JohnDe
La dolce vita
- Joined
- 11 March 2020
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Yeah "sentiment is flying OUT THE WINDOW".Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.
View attachment 147292
Good afternoon JohndeSell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.
View attachment 147292
Good afternoon Johnde
For mine, the whole market.
Not holding at present, and nearly picked up but decided not to. Looking very closely
Have a very nice day, today.
Kind regards
rcw1
Good morning JohnDeLooking good today rcw1
I did pick up. The question now is - hold or sell.
Hi rcw.Hi rcw1.
B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
Spin doctors may use their excessive enthusiasm to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".
Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –
Bad points = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.
Good Points = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.
LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent Triple Top, then the Lower Highs & Lower Lows.
View attachment 146758
I personally like the Ord Minnett “direct and blunt attitude” to their analysis.
All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.
AND
That you do Lots, and Lots of your own research.
Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."
As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.
Cheers M8.
Good afternoon GunnerguyI’m wanting to sell some put spreads a lot lower say $5.50/$5.00. If it drops I’ll sell the deep long, pick up some extra PM, and then possibly buy a bucketfull for the long term, and sell covered calls for more PM.
Gunnerguy
Hi rcw1.
B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
Spin doctors may use their excessive enthusiasm to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
Cheers M8.
Picked up this arvo JohnDeHave you changed theory?
Picked up this arvo JohnDe
Kind regards
rcw1
Good afternoonA good gamble. Personally, I think LYC still has growth prospects. Many governments want to minimise their dependance on China rare earth supply, so that means that here will be increased interest in mining and production in companies like LYC.
My original comment that you have quoted was meant for DrBourse, who stated that "excessive enthusiasm" in LYC is misled because LYC was on the down because of "new technologies evolving".
DrBourse may be right, but he gave no evidence other than to tell everyone to google 'new technologies'. His last post was confusing for me, so I just wanted some clarification from him.
Good afternoonPicked up this arvo JohnDe
Kind regards
rcw1
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