LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[RareEarth]

Re: LYC - Rare Earths are going off

IMO Lyc is the cheapest stock with the biggest upsided in the next 3 months


25/1/2009
jack lifton ...Toyota took a license from ECD in the 1990s and went into a strategic alliance with Matsu****a (Panasonic) to develop and mass produce nickel-metal hydride batteries in Japan for its own use. ECD’s most profitable patent was a process patent, which gave ECD the right to royalties from anyone using nickel-metal hydride batteries for vehicle propulsion. This is commonly misunderstood and many writers claim that ECD has the ‘rights’ to any nickel-metal hydride battery developments by any of its licensees. This is simply not true and in the case of Toyota, for example, the Japanese car maker has now bought out Matsu****a’s share of their joint venture and is constructing a new plant in Japan to make its own much improved version of the nickel-metal hydride battery for the Prius type power train in-house. Toyota plans to triple its production of Prius- power- train- using hybrid vehicles and of nickel-metal hydride batteries built entirely in-house to a total of 1,000,000 vehicles and 1,000,000 batteries per year by 2011. In order to insure that it has sufficient lanthanum for its needs Toyota has been aggressively and quietly stockpiling lanthanum and negotiating off-takes with those non-Chinese REE miners who are closest to startup. I believe that Toyota has off-take agreements with Australia’s Lynas (ASX: LYC)

 

[Miner]

Re: LYC - Rare Earths are going off

IMO Lyc is the cheapest stock with the biggest upsided in the next 3 months


25/1/2009
jack lifton ...Toyota took a license from ECD in the 1990s and went into a strategic alliance with Matsu****a (Panasonic) to develop and mass produce nickel-metal hydride batteries in Japan for its own use. ECD’s most profitable patent was a process patent, which gave ECD the right to royalties from anyone using nickel-metal hydride batteries for vehicle propulsion. This is commonly misunderstood and many writers claim that ECD has the ‘rights’ to any nickel-metal hydride battery developments by any of its licensees. This is simply not true and in the case of Toyota, for example, the Japanese car maker has now bought out Matsu****a’s share of their joint venture and is constructing a new plant in Japan to make its own much improved version of the nickel-metal hydride battery for the Prius type power train in-house. Toyota plans to triple its production of Prius- power- train- using hybrid vehicles and of nickel-metal hydride batteries built entirely in-house to a total of 1,000,000 vehicles and 1,000,000 batteries per year by 2011. In order to insure that it has sufficient lanthanum for its needs Toyota has been aggressively and quietly stockpiling lanthanum and negotiating off-takes with those non-Chinese REE miners who are closest to startup. I believe that Toyota has off-take agreements with Australia’s Lynas (ASX: LYC)

Rare Earth

You may be right but with Toyota production reduced, industrial production in most of the commodities reduced implying the consumption of spares of energy efficienty bulbs will reduced, implying consumption of rare earth will be reduced how LYC will be still a cheap stock

With additional equity raising plan the earnings per share will be further diluted

My opinion any way

Cheers

 

[Goldmann]

anyone interpret whether this announcement will hurt LYC more than it is already? was it expected, or is it a further draw down of cash???

 

[Miner]

anyone interpret whether this announcement will hurt LYC more than it is already? was it expected, or is it a further draw down of cash???

Goldmann et al

YOu might have read in ASX already that the company has postponed the project . (see attachement)

It is rather strange that one hand they had equity placement as a stand by, pay back time only 12 months or so, two years order booked already, high market demand with Chinese curtailment of export - STILL the project is not going ahead due to market sentiment

I was talking one of LYC senior executive only ten days back and he painted a brilliant picture of the company's future, $55 cash (now ASX report suggests they will spend the cash prudently . Getting better deal in Las Vegas than buying its own stocks )

What will happen to those solid buy back arrangement of production for next two years

Or was it very loosely agreed contract with an easy exit from either side excepting the people who invested on Rare Earths - what an irony of the outcome.

Could some one please update with a better view and glorious signs as I am be reading too much to understand the postponement of this project.

 

[Miner]

My Good ness
LYC opened 12 cents, went to 10 cents and just recovered to 19 cents or so now

Who were teh lucky (?) ones to buy at 10 cents and then probably sold at 19 cents

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
LYC 0.195 -26.42% 0.190 0.195 0.120 0.195 0.100 6,851,518

PS : I do not hold

 

[Aka]

directors will find the way thru bond problems or will arrange fanding very soon. The cost of funds already invested is much more then what they need to finish it. Share have only one way to go now out temporary limbo...I am buying

 

[Miner]

directors will find the way thru bond problems or will arrange fanding very soon. The cost of funds already invested is much more then what they need to finish it. Share have only one way to go now out temporary limbo...I am buying

Dear AKA

Welcome to the forum considering you only came in Nob 08 and posted twice

Could you please throw some lights to share your thoughts on behind buying LYC and is it for short/ med or long term or just for trading ?

There is a very high volume of trading suggesting some big players are changing hands. Notwithstandding some update will be appreciated

 

[jman2007]

I haven't researched this company very much

From a project perspectve the Mt Weld REE deposit is very interesting however, and this deposit is the world-wide benchmark for all aspiring REE developments. Just off the top of my head it probably contains around 17% of the world-wde inventory of REE's, perhaps enough for a 25-30 year mine life?

The carbonatite intrusion (the big round blob on their geology maps) was probably the source for all these exotic elements, but a mafic intrusion which cuts through the carbonatite acted like a giant filter, and concentrated all the goodies from the carbonanite in it.

Perhaps half the battle with getting these types of projects going is being able to successfully market your product to the end users. I'm not sure what kind of shape they're in financially, but there has been a lot of construction and pre-stripping going on down there, and I like the project because it's a bit different

jman

 

[Aka]

i hope we do not judge here people by howm many tmes they posted and since when.

In the nutshell:

1. Look at options issue during the QTR (some kind of indication)
2. cash backing approx $.1 per share
3. enogh cash to last for sometime until they find/resolve funding
4. they own something really worthy , in the time to come (these elements could only be found if some parts of the world)

I look at at it as 3-6 month

happy to share sometime my thoughts with fellow shareholders.

 

[spankme]

I thought LYC was trying to get more funding $$$$$$$.

Has this happened? I read something about getting $$$$ from Malasia? I am new to this stock and thing about buying in!

What are everyones thoughts?

Thanks

 

[Goldmann]

interesting article in todays australian...

----

CHINA has triumphed in a 15-year quest to become the "ultimate monopolist" in the supply of rare earth metals - a dominance that industry experts say could give Beijing control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.

Industry sources believe that with China dramatically cutting its annual rare earth export quotas, the time may be rapidly approaching when it will be impossible for any company to produce a wind turbine or hybrid electric car outside the communist country.

After a long, relentless campaign of price wars and export quota reductions, more than 95 per cent of the global supply of rare earth metals - a group of 17 "lanthanide" elements employed in hundreds of technologies ranging from mobile phones and BlackBerrys to lasers and aviation - is produced by China.

Although China has the resources and refinery capacity to produce enough lanthanum, terbium, neodymium and dysprosium to satisfy a global demand that is rising at 10 per year, its rare earth export allocation for the whole world this year is expected to be about 38,000 tonnes - less than the quantity required by Japan alone.

Furthermore, as the world tries to make itself more energy-efficient, China's dominant position will become more strategically critical because of the wide range of cutting-edge environmental technologies, such as wind turbines, low-energy light bulbs and hybrid cars, that depend heavily on the rare earth metals.

Jack Lifton, an expert on rare earths, said: "Deng Xiaoping's comment in 1997, where he said that China would be for rare earth metals what the Middle East was to oil, has become a very stark reality. The world has to wake up and start thinking of this group of elements as the 'technology metals' without which there will be no technology. China is already working out how these metals are going to give its companies a competitiveness that the rest of the world will find very difficult to match."

China's rising strength in rare earth supply and its apparent willingness to use that as "a 21st-century economic weapon" have triggered what government sources in Tokyo told The Times was an invisible tsunami of panic in Japanese industry, which in turn has called on the Government to fight its corner with Beijing. Japan, which imports nearly 100 per cent of its rare earths from China, sees the group of elements as a probable battleground for future trade wars.

Toyota and other big carmakers are hurrying to secure alternative supplies in Vietnam and Malaysia. Mines in the United States that were forced out of business by price wars may be brought back into use. Yet many industry observers believe that Beijing may engineer a global supply crunch before any serious rival sources become available.

China's strategy, said Yoichi Sato, head of the rare earth division of Mitsui, suggested a complex game being played between Beijing and the world's rare earth consumers. The perceived idea behind China restricting its rare earth exports is twofold. First, it gives its own high-tech industries a chance to flourish and gain a huge competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the US - a politically useful gambit by a Government whose legitimacy lies in the provision of jobs and economic growth. Second, it may force foreign companies to move their high-tech factories and research centres to China to circumvent quotas, a move that Japanese companies will resist for fear of losing industrial secrets.

Mr Sato also believes that China will seek to use its existing monopoly status to crush any competition that emerges. Although about 42 per cent of worldwide reserves of rare earth ores lie outside China, very few places have significant refinery capacity.

Mr Sato said: "Of course many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business."

Prospects of developing the industry outside China have been hit by a sudden decision by investors in Lynas, the Australian group, to pull funding for a project under which a big refinery would have been built in Malaysia for operation by the end of this year. A company source said that the project, which would have given companies such as Toyota and Honda a welcome diversity of supply, is unlikely now to open as scheduled.

Moreover, China's push to remain the globally dominant player appears to have intensified. Within the past fortnight, a Chinese investment company has acquired 25 per cent of Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earth miner, and last month China Minmetals Rare Earth Company laid out plans to invest dollars 300million (pounds 212million) to cement its position as the globally dominant corporate force in the field.

 

[Miner]

interesting article in todays australian...

----

CHINA has triumphed in a 15-year quest to become the "ultimate monopolist" in the supply of rare earth metals - a dominance that industry experts say could give Beijing control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.


Moreover, China's push to remain the globally dominant player appears to have intensified. Within the past fortnight, a Chinese investment company has acquired 25 per cent of Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earth miner, and last month China Minmetals Rare Earth Company laid out plans to invest dollars 300million (pounds 212million) to cement its position as the globally dominant corporate force in the field.

Very well said Goldman

It was an Ode on the Death of Our Supremacy and Intelligence against Chinese Brain

We see but do not watch

We taught CHinese how to make money and happy with our tuition fee. Chinese learnt and applied on us taking multiple returns of our earned value

Our legal advisers work for them against our children so that Chinese and ohter nations can exploit us. They are happy with their fees.

All short term gains for long term pains

Our universities are filled up with Asians and we are happy to get them filled where as our children merely graduate after year 10 to know nothing about business and surrender to either back pain, work related injury or sucked by foreign invasion in SHE WILL BE RIGHT MATE environment.

Our business gurus at Rio decline to accept BHPB offer and then get sucked by Chinalco

LYC is similar story : With such a strong position they closed the projects and then we will get our cars. mobiles, I pods made in Chinese and we will afford to pay them but not to revive our own factories

Our workers and unions prefer (Harvey Beef, Pacific) to close shops and factories letting our business goes to Chian than accepting lower wages when we need to do so.

We do not want to study but prefer to import immigrants as ready made solutions from South Africa, UK, India, Singapore, Middle East. High supply loose jobs then the migrants stay back, apply for PR and Citizenship, drive taxis when they loose jobs whereas we go for fishing or busking and exploit our sickie system . God Loves our own country

Very sad irony and we all are sufferers

 

[fmoraes]

I've noticed that the stock price is moving again. Does anyone know what is going on? Any word on new financing?

Francisco

 

[gamefisherman]

Does anyone have any idea why the volumes are so large at present with lyc?

Is is worth getting out now, my partner owns some, and take a loss, or is it worth holding onto for the long term?

price bought .325??

does anyone know if these guys are doing anything at the moment?

Thanx

 

[The Muffin Man]

gamefisherman, here is a link to one of the more recent updates;

http://www.lynascorp.com/content/up..._Suspension_of_Project_170209_final695622.pdf

More can be found on LYC's ASX page and website. Works on the Mt Weld project have currently been suspended due to financing difficulties. A possible time frame given with relation to re-financing in the announcement about was 6-12 months. The announcement was made mid-Feb. Going by that time line, it would be pretty optimistic to attribute the current share price rise to possibly securing financing, but who knows?

I've only just come across this company and have to admit I'm a little interested. I've had a quick read through the thread, and it seems that, as with a lot of miners currently, financing will be the issue. I might sit tight and keep watch on this one, see how it travels in the next few months. Anyone else with thoughts to add?

 

[nioka]

Lynas have gone into a trading halt at the request of the company,pending an announcement. The announcement will be in regard to financing arrangements.With the SP falling to lows around 12c recently LYC offered an excellent opportunity for bargain hunters. Buys at that price are allready showing a 120% return proving that there is still money to be made in this market even with the GFC.
Lynas were never in serious problems as I saw the situation because the management acted early and halted spending to maintain a positive cash balance.
The market for their product has probably improved with increased world usage and limited supply outside China.
In earlier posts I stated that I was sellingand intended to reenter closer to the start of production in Malaysia. I have reentered while the bargain prices were on offer and intend to hold long term at this stage.

 

[The Muffin Man]

I will be watching closely for the release of the announcement too. This could get interesting, as financing seems to be the major hurdle the company has to clear before share price appreciation.

 

[nioka]

Watch for LYS to come out of its trading halt. It is still trading in the USA and yesterday it closed 52% higher. At one stage being up 72%. Good news for refinancing must be on the way.

 

[The Muffin Man]

I would suggest those interested in this company read the announcement that has come out today regarding Chinese investment in the company. This is massive news, and ensures that this company will most certainly become a producer.

 

[nioka]

The future of Lynas is now secure but at a very high cost. To sell a 52% controlling interest to the chinese in order to obtain the funding is akin to selling the farm.
I should not complain as the financial reward from LYC has been exceptional but I am disappointed that another Australian company has had to sell itself to overseas interests in order to survive. I'm disappointed that the current shareholders were not given an opportunity of investing further in the company via an SPP earlier on for the financing of the project.
I'm disappointed even though my original investment returned 300% and at today's price my current investment is showing 176% return. What disappoints me even more is that I am having trouble finding a good aussie company to use as an investment avenue.