LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[Huitzii]

0051 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Lynas Corp. (LYC.AU) price target upgraded 43% by JPMorgan analysts, to A$1.30 from A$0.91; keeps stock at Overweight. Move reflects recent move-up in LYC's basket price for rare earths, plus expected price inflation of 2.5% to first production in 2011, with broker estimating US$24.81/kg; notes this 22% below current spot basket price of US$31.94/kg but "we prefer to maintain a relatively conservative stance should current high prices prove unsustainable". JP Morgan Asset Management U.K. holds around 4% of LYC stock, making it the second-biggest holder, although research comes from JP Morgan Securities (Australia) Ltd.; both parts of JPMorgan Chase & Co. LYC last up 4.8% or 4 cents at 87 Australian cents. JPM has held Overweight rating since initiating its call in June; BBY only other broker covering. (david.fickling@dowjones.com)

Is anyone a member of BBY here, I would like to see thier reprts on LYC

 

[vincent191]

Who is BBY? Interesting week ahead. I learn over the weekend that RE is not really that rare, some of the elements are more common than zinc!!! The problem is that it is quite difficult to find "rich" deposits that are economical to mine and LYC has one of the richest deposits.

 

[Huitzii]

Who is BBY?

BBY is an Australian focused stockbroking, corporate advisory and asset management firm. With offices in Sydney, Melbourne, UK and UAE along with a global presence in the USA and Asia, BBY is well positioned to service its clients’ local and global needs.

BBY's objective is to be a leading Australian owned securities firm, providing solutions to high growth, small, medium and large sized Australian Companies including their Australian and International investors.

Read more :
http://www.bby.com.au/

A members login is required to access their research on LYC, which im interested in reading

 

[frankblack]

BBY is an Australian focused stockbroking, corporate advisory and asset management firm. With offices in Sydney, Melbourne, UK and UAE along with a global presence in the USA and Asia, BBY is well positioned to service its clients’ local and global needs.

BBY's objective is to be a leading Australian owned securities firm, providing solutions to high growth, small, medium and large sized Australian Companies including their Australian and International investors.

Read more :
http://www.bby.com.au/

A members login is required to access their research on LYC, which im interested in reading

I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?

I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.

What do you think?

 

[Huitzii]

I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?

I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.

What do you think?

What makes you think that Morgan Stanley will be offloading any time soon?
For me LYC is moving a bit slowly so I traded out today and into a better short term trade (hopefully more profitable) but if LYC shows a bit better gain soon I will jump back in.
Its just the way I trade and it works well for me....every week presents different opportunities if you look for them.
DYOR

 

[vincent191]

Huitzii...the market is a bit quiet lately for short term trading. I miss the volatile days from earlier this year, it was like bread from heaven. However lately I have given a lot of it back, LYC is my star performer now and I hope JP Morgan will push it to $1.30.

 

[Huitzii]

Huitzii...the market is a bit quiet lately for short term trading. I miss the volatile days from earlier this year, it was like bread from heaven. However lately I have given a lot of it back, LYC is my star performer now and I hope JP Morgan will push it to $1.30.

I agree it is generally a bit slow atm ,in the last month Ive made quite a few trades, some being excellent,some good and some poor,but my way of trading has seen me in the green of about 10k with a 40k float.
In trading like this a lot of time is spent reviewing over 100 charts daily.
Soon I would think I would be back in but I need see a bit more movement to suit my style of trading....for now im watching very closely
DYOR

 

[nioka]

I agree it is generally a bit slow atm ,in the last month Ive made quite a few trades, some being excellent,some good and some poor,but my way of trading has seen me in the green of about 10k with a 40k float.
In trading like this a lot of time is spent reviewing over 100 charts daily.
Soon I would think I would be back in but I need see a bit more movement to suit my style of trading....for now im watching very closely
DYOR

$40,000 invested in LYC and staying there would have made $15,000 in the last month with the potential to make more in the next month so why trade it.

 

[Huitzii]

$40,000 invested in LYC and staying there would have made $15,000 in the last month with the potential to make more in the next month so why trade it.

Im not confidant having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding
plus a few more without giving away my whole portfolio

 

[nioka]

Im not confidant having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding
plus a few more without giving away my whole portfolio

A quick calculation from my holdings in AUT, LYC and EKA show that $40,000 spread evenly over the three would now be worth $55,258. I'm suggesting that trading these can actually reduce profits when stocks like this are generally rising. To sell and try to rebuy often results in missing out on some of the gains. I much preferred to trade these when there was volatility and a falling trend.

 

[Huitzii]

A quick calculation from my holdings in AUT, LYC and EKA show that $40,000 spread evenly over the three would now be worth $55,258. I'm suggesting that trading these can actually reduce profits when stocks like this are generally rising. To sell and try to rebuy often results in missing out on some of the gains. I much preferred to trade these when there was volatility and a falling trend.

I personally like to trade out before a falling trend, on most occasions but not always I will set a buy point and a sell point, And although sometimes I could have made more profit, I reduce the risk of loosing the money that was gained.
I dont take my profits, I use it to increase my capitol.
I do spent a lot of time trying to anticipate highs and lows with T/A charts to get my entry and exit points.
In saying this my wins outweigh my losses as I would be lying if I said that I won on every trade.
If you know anyone that wins on every trade can you please give me their phone number so I can find out how to do it

 

[vincent191]

Spreading your money around a few stocks reduces your risk (that's the theory) but it also reduce your chance of making it BIG. I guess it is always the question of risk & reward.

I did not plonk enough on LYC yesterday but I did get a few at .89 so I cannot complain. LYC is the flavour of the month so I think I will give it a big whack and hope for the best. Well, no venture, no gain.

 

[TheAbyss]

I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?

I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.

What do you think?

Given that the top 20 hold 60% of LYC the likelihood of any single holder reducing their holding having any great impact is greatly reduced which is also what is giving the SP some impetus in the moment in that there are not a lot of sellers around.

If MS want out the other 19 will accomodate i am sure.

 

[vincent191]

hehehe.....made 10 cents in 1 day. Thank you very much. Sold what I bought yesterday but still hanging on to my original portfolio. LYC is better than sex.

 

[Kremmen]

Im not confidant having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding

Interesting that you've listed all 3 of my largest recently bought holdings. (fwiw, ADI was pushing LYC into 4th until until it was taken over.)

However, the other issue is time. Trading is a huge time-consumer, as you've said. You review 100 charts a day. And what about all the tedious record-keeping?! If someone can make even a vaguely similar profit by buying 4 stocks and only watching them and topping up (EKA 1:6, etc) occasionally, then I conclude that trading such stocks heavily is not a very efficient use of time.

 

[Huitzii]

Interesting that you've listed all 3 of my largest recently bought holdings. (fwiw, ADI was pushing LYC into 4th until until it was taken over.)

However, the other issue is time. Trading is a huge time-consumer, as you've said. You review 100 charts a day. And what about all the tedious record-keeping?! If someone can make even a vaguely similar profit by buying 4 stocks and only watching them and topping up (EKA 1:6, etc) occasionally, then I conclude that trading such stocks heavily is not a very efficient use of time.

My time in the evenings is all mine for chartkeeping, I do have a business that I only open on weekends when the stock market is closed...it suits my lifestyle just fine.
Well done in locking in your 10% Vincent, I didn't quite do so well but I did lock in 6.5% elsewhere so im happy.
the market is still open so I might get another opportunity for some more profits today yet.
DYOR

 

[frankblack]

Given that the top 20 hold 60% of LYC the likelihood of any single holder reducing their holding having any great impact is greatly reduced which is also what is giving the SP some impetus in the moment in that there are not a lot of sellers around.

If MS want out the other 19 will accomodate i am sure.

Thanks for your reply, Abyss
The top 20 you mentioned holding 60% of Lynas, I clearly dont know what you mean.?

Had a look for major holders, any-one with more than 5%,
only, JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates, The Capital Group Companies, Inc,
and Morgan Stanley (may even be JP morgan chase now) only they show up,
and they dont seem to have 60%.
Where can I find this major shareholder information?

Any help with my education would be appreciated, thanks.

 

[enigmatic]

Please forgive me I did not mean to implying that ARU is worth more then LYC.
just pointing out the difference in Market capital between the two Rare Earth Projects.

My appologies on the 1 year behind it appears that ARU are scheduled for production by 2013..

Very impressive actually seeing the explosion in Rare Earth prices for both companies bundles.. with LYC at $35US a kg on the 16th and with ARU hitting $43US a Kg today.. That is some serious profit for LYC and possible profit for ARU in the future..

I wonder if the price rises are just the start of the increase or overpriced will be interesting to find out..

 

[vincent191]

I wonder if the price rises are just the start of the increase or overpriced will be interesting to find out..

According to the textbook if demand > supply prices will go up. All the articles I have read suggest that in the short to medium term (1 to 2 years) demand will outstrip supply so a price increase is expected or in the very least stay at current levels.

 

[AngusSmart]

LYC ARU & ALK are all doing quiet well dew to this increase in demand and the rise in prices.. this i find strange since none of these companies actually produce! but its still doing ok by be for some quick day trading.

looking forward to tomorrow.

LYC also comes up alot on the sky business show your money your call. quiet interesting to hear what the guests have to say about it. skys the limit i've herd a few times!