MEL - Metgasco Limited

[sinner]

Hi guys,

I am currently holding both AOE (as my portfolios long term exposure to gas) and MEL with an eye to it being a takeover target.

In the hypothetical situation that MEL gets taken over by AOE, won't the value of the AOE shares drop by a proportional amount, thereby wiping out any gains on MEL?

I would prefer to see AJL or STO take over both MEL and ESG then I would just stick 10% of the overall return into whichever company did the taking over.

 

[jancha]

Sinner,
I'm in much the same position as you are in holding AOE MEL & a few other CSG companies. If you look at PES anything can happen. Like all these threads on CSG everyone's just guessing the out come. If AOE were to take over MEL at a premium price it probably would drop but say they picked it up at a reasonable price like AOEs 1st offer for PES then i think it would have only strengthen the company & it's SP. Long term if this is the way energy is going CGS will only continue to go up.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I have taken some profits today as the record date for the SPP is Monday and I would have thought some selling may occur monday allowing me to buy back lower though I could be wrong

ESG BOW and VPE all continue to capture the mkts attn which bodes well for the sector


Chartists any views?

 

[Dangerous]

Sinner,
I'm in much the same position as you are in holding AOE MEL & a few other CSG companies. If you look at PES anything can happen. Like all these threads on CSG everyone's just guessing the out come. If AOE were to take over MEL at a premium price it probably would drop but say they picked it up at a reasonable price like AOEs 1st offer for PES then i think it would have only strengthen the company & it's SP. Long term if this is the way energy is going CGS will only continue to go up.

has anyone considered ramp up gas going to NSW and ESG prospects being a considerable threat to sending ramp up down south?

If ESG were to produce domestic gas, the LNG players access to NSW would be blocked.

Whilst there are no planned pipes/tie ins from QLD fields into the NSW, it would be a good way to deal with ramp up gas.

 

[jetblack]

I hold MEL and think that the interest of the gas in QLD seems centred on export to Asian mkts. I wonder why MEL did not raise more funds as they say that they were over subscribed and the sector is "hot".

IMO they are in a better position to caputure the eastern sea board mkts and I believe thay this cap raising is to entice a T/O or one big farmin partner.

The shares will start smokin. DYOR

 

[Dukey]

has anyone considered ramp up gas going to NSW and ESG prospects being a considerable threat to sending ramp up down south?

If ESG were to produce domestic gas, the LNG players access to NSW would be blocked.

Whilst there are no planned pipes/tie ins from QLD fields into the NSW, it would be a good way to deal with ramp up gas.

there are two planned pipelines of interest - one from western qld TO newcastle area (not MEL); the other from MEL's tenements near casino to SEQ - about 150klm.

see post 46 and others about that time in this thread.

I think it makes sense for MEL to tie into SEQld - those LNG plants will need as much gas as they can get, and SEQ is still the fastest growing part of OZ - I think...? isn't it?

On the whole the CSG sector has been fantastic through the slump and picking the t/o targets has become the biggest game in town. MEL is so undervalued in comparison to most that every bigger fish must be considering a tilt..... all IMO of course.

- holding... MEL, AOE, ESG, BUL, and wanting mpo, bow !!!!!!!

 

[Dangerous]

dukey, ramp up is explained in my comments on the KAR thread.

MEL are massively undervalued considering their mkt cap one-tenth of ESG yet they have the same reserves.

I guess it all comes down to pipelines though.

The pipe to Newcastle you mention. Is that the Hunter valley one that BG axed after TO of QGC?

 

[Dukey]

dukey, ramp up is explained in my comments on the KAR thread.

MEL are massively undervalued considering their mkt cap one-tenth of ESG yet they have the same reserves.

I guess it all comes down to pipelines though.

The pipe to Newcastle you mention. Is that the Hunter valley one that BG axed after TO of QGC?

I thought it was still on - but if you know different then so be it.

MEL's pipeline makes more sense to me.

(Me! - post no. 46 this thread) Have been looking a bit closer today at these pipelines to sort out my own lack of knowledge/confusion regarding diff proposals - it seems there are 2 main proposals:

1. The big one in the announcement below is the $850M 'Qld - hunter pipeline' - which is supposed to carry gas from Western Qld to Hunter region (Newcastle) in NSW for a gas fired power plant. This would be a 800 odd-klm pipeline!!

As such - I'm not sure how this one will impact MEL - maybe not much at all, it's too far west. But it will attract attention to CSG in NSW

2. The other MEL proposal is called the ' lions way pipeline' - to transport gas from Casino about 150klm to SE Qld (Ipswich - Brisbane - gold coast). Much shorter than the western one. Costs could be around $200Mill (just going relative to the other pipe).

At first glance the MEL pipe makes more sense to me - it seems strange to bring gas from QLD to NSW (western pipeline), when there are already plenty of largely undeveloped reserves in sub-coastal and central NSW - ESG, AGK and MEL having most of them as far as I know. I mean the gloucester basin which AGK just bought is right there!!!.... next to where they want to build a power plant.
... I don't get it??

On the other hand - if MEL can build a short pipeline to feed into SEQ - the fastest growing residential area in Oz - with the potential of also supplying the LNG plants, or swapping gas with those companies - then they will be laughing IMO.

It's all very interesting.... the main message is that CSG is not going away and still the place to be in these dodgy markets.
Think I'm gonna use my PES $$ to buy more of all the NSW coal seamers... sooner or later they will charge just like the QLDers.... probably sooner.

-E


... just picked up a few MPO - will have a tightish (for me) stop on it though.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

The CBM/CSM sector continues to fire, I read articles about BG going after VPE (which would explain the price rise) and Santos going after ESG, not sure why BOW is running so hard

Anyway MEL seems to be one of the cheapest on an EV per Reservers status (will put up a pic of the table that compares all the Aussie CSM/CBM players when I get a chance)

Just announced a placement at 40c + a rights issue at 40c so I would think perhaps 40c becomes a base

Anyway looked good for a punt

DYOR

Hey Strat, go for it mate,

Those articles are public (not mine) they are available to all via simple web search


Was just looking at MPO and how it sold its NSW Gloucester PEL 285 for $370m to AGL (MPO only had 30% interest)

PEL 285 had 2P of 180 PJ and 3P of 360 PJ

MEL has 2P of 247 PJ and 3P of 1400 PJ

Based on recent take overs and even MPO's sale I would think MEL stands a fair chance of having an offer made given its current mkt cap is $75m with $15m cash leaving an EV of $60m for those large 2P and 3P reserves

Still so so cheap on a comparative EV basis to say ESG or the sale MPO achieved for its NSW Gloucester PEL 285,

This reminds me of MTN, during the U Bull MTN was the only U stock with a large deposit to remain ridiculously undervalued compared to its peers. While all its peers commanded very high EV's per lb of uranium resource MTN traded at a ridiculous discount, anyway a takeover offer eventually came and MTN rallied from 50c to $^ gains of over 1200%, while I'm not saying this will happen here what I am 100% confident of is that sooner or later the situation will resolve itself where MEL will trade on EV per 2P or 3P that is closer to its peers

 

[pointr]

I don't know if this has a downward bearing on MEL's SP but as most of their acreage seems to be near coastal or in higher population areas pipeline access is going to be more difficult than in outback Queensland. Rivers,hills, mountains equals expense, plus higher population density means more potential locals that dont want a CSG project in their backyard. Consider the problems SGL had trying to develop a project in a valley on the NSW central coast. Merely my
I dont hold MEL, but have some MPO, who are involved in some of the same PEL's

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

You have to remember though SGL got bought out, there's just too much corporate activity in the sector for MEL a stock with one of largest certified reserves (larger than ESG's yet a fraction of the mkt cap) to go unoticed

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

BRR presentation out today from recent Oil and Gas conference

http://www.brr.com.au/event/56988


Holding around the mid 40's with prudent buyers soaking up profit takers from recent placement/SPP at 40c

Somethings gotta give sooner or later

 

[nomore4s]

MEL is an interesting one atm.

I was going to give it till the end of the week to start moving or I would be exiting, want to see some follow through tomorrow now. I have moved my stop up to 42.5c anyway.

MEL looks to be forming a massive triangle and the target for a break through 60c is around 95c. I will look to buy another parcel on a confirmed break of 60c.

 

[TheAbyss]

Up 8% today on pretty decent volume.

Looks like it may follow through on the targets posted recently.

Happy days people

 

[big sal]

Somethings gotta give sooner or later

Buyers stacking up and sellers thinning out so it could happen soon!

Given its huge potential MEL has been frustrating to watch recently (has traded between 30 and 60c since October 2008 and more recently in the 40 to 50c range) when others (ESG, BOW, BUL) have been heading north.

MEL still a way of its 12 month high of $1.50 so plenty to look forward to.

 

[nomore4s]

Well we got that follow through today. Massive volume and a very good close.

Now to see how price and volume reacts if it tests resistance at 60c, I actually would like to see some consolidation just below 60c or even better just above 60c but I've got the feeling if 60c is over come prices could shoot towards 70-75c without a rest.
If 60c is rejected on a weak close and high volume, I will probably look to exit.

 

[big sal]

Well we got that follow through today. Massive volume and a very good close.

Very nice, up over 15%!

Looking good with buyers (2.5M units) piling up on the sellers (300K units) so could keep pushing higher

 

[Dangerous]

Anyone on the rights issue?... i applied for 20 times my entitlement (i had 10000 miss the entitlement that i thought were going to make it)

Hope like hell it is undersubscribed but i very much doubt it - only 7 or 8 or so mill and directors are claiming $1m of it

 

[JTLP]

Chartists...please help me out here...looking to get my feet wet with MEL

I have noticed some steep declines for MEL over the last 2 days...with today MEL finishing on its daily low. It has been in an uptrend since Mid Dec '08...and with my extremely basic EW skillzzz...looks to be a wave 4?

I can also see some long term support just above the 40 cent area...which would also coincide with the placement. Where are we all predicting a bounce off for MEL (if it holds)?

I was thinking of putting in an order @ 41.5/42 with a stop @ 39 (just under rights issue support).

I am not asking for investment advice but what do chartists think of this for a set up?

Thanks for your help

 

[Nero64]

Hi JTLP,

Just wondering where you started your EW forcasting. If it was mid Dec then the waves don't progress high enough above wave 1. If early March then the the 4th wave goes below wave 1 which is breaking one of the EW rules.

I see support around the .40c mark. If it get's down there then I would wait for the retrace to confirm a reversal using volume and price movement.

It has good 2P CSM reserves but it playing 2nd fiddle to its larger NSW rival ESG.