LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

ROE · 9 August 2011

Julia1979 said:
54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable.

This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one
with a market cap of over 3 billion $.

Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).

regards
Julia

If I have this view I would short the stock
Plenty more down size, why not short them ?

drlog · 9 August 2011

notting said:
There not cheap from a short history point of view. However, Roger has valued them very highly and his valuations are usually extremely conservative. It's such an extreme move from his normal valuations in terms of relative height to current trading with no earnings it could be a reputation killer. I think he is far to sensible for that. That's got my interest and a bit more of my money this morning.

Roger also had the stipulation on his valuation that REE prices need to remain high. Based soley on the EPS forecasts in commsec, I actually agree with Roger's future valuation but those EPS forecasts are based on high REE prices.

So, I think LYC is "cheap" IF:

1. Rare earth prices stay reasonably high (the $200 basket price is unrealistic. It will probably fall once LYC is supplying)

2. LAMP is constructed and running by the end of the year

3. LAMP expansion goes to plan

There are a lot of ifs there so beware.

Honestly, I think Julia makes some good points but so do others. In contrast to Julia, I hold long.

Starcraftmazter · 9 August 2011

I would say the only real risk to LYC is a massive global economic slowdown which causes a slowdown in the adoption of more expensive green technologies.

If the price of oil plummets, unemployment rises worldwide in developed countries (even more), then there will be less willingness by people to buy green products, less willingness by governments to invest in anything (including green projects?), less demand for high-tech electronics. Basically all the stuff RE is used for.

On the other hand, what better stimulus to use in order to restart the world's economy than a massive green technology investment plan by G20? Millions of electric cars to end the OECD's dependence on foreign oil, wind farms, etc. A bit too optimistic though....

notting · 9 August 2011

A massive global down turn? Surely not. I mean the stock markets are forward looking indicators and there's nothing wrong there is there.
Frankly I found it pretty amazing how overpriced Ipads and Iphones have been so huge in what is supposed to be such a crapy global situation. I mean really a $1000 phone? Need to have or nice to have when things are tough?
Amazing what free to air marketing will do for a product. Every news paper and service plugs iphones and Ipads for nothing all the time. Oh look at the cues for the Ipad release. No wonder the old media is going broke. How stupid are they. How many advertising dollars lost there?
It's the Beatles! YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH
Jim Rogers, one of Rogers mentors is shorting tech stuff.

Where am I?

Starcraftmazter · 9 August 2011

Don't get me started on Apple...it would be my dream if they went bankrupt during some depression because people woke up and smelled the roses. But no, they have been purposely paying crap all dividends in a pathetic attempt to build enough capital to remain solvent hoping things will return to "normal".

/rant.

oldblue · 10 August 2011

Millions of electric cars to end the OECD's dependence on foreign oil, wind farms, etc. A bit too optimistic though....

A nice thought, maybe.

But you wouldn't want those millions of electric cars powered byelectricity generated by dirty coal-burning plants. Nuclear, perhaps? After all, new generation batteries are still just storage devices, they don't generate their own power.

notting · 10 August 2011

Excellent point. They never seem to provide specs on how much your I pad is really costing u after you have recharged it every day for 2 years!! $5000, $10,000. My that is expensive!
Then of course there's your I phone, I Pod. I CeAge.

Liar's Poker · 10 August 2011

notting said:
Excellent point. They never seem to provide specs on how much your I pad is really costing u after you have recharged it every day for 2 years!! $5000, $10,000. My that is expensive!
Then of course there's your I phone, I Pod. I CeAge.

$5-10k.

Slight over-estimation.

notting · 10 August 2011

Liar's Poker said:
$5-10k.

Slight over-estimation.

Well that's what Tony Abbot told me it's going to cost!

nioka · 10 August 2011

Julia1979 said:
54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable.

This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one
with a market cap of over 3 billion $.

Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).

regards
Julia

The "old" Julia returns. With the same old whatiffs. Maybe we should add "what if we get hit by a meteorite", just as likely to happen as all those negatives. If I had such a negative attitude of a stock I certainly wouldnt even read forum posts about it. ( unless of course I was shorting it and my shorts were on fire.)

Julia1979 · 10 August 2011

nioka said:
The "old" Julia returns. With the same old whatiffs. Maybe we should add "what if we get hit by a meteorite", just as likely to happen as all those negatives. If I had such a negative attitude of a stock I certainly wouldnt even read forum posts about it. ( unless of course I was shorting it and my shorts were on fire.)

The anticipation of risks and "whatiffs" normally is THE most important skill of a successful investor. Until greed steps in of course.

You are sarcasticly comparing the event of getting hit by a meteorite with the event of politicians retaining power by delaying unpopular decisions. Is this a smart thing to do? Think about it.

Disclosure: closed my short position monday and tuesday (see above). Looking for new short engagements above $ 2

notting · 10 August 2011

Julia1979 said:
Disclosure: closed my short position monday and tuesday (see above). Looking for new short engagements above $ 2

You could have filled that this morning!

Julia1979 · 11 August 2011

notting said:
You could have filled that this morning!

As you can see, LYC is incredibly strong. I think this is driven by irrational unrealistic price and earning projections but it is as it is and if would ignore that, I would be a poor investor.

Asian markets.. wow! This is a historical day IMO. Wallstreet tanks 4-5 % and major indices in asia close green or almost untouched. I have been waiting for this to happen. It shows, that people begin to realize that these crooks in NYC are not the centre of the (financial) world any more. I wonder if politicians around the globe get the message of these crazy times. If the FED, banks, especially investment banks will not be regulated now, we are all doomed. UK riots show, what can and will happen to our democracies if banking crooks will continue to have a free ride for almost anything while we pay for them over and over again. If we don't oppose now, our children and grandchildren will receive the big bill.

1979 regards
Julia

LiL_JaSoN · 14 August 2011

Julia1979 said:
you're becoming more and more professional, jochi But thanks for your wishes. And yes: I moved to this forum because I was suspended simply for being critical which was valued as "downramping" which is absurd because LYC is a liquid stock and no individual on this planet is able to move such a stock one way or the other.

Again why you come here and spill your arguments. What are you gaining from this??

Why do you care about the other investors that have their money invested in this stock? Telling them its overvalued, the bubble is going to burst, It's not going to make it?

If you don't think it's not worth investing in, then don't buy it, sell it, do whatever you want. We don't care what you do with your money. Why care about us and what we do with our money? If we loose money what do you have to gain from us loosing?

Surely if i came across a stock I don't like, I just move on and don't go telling all the share holders to sell because of how crap I think the company is.

You say its over priced, yet there's 100's/1000's of investors that think this is cheap and buying. If the majority of the market thought it was overpriced, then the stock price wouldn't be where it is today. Supply and demand - If there was more people like you thinking it was over priced, then obviously the SP would be lower? So what's going on?

Must be a reason why your down ramping this stock. What are you gaining from this? getting paid to down ramp Lynas? working for Arafura? You sure know abit about of company to to not be involved in it and go around and spill the goss.

WhoToTrust · 14 August 2011

drlog said:
So, I think LYC is "cheap" IF:

1. Rare earth prices stay reasonably high (the $200 basket price is unrealistic. It will probably fall once LYC is supplying)

2. LAMP is constructed and running by the end of the year

3. LAMP expansion goes to plan

There are a lot of ifs there so beware.

Has this been posted in here yet?

Large Rare Earth's find in US

TheAbyss · 15 August 2011

WhoToTrust said:
Has this been posted in here yet?

Large Rare Earth's find in US

Hence the expression, "They shouldbe called Rarely mined not rare earths!

Window of opportunity to sign contracts is now.

Starcraftmazter · 15 August 2011

WhoToTrust said:
Has this been posted in here yet?

Large Rare Earth's find in US

Just shows how far ahead LYC is from it's competitors.

ROE · 15 August 2011

Rare earth is not rare

but processing it to a usable form, something apple can use for the iPhone is rare outside China

I think I said this previously, China been selling it too cheap ... its not that cheap to produce Rare earth
it has issues, it leave behind radioactive stuff ..... The world gave control to China some years ago because
it much easier and cheaper buying from the Chinese...now the table turns, you cant no longer go on selling this
stuff cheap...

I do have Lynas recently I think I said that too, I'm forgetful

If thing goes according to plan, this baby can have a very nice cash flow machine in a few years, but like all stock investment there are risk involves so buy with care.....

And I have no issues with people ramming my stock down, when they go low enough I buy more ...
Stuff I buy should stand decent attack from fundamental fronts and rumour mongers.

I encourage people to short stocks I own

Starcraftmazter · 17 August 2011

ROE said:
And I have no issues with people ramming my stock down, when they go low enough I buy more ...
Stuff I buy should stand decent attack from fundamental fronts and rumour mongers.

I encourage people to short stocks I own

I like your attitude

Julia1979 · 18 August 2011

LiL_JaSoN said:
Again why you come here and spill your arguments. What are you gaining from this??

What is your point?
you think, we should all leave here?
Not allowed to question investments?
Very strange indeed IMO

Market is waiting for a waste management plan these days.

Good news for ARU today. BTW

regards
Julia

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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