Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

Jump to new
PB stated in the ASX Announcement 6/10 " Linc Energy will have a team in China to finalize the contract in the week beginning the 13th October 2008".

My view is that the Linc team flew from Vietnam to China on the weekend after signing the Vietnam deal, as mentioned in recent previous posts here.

Given that Xinwen have ongoing MUA's with Linc to produce liquids from their vast coal tenements in China, it would be reasonable to assume that they may wish to finalize the $1.5 B Teresa sale after the announcement that the diesel is flowing.

If so, the 2 announcements within hours/days of each other should put a rocket under the SP.

The above comments are speculation so DYOR.
 
Tweaksta said:
The announcement is up!!!

LINC ENERGY PRODUCES FIRST GTL LIQUIDS AT CHINCHILLA SITE.

Let the games begin.
Click to expand...

They have begun with SP opening at 4.15 then fluctuating between 4.29 and 4.10. Currently 4.15 with volume of 1,015,083. Not bad for 15 minutes.

Celebrations tonight !
 
How do you get to be a sophisticated investor? A share placement was made today of 5.86 million shares at 2.90 to "sophisticated offshore and local investors". You wouldn't have to be too smart to snaffle that up when they were trading on panic Friday at 3.20, and liquids due to flow.

Even a dumbarse like me would have grabbed that with a dollar a share profit to be made in minutes.
 
sliding below 3.80.... i bought friday BEFORE last week (4.60) and this slide is killing me - i was hoping they would have support at 4.10 then 4... now i dont know what to think... how low will they go... i was certainly expecting more than the 3.75 they are on now....
 
Calliope said:
How do you get to be a sophisticated investor? A share placement was made today of 5.86 million shares at 2.90 to "sophisticated offshore and local investors". You wouldn't have to be too smart to snaffle that up when they were trading on panic Friday at 3.20, and liquids due to flow.

Even a dumbarse like me would have grabbed that with a dollar a share profit to be made in minutes.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is ridiculous... those same sophisticated investors are no doubt the ones that are selling it down now and taking their profit... its the long term holders who are getting jibbed here via a dilution... why do they need the money is more of a question - with the cash soon to roll in from China...

Disappointed this cant hold $4 - its going to be a long time before any more good news.. this was the rocket that was supposed to send this back towards $5...
 
Rastan said:
sliding below 3.80.... i bought friday BEFORE last week (4.60) and this slide is killing me - i was hoping they would have support at 4.10 then 4... now i dont know what to think... how low will they go... i was certainly expecting more than the 3.75 they are on now....
Click to expand...

Hold your nerve, Rastan. At least until they announce that the $1.5 B sale has been signed and sealed which should be this week.

Me, I'll be holding for years. And wouldn't it be great if PB decided to approve a special dividend of, say 0.10, which would only take about $42M of that $1.5B to give long term shareholders some cashflow.

Currently LNC is 3.99 with volume of 1,933,247
 
I tried to buy in 1 minute after opening and got in at $4.15 looks to me like a smart person should wait until the profit takes finish I could have got in at 3.70 if I had waited 1 hour????
 
Goldmann said:
Yeah this is ridiculous... those same sophisticated investors are no doubt the ones that are selling it down now and taking their profit... its the long term holders who are getting jibbed here via a dilution... why do they need the money is more of a question - with the cash soon to roll in from China...

Disappointed this cant hold $4 - its going to be a long time before any more good news.. this was the rocket that was supposed to send this back towards $5...
Click to expand...

I think the lack of confidence in the market has a lot to do with it also.

We saw a similar thing when they announced the $1.5b deal - the SP rocketed 40% then in about 2 days (i think) it was falling again.

I'm thinking that a lot of people are taking their small profits and running with them, which is why everytime linc has a positive announcement, it just gets absorbed like a sponge.

Patience & balls of steel are strong virtues in this market.

Give it time. This is definitely a long term thing.
 
LADIES PLEASE, NEVER PANIC! Volumes are still relatively low (just over 2 million) and the news isn't really out there yet. Give it time. Also don't forget that the Xinwen Emerald "Teresa" coal sale will "finalise the contract in the week begining the 13 October 2008" (From 'Update to the Market" dated 6 October 2008). Also remember that hedge funds and mutual funds are currently selling to fund redemptions so it may take a while before they consider Linc for a potential fantastic purchase (which it is). Hang in there but start praying that the market rebound holds up long enough for all of the good news to come out. :)
 
Just to get a better idea of this stock:

I can see in the forum and in the news that this stock has a lot of hype about it, and a lot of loyalty it seems. Lots of euphoria.

I note today's announcement while positive is simply for the trial. I can't seem to find when they believe they will be selling product commercially (i.e don't see a timetable anywhere).

Does anyone here know these dates?
 
36 months to commercial GTL Plant completion (12 mths for Gov approval plus 24 months to construct) Source: Latest video on the Linc website http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pc/ Note: I had problems playing this all the way thru but got far enough to answer the question on timeframe. It al looks good, but all good things take time.
 
So...

simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:

20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> AUD $408 million profit p.a @ .75 exchange rate

Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...

You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?
 
The signed contract with China is worth $3.00 plus to the company per share, so it has been delayed, the market is waiting, again as it is late.
 
Woops...my bad. Commencement of commercial facility within the next 12 months, not operating within 12 months. So I guess however long it takes to build the plant plus 12 months or so.
 
Denny Crane said:
So...

simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:

20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> AUD $408 million profit p.a @ .75 exchange rate

Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...

You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?
Click to expand...

Denny, BBY in their analyst report of 8 Sept (after the $1.5B ann) gave a profit of $629,551,430 AUD in the 3rd yr of production.The report is accessible on the Linc website under the tab of "Investor Centre" click on Analyst Reports. They should have another report out later today or tomorrow.

I've also seen the video message (dated Oct 08) by PB and confirm a previous post that the time frame given by PB is 3 years to commercial production. It is also accessible on the Linc website under the "News & Links" tab click on video message.

The analyst report says 85% production in 1st yr and 90% in 2nd yr. So, given that if these timelines eventuate we would have 9 months production by 30/6/2012 @ 85% capacity,we could expect a profit ofapprox $400M. The report also is based on oil at USD75 pb and exchange rate @ 0.80 (Any rate less than .80 would result in more profit). And you're right Denny, there is so much more.

It will be interesting to see the new analyst report from BBY.

Watch out for buying interest from USA tomorrow !
 
I can't help feeling a little disappointed by today's performance....

Several other stocks in my portfolio have had a great two days of gains, LNC however was a fizzler.

Who would've guessed that I could've (or would've) made more money today from investing the same amount into Babcock?

I'm still holding though....

I hope we continue to gain tomorrow.....please God, Jesus, Jah, Mohammed and Buddha - keep us in the green for at least another day!
 
Tweaksta said:
I can't help feeling a little disappointed by today's performance....

Several other stocks in my portfolio have had a great two days of gains, LNC however was a fizzler.

Who would've guessed that I could've (or would've) made more money today from investing the same amount into Babcock?

I'm still holding though....

I hope we continue to gain tomorrow.....please God, Jesus, Jah, Mohammed and Buddha - keep us in the green for at least another day!
Click to expand...

Yes, very disappointing.

Once again I put it down to a lack of confidence. There were buy orders being placed above $4 but the sellers are continually prepared to bail out at low prices.

I'll be interested to see what happens tomorrow.
 

Similar threads

R
The Financial Endgame
Replies
18
Views
9K
qldfrog
qldfrog
R
The American use of War Pretext Incidents
Replies
6
Views
9K
sptrawler
sptrawler
Top