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There are several elements all impacting the REE field. In no particular order:
1) Pricing. From now until MCP, LYC, ARU and ALK produce REE prices, as a function of supply and demand, will increase. The wildcard here is China. I believe they are coming to the realization that "controlling" the market beyond the medium term is lost. China is now implementing policy -- environmental, elimination of dozens of small producers, tightening export "leak" -- which coincidentally(?!) coincides with some of the aforementioned miners becoming producers. I, then, believe China will a) focus on supplying the world with REEs already fully value added, eg. in something big like a wind turbine, or finished like a magnet, and; b) hunt down HREE supplies.
2) HREEs. Explorecos with a predominant proportion of their TREOs in HREEs will now/soon begin to go up with a vengeance.
3) First past the post. No one, Chinese excluded (see above) beats the Aussies here for choice. Yes, MCP, but they've got to re-build their facilities almost from scratch. So line 'em up boys! LYC, ARU, ALK! The Cannucks have REAL prospects. AVL will take years, end of decade time-line, needs hundreds of millions of dollars, its IRR is poor, and its reserve is being questioned (might be a part of a short attack), but it's heavy on the HREEs. A little further down the pecking order even the great the LREEs may go broke, flounder, be range bound, but no great gains.
4) Mania. All boats, including "penny dreadfuls," will rise. ALL. Take profit, DO NOT BE A PIG. To sober up have a look at 5 year Ux charts.
5) For real profit, real risk have a look at Rob McEwen's model/graphic on the evolution of a succesful mine from IPO to production. (If someone can find it and post it here it provides a great context with road signs as to buy, hold, sell.)
Well, sorry to bore, but those are a few, far from all, things which help me put this REE thing in perspective.
NOW LET'S MAKE MONEY!!!
SX
1) Pricing. From now until MCP, LYC, ARU and ALK produce REE prices, as a function of supply and demand, will increase. The wildcard here is China. I believe they are coming to the realization that "controlling" the market beyond the medium term is lost. China is now implementing policy -- environmental, elimination of dozens of small producers, tightening export "leak" -- which coincidentally(?!) coincides with some of the aforementioned miners becoming producers. I, then, believe China will a) focus on supplying the world with REEs already fully value added, eg. in something big like a wind turbine, or finished like a magnet, and; b) hunt down HREE supplies.
2) HREEs. Explorecos with a predominant proportion of their TREOs in HREEs will now/soon begin to go up with a vengeance.
3) First past the post. No one, Chinese excluded (see above) beats the Aussies here for choice. Yes, MCP, but they've got to re-build their facilities almost from scratch. So line 'em up boys! LYC, ARU, ALK! The Cannucks have REAL prospects. AVL will take years, end of decade time-line, needs hundreds of millions of dollars, its IRR is poor, and its reserve is being questioned (might be a part of a short attack), but it's heavy on the HREEs. A little further down the pecking order even the great the LREEs may go broke, flounder, be range bound, but no great gains.
4) Mania. All boats, including "penny dreadfuls," will rise. ALL. Take profit, DO NOT BE A PIG. To sober up have a look at 5 year Ux charts.
5) For real profit, real risk have a look at Rob McEwen's model/graphic on the evolution of a succesful mine from IPO to production. (If someone can find it and post it here it provides a great context with road signs as to buy, hold, sell.)
Well, sorry to bore, but those are a few, far from all, things which help me put this REE thing in perspective.
NOW LET'S MAKE MONEY!!!
SX
