MEL - Metgasco Limited

[Largesse]

Buy and sell 100k shares x 5 in 30 mins, it will drive it down. If a whole bunch of people do it then it's what we are seeing. There is a whole theory behind this which unfortunately I am not here to educate. sorry.

PS: I bought for the long term. But unfortuantely got screwed early. Now I bought and sold at peak last week. Because I noticed when it reached $0.80 or so everyone else did. But if the shares werent so unstable I would definately hold on for long term.

Metgasco is a great company. The NSW deposits of methane enough to generate power for 30,000 homes for the next 650+ years!!!!

you do realise that whenever someone buys 100k shares, there is someone on the other side of the trade selling those 100k shares to them don't you?

 

[outback]

So when you sold at 0.80 you weren't driving the price down?. Speculating a little that you'd pick them up at 0.60 next week? Saucepans calling boilers off white per chance?

 

[RobVan]

So when you sold at 0.80 you weren't driving the price down?. Speculating a little that you'd pick them up at 0.60 next week? Saucepans calling boilers off white per chance?

Not sure what to say to that? I never said I bought 100k, it was an example I used. Second, it's not about what I do as an individual its about 400 sellers driving the price down in predetory behaviour. Speak to professional brokers they'll give you the run down, causing panic and further sell-0ffs in an already volatile market.

 

[skyQuake]

Not sure what to say to that? I never said I bought 100k, it was an example I used. Second, it's not about what I do as an individual its about 400 sellers driving the price down in predetory behaviour. Speak to professional brokers they'll give you the run down, causing panic and further sell-0ffs in an already volatile market.

What if those 400 sellers had bought at 30c? Are they not entitled to sell their shares for profit as they see fit after a big run UP?
Since its already established that MEL is not a shortable stock, so all those sellers must have been once buyers.

 

[RobVan]

What if ose 400 sellers had bought at 30c? Are they not entitled to sell their shares for profit as they see fit after a big run UP?
Since its already established that MEL is not a shortable stock, so all those sellers must have been once buyers.

Certainly they are. But certain groups/companies abuse the system and buy, sell, buy, sell in one day - everyday. These people keep small cap prices down (roughly speaking). So a small cap company is consistently dependant on news of new and better things to maintain the same price level that it reached the day before when it reached that price because of an announcement. In other words if an announcement is made and the s/p goes from $0.5 to $0.7 then these people will ensure that the prices is always heading back down. Unless further anouncements come thorugh to stop the slide. This also prsents another dilema in that, the price is not reflective of the value of the company and hence contributes to an artificial devaluation or valuation of a company's stock. If a company has market cap of $780 mill, they shouldn't be worth the same price as another company in the same sector with $300 mill market cap.

If someone is buying and selling the same lot many times a day and if there is a large number of these individuals then this is detrimental and in a way it is contributing to negative slide of the s/p.

Your example is different quake. You are reffering to people who buy cheap and sit on it and then sell when it gets to an attractive s/p. That's fine, and it's normal.

 

[nomore4s]

If a company has market cap of $780 mill, they shouldn't be worth the same price as another company in the same sector with $300 mill market cap.

A company with a market cap of $780mil isn't worth the same as a company with a market cap of $300mil.
Do you even understand what a market cap is? A company with a $780mil market cap can be the same share price as a $300mil market cap company for a very valid reason.

If someone is buying and selling the same lot many times a day and if there is a large number of these individuals then this is detrimental and in a way it is contributing to negative slide of the s/p.

Why is it not contributing to a rise in the SP as well?

 

[RobVan]

A company with a market cap of $780mil isn't worth the same as a company with a market cap of $300mil.
Do you even understand what a market cap is? A company with a $780mil market cap can be the same share price as a $300mil market cap company for a very valid reason.




Why is it not contributing to a rise in the SP as well?

Yes more often than not there aren't any valid reason, except the s/p being afftected by the sort of practices mentioned above. Anyway, the markets are f...cked atm because of the unsavoury practices that I am trying very hard to explain (but fail to get through). It's done, whether you agree with my arguments or not, the markets which form the basis of our capitalist systems are malfunctioning and need to be fixed asap. If there was nothing wrong with them we wouldn't be here in this mess. Who says this? read the article I posted earlier.

Cheers

PS: market capitalization is the share price multiplied by the number of shares in issue, providing a total value for the company's shares and thus for the company as a whole.

 

[skyQuake]

Certainly they are. But certain groups/companies abuse the system and buy, sell, buy, sell in one day - everyday. These people keep small cap prices down (roughly speaking).

Why would they do that? If a firm wants to make money it can only do so if the price RISES consider the small cap isnt shortable! If its downtick all the time and it isnt shortable, NO-ONE makes money from it. Remember that equities are not 0 sum unlike futs.

So a small cap company is consistently dependant on news of new and better things to maintain the same price level that it reached the day before when it reached that price because of an announcement. In other words if an announcement is made and the s/p goes from $0.5 to $0.7 then these people will ensure that the prices is always heading back down. Unless further anouncements come thorugh to stop the slide.

Again, why? Whats the point in keeping the price down? How can a firm make money that way? The only way to push prices down is to sell. Which means selling their existing holdings. Buying 100k shares then selling 100k shares does not push the price down. Just costs you the spread and brokerage. If it does, then why not short stock and do this till the stock price reaches 0?

 

[TheAbyss]

For anyone with any positive thoughts on MEL this is well worth a listen. If you can place any credit in what David Johnson has to say (and i have no reason not to) this story has many chapters to come.

More gas than initially anticipated, love that line (remembering they already believed it to be the largest find in a century within NSW).

Be patient and you will be rewarded is my take away from this interview. 10 weeks of further testing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64075/partner/theaustralian

 

[skip9]

Interesting Listen.

With such good results of testing from Kingfisher what can MEL look towards in the future and more importantly where do we think this stock can reach? Does it have the potential to increase significantly?

 

[skip9]

It would be good if the market responded appropriately and we saw a steady rise rather than the usual day trader bashing.

 

[RobVan]

Just released:

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article206553.ece

Metgasco bumps NSW numbers
Australia’s Metgasco said further drilling and testing at the PEL 16 licence in New South Wales had boosted proved and probable reserves by 33% over previous estimates to 397 petajoules.

Upstream staff 16 February 2010 01:58 GMT

Metgasco said an independent study had also estimated proved, probable and possible at the licence at 2239 petajoules.

Proved reserves remain 2.7 petajoules.

The updated reserves replace figures released in March last year.

Metgasco managing director David Johnson said the reserves figures were based entirely on exploration and development of coalbed methane resources and did not include the company’s recent discovery of a conventional gas reservoir on the permit in the Kingfisher-E1 well.

Hopefuly this should bring it up to the mid 70's. I wouldn't sell it cheap at this stage.

Cheers

 

[CapnBirdseye]

I'd say this was the least most people were expecting. This upgrade should have been factored in by the market, hence the rise and fall over the day.

Unfortunately, there is likely to be some weakness in MEL's SP, if past performance is anything to go by. At least until the next ann....

 

[RobVan]

I'd say this was the least most people were expecting. This upgrade should have been factored in by the market, hence the rise and fall over the day.

Unfortunately, there is likely to be some weakness in MEL's SP, if past performance is anything to go by. At least until the next ann....

Well with an outlook like that, no wonder the s/p are going to the ****ter. If investors don't belive in the company then no hope for sustained growth.

 

[CapnBirdseye]

I don't like it any more than you do, but that's the way it had been in the past. Either understand it to allow you to stay in the market longer term without worryiny about these downtrends on low volume/interest, or use it to increase your holding.

As far as T/A goes, it's my understanding that a falling SP on low volumes isn't a big worry in the longer term.

 

[xolstis]

Well with an outlook like that, no wonder the s/p are going to the ****ter. If investors don't belive in the company then no hope for sustained growth.

Erm I think the good Captain is just stating a fact. It is the nature of markets to be as such and I think most people on this forum is in general agreement of this.

The fact that your views seem to be constantly contradicting the rest of the forum probably means you're exceptionally brilliant and can see things the way the rest of us can't and are therefore making a killing on the markets.

If this is not the case, perhaps you had better re-examine your understanding and approach to the markets to avoid getting burnt bad.

 

[Dangerous]

For anyone with any positive thoughts on MEL this is well worth a listen. If you can place any credit in what David Johnson has to say (and i have no reason not to) this story has many chapters to come.

More gas than initially anticipated, love that line (remembering they already believed it to be the largest find in a century within NSW).

Be patient and you will be rewarded is my take away from this interview. 10 weeks of further testing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/64075/partner/theaustralian

I have been patient Abyss... thanks for the BRR link by the way.

I have numerous concerns about the monetisation of this resource. I will hold on for the 10 weeks, but will want to see something good! There are way too many reserves in the one tenement - PEL 16 - and the flow rates do not match the resource when compared to Fairview, Talinga, Spring Gully, Berwyndale South, etc...

 

[Dangerous]

From Arrow Energy (AOE) drilling report:

Clarence Moreton Basin.
Total Resource in the Clarence Moreton Basin is 14,075 PJ.
A hydro-fracture pilot was recently completed and preparation of this well for commencement of production and testing continues. Previous exploration drilling in the area has confirmed that the Walloon Coal Measures are well developed in this area, with thick seams and favourable gas contents.

AOE tenements surround MEL... if anyone is to acquire MEL it will be AOE. AOE are looking to add 1500PJ/a... if they cannot do so organically they may have a look...

 

[RobVan]

From Arrow Energy (AOE) drilling report:

Clarence Moreton Basin.
Total Resource in the Clarence Moreton Basin is 14,075 PJ.
A hydro-fracture pilot was recently completed and preparation of this well for commencement of production and testing continues. Previous exploration drilling in the area has confirmed that the Walloon Coal Measures are well developed in this area, with thick seams and favourable gas contents.

AOE tenements surround MEL... if anyone is to acquire MEL it will be AOE. AOE are looking to add 1500PJ/a... if they cannot do so organically they may have a look...

Thank you Dangerous. I'll be looking out for any signs.

..........................................

 

[Dangerous]

Thank you Dangerous. I'll be looking out for any signs.

..........................................

certainly listen to the BRR link on Abyss post as well. Mid-April we should see some Kingfisher certification. There cannot be much more in PEL16, so this one is the key.