Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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If share prices fall say LNC to 50C BHP $5.00 what happens to the company their working capital must take a hit and they have to fold?
LNC - Linc Energy
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A fall in the share price of its own accord doesn't affect a company's solvency unless/until it needs to raise new capital or unless there is some covenant in their borrowing terms that requires the maintaining of a certain market capitalisation.
Not good for the investors of course but " working capital " is not dependent on the SP.
Like Eddie Groves where he owned 30% of the company's stock through margin loans, hence when it fell, it jack-knifed -due to the convenants in place...
I see Peter bond as a true believer - someone who has the vision and enthusiasm to sort this out... plus the Coal tenements - whether they are worth 1.5 bill or even half that will mean the company has a fair bit of workign capital...
the share raising at 2.90 is starting to look expensive now - how many readers that whinged about it at the time would take up that offer now - another P BOND move at the right time to secure the capital he needed to get the company over the hump (until the tenement cash is in the bank).
its not like long term demand for oil/diesel is not sustained... and here is a cost effective option to get this going with less harm to the enviro.. clean energy (well cleaner that most!)
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Was thinking about Linc and the Xinwen tenement purchase. I wondered whether Xinwen would still see this as a good acquisition or not. IMO initially I thought they would be mad to go through with it, but if you factor in the aussie dollar which is currently .62, this offer came through when the aussie was still strong....so I am assuming the purchase is in Australian dollars, the deal is 30-40% cheaper from a chinese point of view.....so for the chinese this may look more attractive then previously thought...how much lower will the market go, hence resource prices etc......you can bet that china will start resource acquisitions?
IMO looking at the trend of the XAO we could certainly drop to 3200 with all the great news out there, probably exceptional value when investors look back in a few years.....
IMO looking at the trend of the XAO we could certainly drop to 3200 with all the great news out there, probably exceptional value when investors look back in a few years.....
Another perspective.
It is disheartening to see our "beloved' Linc fall more 50% from its heights. Then I look at the rest of the market and see far larger percentage falls in companies that are already producing excellent great value resources, are giving a current dividend AND making announcements on resource finds that at any other time would see the stock soar.
For instance KZl (Kagara) has dropped from $6.90 to $1.01 this year, is yielding 11% and has just announced some great Nickel discoveries.
The current market situation is unlike anything we have seen in living memory. The destruction of trillions of dollars of value in paper transactions has attacked the foundations of the real economy - physical resources, worthwhile goods and services. And most clear eyed analysts would say the damage has just begun.
Hopefully Linc is one of the real companies that does survive and prosper because it's product is so fundamentally essential to our survival.
When the value of the most stock fuel by debt (i'm not attacking this stock but any stock in particular but generally) , both personal and corporate then there comes a point in time when that debt need to be taken off, and that time is now then everything will plummet.
I cant understand why people asking stocking was $10 now $1, do they realize that $10 stock maybe all but speculative debt money similar to
people buy house just for capital gain and disregard yield.
This sort of scheme need a continuous pipe of debt that keep growing every day and that is CLEARLY unsustainable. It's simple economic
Now this sort of scheme I don't follow but it benefit the people who use these scheme to their advantage and the people who use it efficiently is Warrenn Buffett. Let debt and speculation drive the stock to historic high while you hoarding cash...down comes the crash, everyone
1. Panic sell out at a lost
2. Force to sell because of their debt level and margin call
3. Meanwhile a list of extremely good stocks sits on the watch list
4. Fear feed on fear for a while drive stock even lower and lower each week
5. Time to buy wonderful company at a fair price or even way below its intrinsic value
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Hi all, This link will take you to a chart showing the history of the Aussie versus the Yuan: http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/CNY/AUD/G/90
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Thanks Noira.
The chinese yuan has strengthened from 5.70 to 4.25 in the time since the deal was announced (to 1 AUD), about 25% drop for the aussie. Xinwen still think this is a good deal?
Disclosure: DO NOT HOLD
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What the hell happened to LNC today? At one point this morning it was down 15%. When I finished work it was down 10%. I get back from the gym to see it closed exactly where it finished Friday!
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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I got out and loss some more... when oil gets to $30 a can there is not much hope for some one like LNC but I would look at buying back in again at 50C...maybe
Good luck trying to get back in at 50c, Glen. I topped up at $2.00 before they dropped down to $1.88 (only about 1000 sold at this price) and was very happy to see them finish back up to last Friday's closing price with total volume of 1.8m .
With OPEC intent on keeping demand and supply in balance, (currently reducing supply by 1.5m bpd), it would seem hard to have the oil price below USD50 for any extended period of time.
Hopefully, many investors with a medium to long term outlook, will see the current share price as very attractive.
There is an announcement this morning at 10.39 regarding the Linc Chairman, Brian Johnson, selling 1m shares from his company TransPacific Capital P/L over the last 5 days for tax reasons.
Perhaps some shareholders heard that a director of the company was selling and decided to get out at any price. SP did rise to $2.68 earlier but has now dropped back to $2.50 (up 9.65%) on volume of 2.8m.
S&P/ASX 200 currently down 0.6% but LNC up 7% to $2.98 after a high of $3.17 earlier today. This follows 3 days of rises for LNC and hopefully the dark days of the S/P falling more than the S&P/ASX 200 index are gone.
Was it all because of the Chairman selling 1m shares ?
Was it all because of the Chairman selling 1m shares ?
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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I am watching trying to work out if to sell and buy back after a drop BUT....the next thing in this madness Night won't follow day any more it is that erratic
Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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It appears some company has developed a better tail pipe which filters the last of the pollutions in Diesel fumes and making Diesel car the most envio. friendly and most economical even beating the Toyota Pirus.
So if OIL goes up LNC are on a winner
So if OIL goes up LNC are on a winner
Anyone watch stateline on the ABC last night? A whole section on burning coal to produce syngas.
Those interviewed were Cougar, Carbon then Linc (saying Linc was the big one). Also, discussion about coexisting with csg, or otherwise.
Also on the ABC southern Qld radio news this morning.
Those interviewed were Cougar, Carbon then Linc (saying Linc was the big one). Also, discussion about coexisting with csg, or otherwise.
Also on the ABC southern Qld radio news this morning.
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Grace, I have just read the Stateline transcript on UCG interviews. As usual the woman from the Australian Conservation Foundation, Monica Richter is dead against it. The Qld Energy Minister Geoff Wilson won't give an opinion for fear of upsetting the Greens. The bloke from Origin is also against it. He thinks it is still experimental, and not proven technology.
These reactions haven't changed over time. All the other participants were supportive and optimistic. It is mainly an ideological divide.
These reactions haven't changed over time. All the other participants were supportive and optimistic. It is mainly an ideological divide.
Yes. Anna needs those green votes. I was speaking to her opposition not so long ago about this. She needs to think of Qld first. Investment will go elsewhere if they think Qld is a risk. It is already happening.
Here is the Linc (oops Link).
http://www.abc.net.au/stateline/qld/content/2006/s2407230.htm
Originally posted by Eric
No disrespect Eric, but why would you wait until Monday to buy LNC when you could have bought a week or so ago for $2 and have made almost 50% on last Fridays close. Anyway I'm glad to hear you've made money along the way. I was sitting on a $200k paper profit when they hit $5 and now waiting for it to recover. I have faith in the medium to long term prospects for this company though and I hope the recent Stateline show propels the SP far enough for me to get off the valium!!
No disrespect Eric, but why would you wait until Monday to buy LNC when you could have bought a week or so ago for $2 and have made almost 50% on last Fridays close. Anyway I'm glad to hear you've made money along the way. I was sitting on a $200k paper profit when they hit $5 and now waiting for it to recover. I have faith in the medium to long term prospects for this company though and I hope the recent Stateline show propels the SP far enough for me to get off the valium!!
