LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[noie]

Today we saw a fair drop for LYC by 6.21% on high volume on a bad day for most companies and is still inside the (grey trendlines) and I doubled my holdings at .83 cents as the chart shows.
Im a little confused with the late trade after market close(I think correct me if im wrong).
Why would anyone put such large orders @.5.5 cents above market?,its not like its a small amount like $5000 its more like $274088.04
Anyone with any logic can you please explain it to me.
DYOR

May i ask what is that app that breaks down the depth and sector like that?

Not answering your question sorry..(well not very well)
after 1700 is the Adjust period, and trading cant take place here

from the ASX website
Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.
Trading during the Adjust phase is referred to as overnight trading.

Maybe its a type of OTC trade or broker cross? it is a long way off the close price tho

 

[Huitzii]

I use Macquarie Edge if you do enough trades it will also give their individual company assesments,it works for me ,but its not the cheapest for trade @ $18.95 per trade but it does give me the security of a chess sponsored account though.

 

[maungatapu]

Huitzii
Actually 967,786 shares were traded between 4-18 and 4-59 @ 88.5 They had the letters SXXT after them which I think stand for "special sale portfolio" (SX) and
"crossed trades" (XT) One investor offloads to another investor using the same broker. Would suspect a fund wants to do trades in secret then report to the market.

 

[Huitzii]

From ASX website:
Notes:
*For Crossed Trade reports, 'XT' will be appended to the ITS condition codes. For example, the condition code for Portfolio Special Crossing is SXXT, whilst the condition code for a crossed Late Trade is LTXT.

Does this mean that there will be an substantial holder announcement for almost 1 million traded as "Portfolio Special Crossing"?
Not that its relevant to me, im more curious than anything.

 

[nioka]

From ASX website:
Notes:
*For Crossed Trade reports, 'XT' will be appended to the ITS condition codes. For example, the condition code for Portfolio Special Crossing is SXXT, whilst the condition code for a crossed Late Trade is LTXT.

Does this mean that there will be an substantial holder announcement for almost 1 million traded as "Portfolio Special Crossing"?
Not that its relevant to me, im more curious than anything.

A portfolio special crossing is usually a transfer from one account to another account without an actual change of real ownership; eg from a trading account to a super fund. These have to be done at a market price for taxation reasons.

 

[Huitzii]

A portfolio special crossing is usually a transfer from one account to another account without an actual change of real ownership; eg from a trading account to a super fund. These have to be done at a market price for taxation reasons.

Hi Nioka if that is the case (and im not disputing what you are saying) why was the trade done @ 5.5 cents above market.....im confused
Do you think it could have been automated system and put into several parcels and a wrong buy/sell price entered?

 

[vincent191]

Huitzii, on my opinion for portfolio special crossing the shares can change hands at any old price because the fundamental ownership did not change, it is like you selling the shares to yourself, so what does it matter?

Of course this is my own simple way of thinking there is of course a tax issue to be considered.

Today I am looking at accumulating a bit more LYC, the market is weak this weak but the fundamentals of LYC had not changed. Agree??

 

[Huitzii]

Huitzii, on my opinion for portfolio special crossing the shares can change hands at any old price because the fundamental ownership did not change, it is like you selling the shares to yourself, so what does it matter?

Of course this is my own simple way of thinking there is of course a tax issue to be considered.

Today I am looking at accumulating a bit more LYC, the market is weak this weak but the fundamentals of LYC had not changed. Agree??

The issue with that trade is it can change the market without the 1m shares changing hands only changing accounts held by the same person, is that legal?

yeah I see yesterdays drop as an opportunity so I doubled my holding yesterday at .83

 

[nioka]

Hi Nioka if that is the case (and im not disputing what you are saying) why was the trade done @ 5.5 cents above market.....im confused
Do you think it could have been automated system and put into several parcels and a wrong buy/sell price entered?

Usually there are taxation reasons behind these transfers. I have done this sort of transfer myself in the past by transfering shares to family members. These transfers are often scrutinised by the tax office for transfers at unreasonable value so they may be a few cents either way of the latest market price but they will be within cooee of recent values. It is best to just ignore them. I doubt they are made to set or influence a market price.

 

[nioka]

BEIJING(Metal-Pages)11-Aug-10. Five provinces in southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hunan yesterday officially started to jointly supervise rare earth mining in local areas, industry sources reported. The joint initiative is aimed at regulating rare earth exploitation and the operation of the domestic market, and at encouraging a healthier industry.

The five provinces are the leading suppliers for ion-absorbion rare earth concentrates in China, with their reserve and output accounting for about 90% of the China's total rare earth reserves and output of concentrates.

Rare earth resources in southern China have been seriously wasted in recent years due to primitive mining technology, and the local environment has also suffered severe damage.

Several government departments have taken many measures over the past years to crack down on illegal mining and regulate the mining system. However, illegal mining of rare earth resources has proliferated in southern China, due to the lure of high profits. This has prompted 15 cities within the five provinces to take joint action to supervise exploitation of rare earth resources in thier respective areas.

The 15 city authorities signed an agreement on the joint supervision on Aug 10. According to the agreement, they will negotiate on rare earth mining in the future to improve oprations and to ensure that resources are mined strictly in line with extraction quotas allocated by the relevant state departments. They will also try to set up a unified market for rare earth concentrates.

The cities will team up with each other to crack down on illegal mining and gang up in the fight against illegal mining concentrates coming into the market. The agreement also says that the 15 cities will set up a union for rare earth mining enterprises in the future and will improve cooperation on technology.

http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/48515/

 

[vincent191]

LYC gives a running report on the basket price of RE on it's website. Many look at the basket price and assume LYC's sp should react accordingly.

But is this a realistic expectation? The basket contains (lets say 10) elements. Any increase in the basket price may not be due to an even increase in all 10 elements. Some would have gone up more than others and some might have even fallen.

We need to know what is in LYC's basket. If LYC's basket contains more of the elements that are in short supply then LYC's sp should outperform the increase in the overall basket price. The reverse is true.

Has anyone done any research in LYC's basket? Does LYC's basket contain a lot of those elements that are in short supply?

Not all RE elements are created equal, some are more valuable than others. I need to go research what is in LYC's basket.

 

[nioka]

LYC gives a running report on the basket price of RE on it's website. Many look at the basket price and assume LYC's sp should react accordingly.

But is this a realistic expectation? The basket contains (lets say 10) elements. Any increase in the basket price may not be due to an even increase in all 10 elements. Some would have gone up more than others and some might have even fallen.

We need to know what is in LYC's basket. If LYC's basket contains more of the elements that are in short supply then LYC's sp should outperform the increase in the overall basket price. The reverse is true.

Has anyone done any research in LYC's basket? Does LYC's basket contain a lot of those elements that are in short supply?

Not all RE elements are created equal, some are more valuable than others. I need to go research what is in LYC's basket.

As far as I know the basket price takes into account the amount of each of the elements is available for LYC to extract, hence the name "basket" price. It is what is included in LYC's basket.Somewhere in the past there has been a list of the elements that LYC expects to produce. With a quick search I cant find it but if I do I will publish it again.

 

[vincent191]

nioka, yeah I will have a look during the weekend as well to see whether the basket price posted on LYC's site is a generic basket put out by some mining research group or it is specific to LYC's basket. You could be right, I am not sure.

 

[derty]

Here is a quick screen grab of the Lynas basket with the REE breakdown by percentage (prices are $US/kg):

 

[Huitzii]

What a well timed 48 hours ive had, it went like this.
When AUT held yesterday and LYC had a fall to .83 cents, I sold all my AUT for .96 cents and doubled my LYC at .83 cents.
before open today I put an order for a sell of LYC for .89 cents for the same amount of dollars that it cost me to double up and leaving profits in LYC and rebought AUT today at the same price that it was sold at the day before being .96 cents and rode AUT to its high of $1.06.
To top it off I hold EKA aswell and saw that rise to .32 cents and I did take full advantage of the 6 for 1 @ .17 cents SPP over a week ago which will show up next wednesday in my account.
The ride was great today

 

[vincent191]

What a well timed 48 hours ive had, it went like this.
When AUT held yesterday and LYC had a fall to .83 cents, I sold all my AUT for .96 cents and doubled my LYC at .83 cents.
before open today I put an order for a sell of LYC for .89 cents for the same amount of dollars that it cost me to double up and leaving profits in LYC and rebought AUT today at the same price that it was sold at the day before being .96 cents and rode AUT to its high of $1.06.
To top it off I hold EKA aswell and saw that rise to .32 cents and I did take full advantage of the 6 for 1 @ .17 cents SPP over a week ago which will show up next wednesday in my account.
The ride was great today

Well done. I thought about selling LYC at .91 and buy back should it drop but decided against it. Missed making a few dollars but no regrets LYC pushing 90 cents again. I will get a second chance next week. What to do??

 

[vincent191]

derty, great stuff!!! saved me hours of work. Now to understand what it all means. Am I correct to say the top 3 elements went up the most and LYC's basket has a lot of those (90.7%)? Gee if I read this correctly what is there not to like.

 

[nioka]

Another thing to take into account is the fact that the elements are used in small quantities so the extra costs to users are not a big portion of their production costs which makes little difference to their ability to pay the extra price. The extra value makes a huge difference to Lynas.

 

[derty]

Here is a couple of graphs. One that shows the change in REE Oxide values as compared to 2007 and another that shows the total basket value for each period and the relative value of the each of the REE within the basket.

Other than the gaudy colours what is apparent is that while Lanthanum, Cerium and Samarium have undergone huge increases in value it is the Lanthanum, Cerium and Neodymium within the ore that carry the value of the mine with the remainder comprising a relatively constant value.

 

[vincent191]

Today's paper reports JP Morgan has reviewed LYC target price from 83 cents to $1.30. Wow....LYC is better than sex.