LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[Trader52]

LYC looks good for the long term. Once they get the plant up and running and the cash flow starts the SP should tick up. This may take awhile and until then will vary with the market. Rare Earths are a solid commodity for the future, so I will stay the distance.

Disclosure - I hold LYC.

 

[Hephaestus]

Ah, what the hell just happened to the LYC share price?
Down 14% for no apparent reason.
Has there been a reduction in value of the rare earths?

 

[nioka]

Ah, what the hell just happened to the LYC share price?
Down 14% for no apparent reason.
Has there been a reduction in value of the rare earths?

My information is that actual mining has stopped but there are large stockpiles of ore. They are about to start building the concentration plant at the mine as planned. The refining is still going to be done in Malaysia. My contact says he knows no reason why the SP should have dropped as it has.

I sold out some time ago as I couldn't see much change until they were closer to production. This has taken longer than first planned so I guess there are some losing patience. There was volume in the selling today so the fall was most likely caused by an institution dumping. I will watch and may reenter while the price is down.

 

[Hephaestus]

This is slightly old news, but interesting nevertheless:

The Age.com.au

Poor governance performers on rise

Ruth Williams
June 26, 2008

A NEW survey has recorded a rise in big listed companies performing poorly on corporate governance issues, with Premier Investments, Prime Television and a slew of mining stocks among those marked down.

Ten companies in the ASX 250 were given the lowest rating of one star in the latest WHK Horwath Corporate Governance Report, up from six last year and four the year before. Five of those ranked lowest were resource companies, and the others included Diversified United Investment, Lynas Corporation and Reece Australia.

 

[storchyman]

This might be a silly question,
but what exacly is rare earths and what is it used for?

thanx in advance, storch

 

[danielfields]

what do you think? Is the future below 1.00? Or will go back to 1.40+? Any recent news or info you have seen on the recent plummet in SP?

 

[Goldmann]

on its way back i would think. everything has been hammered in the last two weeks.. another good day on the ASX tomorrow and should head towards 1.30 again...

I dont hold - but would like to have some in my portfolio.. been following for a while... good long term play...

rare earths go into microchips, the batteries in Hybrid cars along with loads of other stuff...

China is the biggest player, and they are now reducing exports of the stuff due to "not wanted to lose their strategic advantage".. all good news for LYC...

 

[danielfields]

Thanks, Goldmann! Looks like you were right, and even though the reasons are the same as they have been in the past ;-) looks like we're seeing it.
Cheers

 

[Goldmann]

been a tough few weeks for LYC.

I finally jumped in at .86.

looks like i should of held off for a nother little while.

anyone have any news on this one??? thinking of doubling up, but its a risk game in this market. what used to look like a floor is now tumbling.

 

[nioka]

been a tough few weeks for LYC.

I finally jumped in at .86.

looks like i should of held off for a nother little while.

anyone have any news on this one??? thinking of doubling up, but its a risk game in this market. what used to look like a floor is now tumbling.

I'm sitting on the profit I made on this one earlier. As per my earlier post I will reenter when they are near production, which I believe is a little way off yet. Until then I see very little change. Shifting the production plant to Malaysia may be a good long term proposition but it certainly did nothing for the short term value of LYC. It has been tough for all the miners and LYC is no exception.

 

[matt1987]

any ideas of when this will bottom out from a charting perspective. fundamentally looks like it has a good future, but the price really has come crashing down of late. i was thinking about getting in at 1.00 a while ago ..... lucky i didnt.

 

[ta2693]

i am surprised to see lyc fall below $1
however, SGX and LYC have the same management team. I feel LYC is going to slide further as long as sgx falls as people may doubt lyc's management team.

 

[Hephaestus]

Can you explain what the issues with SGX management are currently?
I do understand the sudden drop in LYC and would of course like to buy more in a market where demand in rare earths will certainly rise (had >100 flourescent bulbs installed last night in the house).

What's the movement on rare earth metal prices at the moment, I can't find a live link to them.
Cheers.

 

[DionM]

Well at these prices I decided to have a nibble at LYC at 0.365 / share.

Their product sounds like it will be in demand, and it looks promising. The concept of processing in Malaysia is interesting, but I guess if China is the main producer I guess it helps to be a little more geographically nearer to there than in WA!

I also like the fact that they have been able to perform several capital raising at increasingly higher prices - rather than decreasing prices! Obviously there was confidence in the business back then, and I think all that has changed since then is the financial meltdown ... but these guys appear to have finances in order and a good order book, and cash on hand.

 

[Lachlan6]

Any move higher from here should just be a corrective bounce and nothing to get too excited about. I would expect a choppy wave (4) or triangle to form however there is still no evidence the wave (3) is complete. The giveaway that not all was right was the break through strong support at around $0.85.

 

[Miner]

This might be a silly question,
but what exacly is rare earths and what is it used for?

thanx in advance, storch

Hi Storchyman

In case you still awaiting for an answer to your question posted in July 08 (sorry but for the first time accidentally I visited LYC forum while getting bored after a hectic 4 weeks overseas business cum holiday trip).

Rare earths are the materials used in energy efficient bulbs, hybrid cars, batteries etc. Best will be visit Google and type rare earths to get inundated answers or visit LYC website .

 

[Goldmann]

great day for LYC, up 16% on the day...

does this have something to do with the news from today (relating to one of the bigger holders that were selling are nearing the end of their holding) - or yesterdays news - relating to the new customer off take agreement.

need this one to sustain some upward momentum!

 

[Miner]

The upward movement from LYC is in fact astonishing. Definitely they have all the good news but the end users (car manufacturers) are constantly shedding production, closing plants so the product from LYC and similar organisations need to search market.

Under such circumstances LYC share increase hopefully not a bounce of a dead cat.

Disclaimer : I do not hold LYC

 

[Lachlan6]

Following on from my post on the 10th of November when i suggested LYC should trace out a congestion pattern probably a triangle, it seems this may now be in the form of a Running Flat pattern. I have counted the stock in the wave (4) position and having completed the waves a and b making it currently in the final wave c. There should be significant resistance between 50 - 60c being the top of this running flat and also that gap from Oct last year. This should precede a last fall into the wave (5) to complete the big move down from March last year.

The other scenario is that five waves are complete and a signifant bounce is upon us, but I have relegated this to be the less likely scenario at this stage.

 

[Goldmann]

The upward movement from LYC is in fact astonishing. Definitely they have all the good news but the end users (car manufacturers) are constantly shedding production, closing plants so the product from LYC and similar organisations need to search market.

Under such circumstances LYC share increase hopefully not a bounce of a dead cat.

Disclaimer : I do not hold LYC

yeah see the car manufacturing thing i see as a bonus for LYC.. considering at Detroit motor show, most majors released plans for their new hybrid cars - that would increase demand for Rare earths!!!