MEL - Metgasco Limited

[YOUNG_TRADER]

YT - I don't think you will see $2/GJ for 2P for these tenements for some time. Remember that the QLD tenements are close to existing pipelines (always consider how you get the gas to mkt) and current spot price for PRODUCERS is around $3/GJ. MEL are a long way off producing and it is unlikely their gas be used for LNG, which is the fundamental reason for QLD takeovers.

However!, if the mkt considers the recent power shortages in NSW and we see someone getting in there and building some gas-fired power stations, we could have a weiner young hot dog and perhaps your $2 call could be right.

In summary, until we some NSW takeovers (other than SGL) it is hard to ascertain a pric. Further to this CSG to domestic gas mkt is proven (sorry but this record is broken).

Keep posting mate. Good input

Yeah I thought that too but SGL did go for $4 of 2P and $3 of 3P

Then late last year/ealry this year MPO sold its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL which was equivalent to $2 2P AND $1 3P

So no I dont think $2 2P is out of the question, in fact I think its the cheapest we can expect

 

[Nero64]

Actually ESG have more cash than that. They've done a capital raising and now have about $70m in the bank I think. Did you happen to read above that MEL have done a rights issue? Another factor to consider will be cash burn. Perhaps ESG needs more cash? Anyway, I'm sure you'll think of another way to make your choice of stock sound better. Good luck.

70M that sounds even better.

Cash = Out perform

No I don't own MEL or ESG. Just own AOE, but I like the CSG sector and think ESG is showing more potential ATM. That doesn't mean I won't buy MEL.

 

[Sean K]

Cash = Out perform

You sound like a very astute and learned fundamental analyst of O&G companies so I will definately be watching your posts closely.

 

[N1Spec]

MEL bounced off the lower trendline predictably today..... will it breakout of the asc triangle finally?? next week we shall know

 

[Mactavish]

oh yeah, got in at 0.465 yesterday, what price do you guys think the share will break out too? target?

 

[Sean K]

oh yeah, got in at 0.465 yesterday, what price do you guys think the share will break out too? target?

From a breakout of a triangle the target is the widest distance of the triangle, which is about 30c upside. That makes 90c. Long way to go before breakout though. It's an ascending triangle (bullish) but it's still long term down trending, so probablilities are lower imo.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm not really fussed with the short term movements of MEL as it is a no brainer CSG takeover play for me, its a matter of when not if

But good to see 50c the new support level is holding

 

[Datsun Disguise]

A strong finish today and moving awfully close to our 60c breakout target. Reasonable volume traded as well. Any comments from the chartists on the last week or so?

I'd love to see that 30c breakout materialise!

 

[Mactavish]

Another week has gone by and i was tempted to sell out at 52 cents on tues/wed when the price dropped a few cents, but im glad im still in to receive todays gains, come on breakout!

 

[Dukey]

Hey! - got my full allocation of new shares... - only 9000 odd - but more than my entitlement , so was quite pleasantly surprised esp since the SP is 15c higher . ... there is alot to be said for an easy grand in the bank isn't there !!
- not planning on selling though. at least for the medium term.
I'm with YT here - likely t/o target sometime.... by someone!
... waiting .... waiting...
-e

 

[Sean K]

A strong finish today and moving awfully close to our 60c breakout target. Reasonable volume traded as well. Any comments from the chartists on the last week or so?

I'd love to see that 30c breakout materialise!

Yep, it's looking really good, but that resistance is a challenge. My next buy will probably be off the lower support, or through 60, which should be a great oportunity.

 

[CapnBirdseye]

__________________
Mexico holiday - Isla Mujeres

Great place, I was there a while ago, I had a great time - so totally chilled... I'm very envoius. I may go back again some time and combine it with a road trip to the pacific... Puerto Escondido, one of my other fave places on the planet...

 

[CapnBirdseye]

Good increase in SP Friday... didn't we have the same last Friday? Most likely a big conicidence, or people waiting to see if there was a sell off after the capital raising, which happened to some extent, but quite limited really. Low of .505 this week I think.

 

[Sean K]

Great place, I was there a while ago, I had a great time - so totally chilled... I'm very envoius. I may go back again some time and combine it with a road trip to the pacific... Puerto Escondido, one of my other fave places on the planet...

Yes, this is my second visit here, and first stop of the month trip. Will be coming back for the final couple of days as well. Awesome coastline all the way to The Bay Islands Honduras really. Like North Queensland except there are wide white fluffy beaches, the reef is closer, and you can get in the water without a stinger suit, nor worry about prehistoric reptiles hiding in waiting.

What's this thread about?

Ah, MEL.

Just on that breakup from 60 and the potential target from the triangle, there is another factor at play technically tha will be difficult to overcome I think and that is all the congestion between 70 and 90c. We could well release through that after 60, but it won't be an easy road from the looks of that..

The longer term funnymentalists don't need to worry about too much of course and just wait till your true value is reached.

Still lots of uncertainties in these plays, so I tend to just follow the charts.

 

[Datsun Disguise]

Yep, it's looking really good, but that resistance is a challenge. My next buy will probably be off the lower support, or through 60, which should be a great oportunity.

There goes 60c - will it hold is the next question. Looking at the chart (imo) this is just waiting for a breakout - rising support line - flat resistance, sellers being slowly weeded out - noting the congestion at 70-80c tho. Might need some positive news to move through that barrier.

 

[kingbrown]

Have been chasing this critter since last thursday and she's hit turbo today
Guess its all the hoo haa! about SANTOS noticed ESG did well also

Ahh well waiting for a re-trace tomorrow ??

 

[Dukey]

Have been chasing this critter since last thursday and she's hit turbo today
Guess its all the hoo haa! about SANTOS noticed ESG did well also

Ahh well waiting for a re-trace tomorrow ??

Don't say that!! I'm waiting for 70c tomorrow!!

.. no but seriously - I wouldn't be surprised to see MEL hold above 60c. Still undervalued compared to most CSG'ers but some consolidation there before the next move up might be a good thing.

Another potential buyer in the market won't hurt either!

- the 40c shares were a great pickup for holders. I initially expected it to hover in the low 40's while people offloaded... but then you'd be mad wouldn't you.. really. considering the whole ongoing CSG hype etc.

 

[Dangerous]

There goes 60c - will it hold is the next question. Looking at the chart (imo) this is just waiting for a breakout - rising support line - flat resistance, sellers being slowly weeded out - noting the congestion at 70-80c tho. Might need some positive news to move through that barrier.

at one point yesterday there was about 1.8M buyers and 134,000 sellers. An hour later there was a few more buyers but 1.1M sellers! After seeing that i'm thinking it will struggle to get past 70... still though a positive announcement from MEL or someone else in NSW and we're on.

Like you Dukey i applied for a lot more than my entitlement. When i saw it was fully subscribed i went and bought more at 49c and then when my allocation came through i was pumped - i got 65% of my application.

Happy at this stage, but not too trusting of the markets at the moment (i give them two months max). Cautious on everything but gold, HGO, LNN (for a 6% gain) and WOW

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I keep saying it and have since 40c when (not if) the takeover comes its going to many multiples of current share price

Look at any other CSG companies presentation and if they have a bit on comparative EV's you see that MEL is the cheapest by far on 2P and 3P booked reserves

So hence why I have a truckload and am not fussed about movements here or there but rather waiting for the takeover

 

[johannlo]

Well I don't have a truckload (LOL) but I do hope you're right young trader.

The figures do look good to my amateur eyes.

There will be big gains for all gas explorers w/ good reserves and enough cashflow to keep operating till paydirt (I also hold CNX along with this logic) likewise I am waiting for big rises before selling as opposed to 20% quick profit, as tempting as it may be.