LNC - Linc Energy

[Calliope]

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1943603/ This could spook a few people and see the share price falling (alot) tomorrow.

Now waiting for Linc to confirm or deny. I was puzzled on Monday when they announced that they had flogged off 5.86 million shares a the bargain basement price of 2,90. Why did they need this cash if they had the China deal sewn up?

 

[Ruincity]

Now waiting for Linc to confirm or deny. I was puzzled on Monday when they announced that they had flogged off 5.86 million shares a the bargain basement price of 2,90. Why did they need this cash if they had the China deal sewn up?

Announcement out:

XINWEN RECONFIRMS PROGRESS ON PURCHASE OF EMERALD “TERESA” COAL TENEMENTS
Following meetings this week with the Xinwen Mining Group Ltd of China (“Xinwen”) in Beijing, Linc Energy (ASX : LNC) confirms that the Xinwen Board has approved the purchase of Linc Energy’s Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements. This approval follows successful completion of the due diligence process.
Further, the companies have agreed to an extension of the Heads of Agreement prior to the completion of AU$1.5 billion transaction whilst Xinwen obtain Chinese regulatory approval to enter into the formal contract.
Linc Energy also confirms that throughout the due diligence period and during this extension period, the Company’s drilling program on the Emerald “Teresa” tenements is continuing so as to further define and expand the coal deposit. (Please refer to the attached photographs of drilling activities at Emerald)
For further information about the sale of the Emerald “Teresa” coal tenements, please contact Peter Bond.

 

[joestjack]

Every time I buy in they go down so I will let you know if I am going to get any more. All I know is they were at 2.86 and up to 5.30 suppose hold on for long term.
No one knows were this will end the Economist from CBA tells us we won't have a recession which is right because we are already in one.

I've got a similar problem - everytime I sell they go up.

Glen48, let's team up and between the two of us we can manipulate the market to our own advantage...

hahahahahhahaha....

 

[Goldmann]

LNC Say: "Further, the companies have agreed to an extension of the Heads of Agreement prior to the completion of AU$1.5 billion transaction whilst Xinwen obtain Chinese regulatory approval to enter into the formal contract."

Xinwen say: "A senior official from China's Xinwen Mining has denied a report that the deal between the company and Linc Energy, an Australian coal liquefaction company, on buying mining right will be wrapped up within this year as claimed by a senior official of Linc Energy."

This concerns me... Chinese regulatory approval??? A heads of agreement means nothing... just means they will continue talking... Could this be the first Bond error... that LINC announcement actually says nothing if you read it correctly... it was a release aimed at keeping the price at a decent level...starting to get worried now...

 

[Glen48]

They have cost me a few K chasing them around, I see ORG Origin gets a good wrap i will put a few $$ on them so if you have shares sell now before I buy and send them down some more.
Maybe we should buy into Pram factories and cash in on the single Mothers when their loot comes through.
All down more Friday????

 

[joestjack]

Can't believe the All Ords down another 7%. How many of these drops can the market take?

All the share price gain from the liquids production announcement is completely undone now.

Yeah, the announcement today told us nothing. I'm worried why they didn't specify how long the heads of agreement has been extended to.

 

[ColB]

"A Company????? has announced plans......." What company would be building a diesel plant between Chinchilla & Miles??

Big diesel plant earmarked for southern Qld

Thursday, 16 October, 2008

A company has announced plans to build a major diesel manufacturing facility in southern Queensland.

Construction of the Sunstate project, between Chinchilla and Miles, could begin as early as next year, employing up to 1,000 people.

Mayor Ray Brown says it will produce 17,000 barrels of diesel a day from coal seam methane.

"Its a substantial industry to our region and the first of the value adding type industries," he said.

"Their idea is to utilise that diesel within about a 200 kilometre radius of Miles and I think that's very good news."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/16/2392650.htm

 

[peteai]

Can't believe the All Ords down another 7%. How many of these drops can the market take?

All the share price gain from the liquids production announcement is completely undone now.

Yeah, the announcement today told us nothing. I'm worried why they didn't specify how long the heads of agreement has been extended to.

We are in the capitulation stage - many are selling at any price
FEAR is dominating GREED is hiding in the corner

 

[Goldmann]

"A Company????? has announced plans......." What company would be building a diesel plant between Chinchilla & Miles??

Pacific GTL Ltd
We convert Coal Bed Methane (CBM) to Energy
We develop projects to produce ultra clean diesel from coal seam methane to meet Australia's growing demand for motor transport fuel. Coal bed methane processed through our GTL facilities will optimize the value of the gas.

Methane, in the form of coal bed methane, is an abundant resource in Queensland. It continues to grow as a proven resource and, when converted to automotive diesel, is a cleaner domestic alternative to imported distillate

 

[bloubul]

I've been holding on to LNC for a while and no reason to jump ship now... as long as PB commits to his plans.

Re. Pacific GTL...
had a look at their schedule on their website and no way near starting next year as reported in media.
Engineering and Design -> Start 2010 - Complete Q2 2012
Construction -> Start Q2 2011 - Complete Q1 2014
Commissioning -> Q4 2013 - Complete Q3 2014
Initial Year of Operatation - Q4 2014

My is that once $1.5b is bankable and QLD gov speeds up approval, there will be no stopping LNC starting construction by Q4 2009.... and could produce liquids by Q4 2012.... and looking at BBY analysis, LNC could have 4 plants operating by 2017. Sasol built 60 000 bpd plant in 2 years.

Cheers
BB

 

[Pigsy]

Been looking at the course of trades today and there's a heap of trades going through at Quantities of 2. What's going on here? All it's doing is dragging the price down. Looks like a bit of market manipulation going on. Can someone explain? Why doesn't the ASX jump on this sort of thing?

 

[aleckara]

We are in the capitulation stage - many are selling at any price
FEAR is dominating GREED is hiding in the corner

Are you sure we have capitulated? I can see that your still interested in stocks, as are a lot of people out there. I hear quite often "wow there is some bargains now". That's not capitulation to me. Capitulation is when most small investors have no hope of ever getting their gains back and just walk away. I don't know if in this market if we will ever see it but it is a possibility. Depends a lot on government action now. The oil price has tanked as well - probably still highly profitable though until other people get in on the action.

I see a lot of hope in LNC. In the short term I think it will go down - people forget that there is still risk here that needs to be discounted that wasn't there before. Look to buy; but I'm not rushing in. Need to see another confirmed uptrend.

 

[The Dealer]

Been looking at the course of trades today and there's a heap of trades going through at Quantities of 2. What's going on here? All it's doing is dragging the price down. Looks like a bit of market manipulation going on. Can someone explain? Why doesn't the ASX jump on this sort of thing?

Margin calls yesterday on shares like BHP don't help the SP. If you held BHP and then had a ML on it to buy some speccy's like LNC and you got the phone call from the bank, you would have to sell off and LNC first to go.
Remember that the fund managers now have to hold LNC in their portfolio's for the index funds etc. There is not enough to go round. They are buying any that come on the market. That means if they need to sell 2 to keep the price down (the share is only worth what the last person paid for it) so they can meet quota they will.
I was listening to the 2 new president candidates yesterday debate. Both said they are committed to clean coal technology and want to make the US energy self sufficient by 2020. Obama even said "we invented the car, the need to make diesel hybrids here in the USA to help sustain jobs".
I have a large holding in LNC. Got in at $1.89 after told about it at 80c but was a watcher for while. It hurts to see to prices go no where but it now part of the big game, on the world stage and when you consider not only the diesel, that it can power plant for electricity, release trapped energy from hard to get at places that are expensive to mine.
I'm sure there is still good news to come on this but PB is seeing good news released and nothing is happening.
Maybe when Mr Paulson is spending some of that $700,000,000,000 he will find it in his heart to make sure the USA is able to produce its own energy.
Tell me your worries about this share and its price in 3 years.
Just stop selling to the big players at crap prices and then they have to offer higher prices to share holder for a slice of the action. They aren't getting mine for 5 years and even then LNC may be a dividend payer! Work out the P/E if you paid $3.20 today and the SP gets to $15 in the next 3 years and pays 5% fully franked. It's p/e is 4. Bargain if you can hold off for dividend paying years. I'm sure the fund managers can. Can you?

 

[Calliope]

Very good post Dealer. In the present market the only news that volatile stocks like Linc wiil respond to is bad news. The ups and downs should not worry the long term holder. As I have said before we all bought this stock originally knowing it was high risk. I bought my first batch at 17.5c and have added continually at higher prices on downturns. The volatility tested my nerves, especially on one day when I dropped $50K.

The various milestones have been attained and there are more to come. I have faith in PB navigating through the shoals.

The oil price is irrelevant. Think about the price of diesel at the pump. Linc expects to turn it out at about one tenth of that price, and this is not crude, it is useable diesel.

 

[Pigsy]

Thanks Dealer for your insight. What p***s me off is if I sold 1 share here and 1 there my broker would close my account down for market manipulation. But it seems the big players can do this without any consequence.

 

[woltage]

Thanks Dealer for your insight. What p***s me off is if I sold 1 share here and 1 there my broker would close my account down for market manipulation. But it seems the big players can do this without any consequence.

The 1 share is probably the remainder of an incomplete sale - I doubt the trader placed a sell of 1 share. I know the minimum trade in Comsec is $500

If I have 1000 LNC shares on sale and somebody buys 999 then I have 1 left in the market.

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Dealer....

"...Tell me your worries about this share and its price in 3 years.
Just stop selling to the big players at crap prices and then they have to offer higher prices to share holder for a slice of the action. They aren't getting mine for 5 years and even then LNC may be a dividend payer! Work out the P/E if you paid $3.20 today and the SP gets to $15 in the next 3 years and pays 5% fully franked. It's p/e is 4. Bargain if you can hold off for dividend paying years. I'm sure the fund managers can. Can you..."

Yeah, good post Dealer! It's good to hear someone postive, and I do have faith in the long term for LNC I just hate being in the red at the moment when I was up substantially a couple of weeks ago hanging on for the liquids announcement before I took some off the table. (didn't get the chance)

It's very easy to be pessimistic at the moment and with good reason in many cases. It's funny how some see the fund managers are responsible for the sp's decline. Are these the same fund managers that recently purchased $25 million worth of shares after the bell at $5 when it had closed at around $4.50?

Can't help but think this won't consolidate until the Xinwan deal is assured. Should be an interesting month or so!

 

[woltage]

Not being negative, just wanting to point out that Linc's success is not assured. And i'm well aware that there are counter points to what i've mentioned below

- Pending recession (and from what I've read its going to be a whopper) will result in reduction in demand for oil.
- Linc are claiming (from memory) they can produce one barrel of clean diesel for $28. Oil was last at this price a mere 4 years ago
- Don't write off biofuels just yet: http://www.ls9.com/
- This amazed me: As much solar energy strikes the earth each day as there is energy in all of earth's estimated coal reserves. Another plus for biofuels and electric cars

Best of luck

 

[basilio]

- Pending recession (and from what I've read its going to be a whopper) will result in reduction in demand for oil.
- Linc are claiming (from memory) they can produce one barrel of clean diesel for $28. Oil was last at this price a mere 4 years ago
- Don't write off biofuels just yet: http://www.ls9.com/

Good post woltage. However there is a significant upside from the recession and reduced demand for oil.

Non renewable oil supplies are depleting rapidly. But if there is a slump in oil demand and therefore oil price for a couple of years there should be a drop in the cost of establishment of the proposed Chincilla engineering complex. One of the issues facing industry has been the rapidly rising costs of construction as energy prices, steel prices jumped. With a bit of luck Linc will have a cheapish development window over the next 2-3 years.

However oil prices will rise steeply in the medium term as natural oil fields deplete.,

The post on biofuels was interesting. Totally agree that natural renewable energy sources are the best solution to the overall problem. Until now the biofuels solution has been a net drain on the environment (more energy cost than return) and a disaster for people actually wanting to eat. Still not sure if the proposed solution will unlock more energy than current systems. The process also seems to require enormous amounts of material input. The simple fact is that any oil is just converted sunlight. Conventional crude oil is highly concentrated, coal is less concentrated while wood chips et al are very low energy density. Good article in Times Online which examines this technology in more detail.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4133668.ece

 

[joestjack]

I find it hard to see that LS9 technology taking off on a commercial scale.

As the article says, to satisfy America's oil demand alone it would need a plant roughtly the size of Chicago.

While that's definitely possible, the price of real estate and the mammoth cost of building a kind of plant like that just doesn't add up to me.

Perhaps it could be good for them to breed the bugs and sell them to people to make their own fuel in their backyard?

A friend of mine is making his own bio-diesel.