LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[purple]

been a real sliding down for LYC from all the sub prime crap going on in the US.

Grace, I doubt if LYC will be a takeover target. my take is that companies usually takeover others with a similar industry eg. BHP taking over RIO for their iron/other metals etc.

for the moment there is no other large Rare Earths producer that is cash rich that would want to swipe up a smaller near-term producer. I wouldn't expect the chinese producers to come looking (even though the Chinese are getting more aggressive and the chinese gov just took a $5bil stake in Morgan stanley).

however, the sword cuts both ways. LYC in being an imminent producer has already proven that it has a clear future onwards in having its order books full - at the moment all its future 1st production has been bought up and other customers are queing up.

that has caused LYC to even go buying other rare earth mines in Africa, which I wouldn't have if I were the CEO as I'd want a positive cash flow first.
nevertheless, LYC seems positive on the purchase and probably has plans to have a tight control on the worl'ds RE production.

I'm still in with my portfolio geared heavily on LYC (yup, through all the bad fall). the sp right now is not pretty, I know..

here's hoping that the US data coming out has begun to reassure investors. been a bit more uplifting news on Bloomberg today after all the doom and gloom the past 4 months.

 

[ozrob]

3 January 2008
INCREASE OF CHINESE GOVERNMENT’S EXPORT TARIFF ON RARE EARTHS
Key Points:
• Chinese export tariffs on Rare Earths increased to between 15% and 25%
• The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution
The Chinese Government authorities announced increases of the export tariff on Rare Earths effective 1 January 2008. The export tariff, which was originally introduced 14 months ago at 10% for all Rare Earths, has been increased as follows:
Europium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Yttrium as oxides carbonates, or chlorides 25%
All other Rare Earth oxides, carbonates, and chlorides 15%
Neodymium as metal 15%
All other Rare Earths metals 25%
The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution.
Lynas Corporation (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) believes the increase of the export tariff highlights the shortage of Rare Earths and confirms the policy of the Chinese Government to protect the increasingly tight supply of Rare Earths in China. China is essentially the only current global source for these strategic elements until Lynas’ Mount Weld project comes on stream in 2009.
“With Lynas’ non China assets the company will benefit from these structural changes through the increase in the international price for these essential elements as well as continued international concern of security of Chinese supply” commented Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis.

The above announcement was made today.
Good news for LYC when it starts producing, demand is going up, price is going up and supply is limited.

 

[ta2693]

The above announcement was made today.
Good news for LYC when it starts producing, demand is going up, price is going up and supply is limited.

China is aiming for controlling the price of RE. China has the ability to do so. (80% deposit, 90% export). The RE producing and export policy will be more tighten in the future.

 

[grace]

Looks like the increase in export taxes on REO from China has brought on some buying interest. Up 7% today with over 7million volume. Looks to be starting a nice uptrend now. Would post a chart but have forgotten how....

 

[kpgduras]

Hi Grace

This one came up in a scan tonight. I have attached a Metastock chart based on candle volume.

Regards
kpgduras

 

[fmoraes]

Is all the recent SP moves still because of the China announcement or is there any other more recent news?

I'd expect we will see some bigger moves this year as we get close to manufacturing plant opening.

 

[2laidbak]

what's up with this thing? i mean i'm sort of glad, cuz' i got out at 1.25, i've held for over a year, getting in at .52, and just decided for some weird reason to exit- and 3 days later it's way way down. wow, that's lucky and scary. someone please tell me what's going on, i'd like to get back in, but the way it looks today, it almost looks like they folded. thanks for any help, thomas

 

[Hephaestus]

Don't be silly, noone is folding. Lynas is expecting approval of its site licence for Malaysia plant sometime this month, hence the buying up. Their debt facility is good, and they have a great resource. Admittedly I did sell the day before yesterday at $1.115 as I saw the drop coming that day, but have bought back in at lower price.

 

[2laidbak]

thanks, hephthalmeus, i needed some reassurance, as i did buy back in today. i'm affixated to this stock.

 

[boehchris]

Don't be silly, noone is folding. Lynas is expecting approval of its site licence for Malaysia plant sometime this month, hence the buying up. Their debt facility is good, and they have a great resource. Admittedly I did sell the day before yesterday at $1.115 as I saw the drop coming that day, but have bought back in at lower price.

With "this month" do you mean January or maybe February.

Thanks for the information

boehchris

P.S.What kind of crazy rule is this, that the message has to be more than xy words?

 

[2laidbak]

when merrill lynch ceases to be a substatial holder- why does the price spike? i only see this with aussie stocks and this is the only asx stock i own, so if anyone could help, it would greatly be appreciated. thanks, thomas

 

[refined silver]

when merrill lynch ceases to be a substatial holder- why does the price spike? i only see this with aussie stocks and this is the only asx stock i own, so if anyone could help, it would greatly be appreciated. thanks, thomas

Merryl Lynch just had huge writedowns, ($10b?, $16b?, I forget)and will probably have more to add as most companies are still markeing derivatives to model not to market. (In other words marking to what their model says they are worth, rather than what they could get in the market for them - thats why all banks have scared to stiff to let CDOs, SIVs CDSs etc be sold cos then they'd all have to mark to market and the losses would really hit the fan.) Anyway I digress sort of... Obviously Merryl are having to sell lots of stuff to raise liquidity as they are close to insolvent. Once selling pressure is over, voila, price spike

A second more dubious reason is that many brokerages manipulate stock prices for their own benefit eg short selling stock to keep prices depressed to then participate in equity offerings at greatly reduced rates etc.

I also like and own LYC for the LT

 

[fmoraes]

Yahoo listed an interim earnings release on Feb 20 but I haven't seen any details on it. Does anyone know anything about it?

The Malaysia approval is certainly welcome.

 

[fmoraes]

Yahoo listed an interim earnings release on Feb 20 but I haven't seen any details on it. Does anyone know anything about it?

The Malaysia approval is certainly welcome.

From what I can find, the only thing that happened on that day was the release of the Malaysia approval.

 

[Hephaestus]

Malyasia approval a month behind schedule. With the sudden rush to $1.45 again, I feel a short term pullback to $1.25 - 1.30 is justified with large profits in the wing. Be patient and see rewards within 12 - 18 months.

 

[mauib]

Dines Recommendation

I read on another board that Dines had recommended this stock. I dont subscribe to Dines but does anyone have info on this recommendation? I am very long LYC.

 

[Sanhedrin]

Thats correct Mauib just received my TDL and Jim has recommended the stock at $1.50 he also has ARU for the ROE and Uranium potential.

 

[Kieran]

Well I got out of this bastard a few days ago at $1.53 (bought for $1.52). Yes it went up to ~$1.60 but now it's down to $1.23. I sold because the cash I had in LYC is working better for me in a mortage offset account at ~9.5%

 

[jeppe565]

Does anybody knows why Lynas is down 15% today? I couldn't find any negative news anywhere....just this notice "New Listing [(ASX: LYC.ax) ] Change in substantial holding".

 

[nioka]

Does anybody knows why Lynas is down 15% today? I couldn't find any negative news anywhere....just this notice "New Listing [(ASX: LYC.ax) ] Change in substantial holding".

I exited LYC some time ago (refer my earlier post) because I believe it will basically trade sideways and fluctuate with the market for minerals. I will probably get back in when production in Malaysia gets closer to starting. I have had no adverse news other than the delays as outlined in company reports.