained in Bishkek.

Whether Ata Meken will be able to mobilize its rank and file remains to be seen. Kyrgyzstan is widely considered to have the most active and fractious political culture in the former Soviet states of Central Asia. At the same time, its population has grown fatigued from the constant political wrangling that has gripped the country since mass protests in 2005 forced the president at the time, Askar Akayev, to flee the country and brought Bakiyev to power.

Copyright © 2007 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com
 
A plethora of positive vibes permeates, postulating potential progress... :)

The president has Iran and Japan signed up for economic cooperation...
The new PM has the role of running the country and a history of energy authority and experience...
The new speaker seems to be a master at propaganda.

The opposition's next (supreme) court challenge would also seem futile with the stranglehold and propaganda. Some talk about 'seeing how they govern in the next few months' but protests are still planned. Will they risk jail or see how Ak Jol fares?

Will Santa increase tourism income? :)



Monday, December 24, 2007
The choice for prime minister was 46-year-old former Minister of Industry, Energy, and Fuel Igor Chudinov. Chudinov… since independence has worked almost exclusively in Kyrgyzstan's energy sector, including work as director general of Kyrgyzgaz, the state company in charge of procuring gas shipments for the country. Chudinov is the fourth prime minister Kyrgyzstan has had this year.

Former State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov was appointed speaker after a vote of 79 to eight (of 90 deputies) in his favor (three votes were declared void).
He said Ak Jol's resounding victory was nothing to be concerned about, saying "Ak Jol Party will be responsible for the activities of the [Kyrgyz] government and the parliament." Madumarov said the nation's people trusted the party and this was evident since "even before today, the people placed these responsibilities on the party by voting for them."

Madumarov used examples from other CIS countries to argue there was no reason to be alarmed that Kyrgyzstan, for the first time in its history as an independent country, has a ruling party. He pointed to neighboring Kazakhstan where "a single party is working there. Did any tragedy happen, or was there any earthquake after that?"

A statement from President Bakiev was read in parliament saying the election of a new parliament should put an end to the problems Kyrgyzstan has experienced since the so-called "Tulip Revolution" of March 2005 that chased long-time President Akaev from power. Bakiev held a session of the government today and said in 2008 the government should focus on "resolving economic questions."

A Bishkek Court late on December 23 rejected a motion from the Ata-Meken Socialist Party to have those elections declared invalid. Ata-Meken placed second in the nationwide vote but due to a rule requiring parties receive at least 0.5 percent of the votes in each of Kyrgyzstan's seven provinces and two largest cities -- Bishkek and Osh -- Ata-Meken was disqualified from getting any seats in the new parliament. Ata-Meken says it did receive the necessary amount of votes in all regions and is vowing to appeal decision to the Supreme Court.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/12/e38a17c8-0d39-4173-9ed4-76105fc87141.html


Kyrgyzstan, which hosts both U.S. and Russian air bases, has been hit with several waves of opposition protests since early 2005. The first wave drove out longtime President Askar Akayev and paved the way for Bakiyev to come to power; subsequent protests have been driven by dissatisfaction over the slow pace of reforms.
Instability could threaten the U.S. base, vital in the allied struggle against insurgents in Afghanistan, along with plans for roads, railroads and pipelines through this corner of energy-rich ex-Soviet Central Asia.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jimfDvzlEjmy9QEUbSxad4IDOJMAD8TNQ9UO0

For photo of PM and Bakiyev: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/24/content_7304442.htm


Mon 24 Dec 2007, 16:42 GMT
BISHKEK (Reuters) - Seeking a novel remedy to revive its rickety economy, the tiny ex-Soviet state of Kyrgyzstan has declared itself the new home of Santa Claus.
Citing Swedish engineering firm that determined the ideal spot for Santa's global toy delivery hub, officials in this predominantly Muslim country have quickly moved to capitalise on the finding.
"Its slogan will be "Kyrgyzstan is the land of Santa Clauses", said Kyrgyz tourism authority spokeswoman Nurkhon Tajibayeva.
In most Western countries Santa Claus, or Father Christmas , is thought to live at the North Pole or in Finland. However, if he were located in Central Asia and started westwards on his traditional Christmas Eve trips, Kyrgyz officials said he would have a more efficient delivery route.
"He can eliminate time-consuming detours and avoid subjecting his reindeer to undue strain," engineering consultants at Stockholm-based Sweco, who used geography and demographics in their research, said in a press release.
http://africa.reuters.com/odd/news/usnL24653458.html


Iran, Kyrgyzstan to boost economic ties
Mon, 24 Dec 2007 12:25:28

The Kyrgyz envoy to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Medetkan Sherimkulov, has called on Iranian companies to make investments in his country.

Iran and Kyrgyzstan have expanded their cooperation in the past three years and currently enjoy good bilateral ties…

… at present more than 170 Iranian and joint companies are engaged in economic projects in Kyrgyzstan and called for the expansion of relations with Iran, particularly with the inauguration of the new Kyrgyz government at beginning of 2008.
"Iran is ready to participate in Kyrgyzstan's infrastructure projects, including construction of power plants and railways,"

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=36174&sectionid=3510213


Kyrgyzstan, Japan sign statement on friendship, partnership, coop (Itar-Tass)
TOKYO, November 14 (Itar-Tass) - Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda signed a joint statement on friendly relations, partnership and cooperation between the two countries in Tokyo on Wednesday.
 
I'm getting mixed vibes from these reports.

Is the change in government going to be a good, bad or indifferent thing for MHL?

IMHO good...
Akayev's government was corrupt. The bloodless coup saw Bakiyev take the reins in 2005. He called this (allegedly yet blatantly corrupt) election 3 years early to be rid of the opposition in parliament. People want the economic situation resolved (the price of bread has doubled in the past year) so, as the opposition's protest on the first sitting of parliament was aborted, as they seek supreme court ruling on the election, there is a distinct possibility IMO that the PM will work to support foreign companies developing oil and uranium resources.

Doris said:
A plethora of positive vibes permeates, postulating potential progress...

The president has Iran and Japan signed up for economic cooperation...
The new PM has the role of running the country and a history of energy authority and experience...
The new speaker seems to be a master at propaganda.

The opposition's next (supreme) court challenge would also seem futile with the stranglehold and propaganda. Some talk about 'seeing how they govern in the next few months' but protests are still planned. Will they risk jail or see how Ak Jol fares?

Will Santa increase tourism income?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrgyzstan

Akayev was corrupt:

In March 2002, in the southern district of Aksy, five people protesting the arbitrary arrest of an opposition politician were shot dead by police, sparking nationwide protests. President Akayev initiated a constitutional reform process which initially included the participation of a broad range of government, civil, and social representatives in an open dialogue, leading to a February 2003 referendum marred by voting irregularities. The amendments to the constitution approved by the referendum resulted in stronger control by the president and weakened the parliament and the Constitutional Court. Parliamentary elections for a new, 75-seat unicameral legislature were held on February 27 and March 13, 2005, but were widely viewed as corrupt. The subsequent protests led to a bloodless coup on March 24, after which Akayev fled the country and was replaced by acting president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Bakiyev is corrupt:

On July 10, 2005, acting president Bakiyev won the presidential election in a landslide, with 88.9% of the vote, and was inaugurated on 14 August. However, initial public support for the new administration substantially declined in subsequent months as a result of its apparent inability to solve the corruption problems that have plagued the country since its independence from the Soviet Union, along with the murders of several members of parliament.
Largescale protests against president Bakiyev took place in Bishkek in April and November of 2006, with opposition leaders accusing the president of failing to live up to his election promises to reform the country's constitution and transfer many of his presidential powers to parliament.



... hence last week's elections.

I'm banking on Chudinov, the new PM, doing his job of running the country's affairs well as he was the energy minister and before that "worked almost exclusively in Kyrgyzstan's energy sector, including work as director general of Kyrgyzgaz, the state company in charge of procuring gas shipments for the country".

So he knows the potential his country has for oil reserves and would want their reliance of 50% import of oil overcome.

"The Kyrgyz Republic is rich in mineral resources but has negligible petroleum and natural gas reserves; it imports petroleum and gas. Among its mineral reserves are substantial deposits of coal, gold, uranium, antimony, and other rare-earth metals. Metallurgy is an important industry, and the government hopes to attract foreign investment in this field. The government has actively encouraged foreign involvement in extracting and processing gold."

The new speaker is a yes-man to Bakiyev and seems a master of propaganda as I said. See my underlined section on him in above post. Corruption is denied as he tells them what he would like them to believe.

President Bakiyev has ultimate power and hence the parliament is a lame duck. Democracy has been denied through the complicated electoral process Bakiyev introduced (and alleged vote tampering) but I feel the opposition will be denied justice in the supreme court challenge.

Despite the much needed fight for justice for recognition of the opposition's electoral voting validity, as all elected MP's seem to be yes-men to Bakiyev, I'm banking on progress in foreign oil company support.
 
Well now that a pro russian party is in control im a bit more hesitant to jump on board. I like the company but I fear that if they do find something half decent the rug will be pulled from under them and "nationalised" then were left high and dry.


Update... released 5 hours ago:

More signs to 'get on board'?
The opposition and pro-Russian (wanting rapprochement or re-establishment of ties with Russia) elderly Kyrgyz lost their Bishkek District Court attempt to oust the US base. I read that 'old' folk were not permitted to nominate for the new gov't elections so this seems another attempt to reduce the pro-Russian influence... silence the old.

It seems to me that this too could be part of the games that they play as the gov't used the protests to get more $$ from the US in rent.
Bakiyev seems pro-US base on moral grounds but of course he needs their $$ both from rent and the spending of 1500 people on the base.

So signs of stability are given out. There are state and private owned/run television stations...


http://enews.ferghana.ru/article.php?id=2300

"The army of opponents also included Kyrgyz Communists and the elderly Kyrgyzes, all of them feeling traditional animosity with regard to the United States and promoting rapprochement with Russia. In 2007, they pooled efforts, formed a movement for withdrawal of the US AF Base, and staged several mass protests both at the base and in front of the US Embassy in Bishkek.

"The Kyrgyz authorities themselves backed the protests covertly and never hesitated to use them as an argument at the bilateral talks with the United States over a higher rent. Put under pressure by its partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2006, Kyrgyzstan advised the Americans to decide exactly when they intended to withdraw the base and upped the annual rent from $2 million to $200 million. As a matter of fact, the Americans only pay Bishkek $45 million a year at best."
[Note... typing errors on figures and context were on the site... Doris]


http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/27/content_7322256.htm

"Kyrgyz President Bakiyev said on Wednesday that the U.S. military base in his country should be kept until the situation in Afghanistan is fully stabilized, according to reports from Bishkek.

"Bakiyev told local television that the situation in Afghanistan has showed remarkable improvement, but it is still possible that the country deteriorates into an international terrorism breeding bed. Therefore, it is necessary that the U.S. military stays to help avert such a scenario and curb surging drug production in the country.

"At the outset of the 2001 Afghanistan war, the United States established an air base in Kyrgyzstan's Manas international airport near capital Bishkek, with some 1,500 U.S. and NATO soldiers deployed there.

"Uzbekistan expelled U.S. troops from an air base in 2005, leaving Manas the only base for U.S. refueling aircraft in Central Asia and a crucial transfer station for U.S. and NATO troops and supplies to Afghanistan from Europe."
 
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