You are not sure. I am sure it is cross promotion and ramping a stock that could not be compared with LYC for value. NAV is that far behind in the rare earth business compared to LYC that it is not even on my "interested" list.
I'm not sure how appropriate that cross-promotion of Navigator resources is. I mean that was basically an advertisement for NAV on the LYC board...
Can anyone verify that the REE prices on the Lynas website are accurate? $70 a kilo per average weighted REE is a big rise from Q3 yet the price action has not followed what you would think would be a big rise in future profits?
Also does anyone have an estimate of total cash cost per tonne?
or even total operating costs per tonne?
Just wondering what sort of payback ratio its going to have over the next 2 or 3 years.
Lynas website has been shown to be accurate as prices are published on different metal exchanges.
Lynas has published costs around $7 kilo. Calculations by outside sources have used costs around $9 to establish value for LYC. They also use $30 on a regular basis as a sale price. Even using the high cost and low value revenue there is still a very short pay back time.
These can easily be checked from company and broker news releases.
Thanks Noika I searched some reports but could not find a predicted cost per kg. Lynas has contracts to sell its rare earths with a price floor but no ceiling? The basket price per kg is currently at $70 and demand is predicted to rise, so $30 feels like a conservative estimate to me.
So taking a $9 cost and a $30 price, thats $21 a kg profit on 11 000 tons in the first year: which equals a 230M profit.
With 500m shares out there thats a ball park figure of 30c earnings per share after tax. Makes $1.50 look very low.
Is there something im missing here? I am just a student.
I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).
However, IF you are right and the profit/kg is correct and there are no problems processing the material then yes, we shareholders should make some money
I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).
I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).
However, IF you are right and the profit/kg is correct and there are no problems processing the material then yes, we shareholders should make some money
You have guessed CORRECTLY, they are having problems in getting one of their chemical processes to deliver the expected results in early testing. I don't know the exact nature ot how serious it is. I got this from a broker report and don't ask me which broker - I cannot remember.
HEY Nioka.
just wondered if u had a 12 month price target on Lynas??
Thanks
It would be useful if you could search your memory really hard, vincent, and point us in the direction of this report.
Any problems with their processes are likely to have a material bearing on their SP and will need to be disclosed to the market.
Ok I will go home and dig up last week's papers & magazines. Hopefully I can find it again. I am not making up stories.
Well i hope you guys are right i bought 500 of these on a hunch, with no experience at all i was going to dump them a few weeks ago but everything appears positive??
Mattryan thats a little bit inappropriate, everyone has thier own investment goals and financial advice is not offered on this forum, if you want someone to pick stocks for you, pay for analyst reports.
Also I dont know what price you bought in at, and no offence, but 500 shares at $1 -1.50 is a small parcel by anyones standards. Commsec brokerage alone puts you behind 4.5 - 6%! plus inflation and your looking at a 9% return just to break even.
Its fun to play around with a few shares here and there but dont try to pin it on us when the results are not what you expect
Haha alright. All going well I agree with Noika's vague "multiples" price estimate, which would definately cover your 9%
Potential ....... multiples. Not everything will realise their potential. I believe that LYC has the potential but DYOR please.
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