LNC - Linc Energy

[basilio]

Well tweaksta you must have had an infinite supply of steel balls if you have been playing with BNB over the last 12 months and more recently. I noticed you were hoping BNB's bottom was at $7.00 earlier this year.

Today was disappointing given LNC started at it's highpoint and just kept going down. I think the reality is that there is very little confidence left in this market and that taking a real dollar today seems more attractive than waiting for Godot. Lets remember that there is immeasurable ugliness in the current financial world being papered over with trillions of dollars of freshly printed dollar bills. (Doesn't that reality scare you ****less !)

One announcement by one small company of the success of its pilot plant will not turn the market around. LNC is a strategic company offering potentially immense long term returns. But it still has to survive and thrive. Many pioneers don't.

 

[0239666]

Who would have thought we would have been crying over a 15% increase in SP. But I guess everyone here was expecting more with the good news finally here. Maybe it will rise slowly. The good news wont be in the paper until tomorow. Interest in Linc might start to snowball slowly.

 

[Denny Crane]

Thanks Mickel for better specific guidance.

Look forward to the new valuation reports, but I can't fathom it materially changing from their previous valuations.

I wonder how much they could make from project work such as this Vietnam contract?

 

[korrupt_1]

haha... classic example of buy the rumour, sell the fact trading...

everyone just relax - take a chill pill... all this pent-up anticipation for actual liquid production was like a virgin on the first night waiting for that orgasm, that ever came... lol... sorry to anyone who is in the red...

but guys,.. if fundamentals are healthy - and they are... you have nothing to worry about... think of what it could be worth in 12 months...

 

[Santoro]

Sounds like most were a little ambitious...didn't notice the plunge last week...alot of people would have lost alot of money.....takes a bit more than two days of gains and good news to instill confidence.....may take a few weeks before people start to forget the recent hammering.....i'm holding over time this will slowly gain as deals are made to exploit coal reserves in Vietnam, China, US etc....production is better than imports....

 

[namrog]

Posted elsewhere earlier today,

So first liquids produced today, gotta say I'm a little dissapointed with the SP performance, had expected well over $4 by now and nearer $5, considering a lot of other energy shares are up as much or more, on no news, just rebounding on the back of the dows overnight jump

The announcement was a bit vague I thought, might have said how much diesel is being produced, and the quality etc, still, I suppose the process has been proven somewhat, and is continueing, and we can expect more info as it becomes available.

The ann also said ( or I might have seen that on the linc site ) that the theresa deal is weeks away from final completion, so , that too has a bit of a dampening effect on the SP, and when finalised will put a firm floor under the share price.

Some investors probably feeling a little peeved at the share placement at a price of $2-90 to sophisticated investors (i.e. mates, business buddies, family ) to raise 17 mil, but really, this is a very small amount in the big scheme of things, and hardly worth worrying about, any financing in the current climate, is good financing in my oppinion.

All said and done am holding tight for the moment , and looking forward to the future.
LINC have BIG plans, and it's early days yet.

My oppinion only.
Re Joe.

 

[aleckara]

So...

simple, crude and conservative valuation... assuming all goes to plan in the next year or two:

20,000 bpd -> US$80 crude price -> US$30 cost -> US$50 margin -> US$306 million p.a profit -> AUD $408 million profit p.a @ .75 exchange rate

Then you have to factor in the ramp up in production, and start factoring in valuations for its other projects and tenaments, plus the leftover cash from $1.5 billion sale of Teresa...

You can see why there's interest now alec... maybe?

Well I can see it will take them 3 years to even start producing according to the data posted here. Let me put it this way - in 3 years a lot can happen. Good stuff, but also a lot of bad stuff too. In the short term I see this hovering around its range, maybe even going down a little. Not because it is a bad opportunity but because it didn't really sink too much through the subprime crisis. (i.e still at the peaks of the chart).

Good thing for holders; not a good thing for people looking at investing (such as myself). I don't think that it will keep going up much more than other stocks in the market on a bounce IMO.

 

[joelc]

PB is registered as a speaker at a GTL conference in London later this month; http://www.smi-online.co.uk/events/overview.asp?is=5&ref=2961
Indeed nicely timed with the recent flow of liquids.

 

[mexican]

Well done to P Bond and team! World's first!
A lot of people being negative here, remember why you invested in LNC.
Today will open manys door's for LNC.
Congrats again LNC!

 

[MrMarcus]

So things are looking more promising then? I must confess I bailed last week when the price started tanking but will probably get back in now.

 

[Mickel]

Denny, BBY in their analyst report of 8 Sept (after the $1.5B ann) gave a profit of $629,551,430 AUD in the 3rd yr of production.The report is accessible on the Linc website under the tab of "Investor Centre" click on Analyst Reports. They should have another report out later today or tomorrow.

I've also seen the video message (dated Oct 08) by PB and confirm a previous post that the time frame given by PB is 3 years to commercial production. It is also accessible on the Linc website under the "News & Links" tab click on video message.

The analyst report says 85% production in 1st yr and 90% in 2nd yr. So, given that if these timelines eventuate we would have 9 months production by 30/6/2012 @ 85% capacity,we could expect a profit ofapprox $400M. The report also is based on oil at USD75 pb and exchange rate @ 0.80 (Any rate less than .80 would result in more profit). And you're right Denny, there is so much more.

It will be interesting to see the new analyst report from BBY.

Watch out for buying interest from USA tomorrow !

New valuation by BBY out. In the euphoria yesterday I forgot that I had picked up an error in the BBY valuation of 8 Sept (and advised LINC) of approx $13 in their conversion per barrel.

So the profit from the 14 Oct Report based on the same exchange rate and price pb of oil is $545,578,117 EBITDA. BBY do say Linc's diesel would command a premium of USD10 to 20 pb but have not taken that into account.

BBY also give a DCF valuation of A$14.94 based on multiple commercial plants and a DCF ratio of 12%. Very interesting reading.

Their 12 month price target is $7.50sh up from $6.50. Their previous target prices have been conservative, but perhaps wise in view of the market in the last few weeks.

 

[Calliope]

While there is no doubt that Linc has passed a significant milestone it should not be forgotten that the major hurdle to further progress is a political one. Bond said it will take 12 months to get the Qld govt okay to proceed. This has nothing to do with the soundness of the company.

The govt panders to the Greens who hate the use of coal for any type of energy no matter how clean, and will pull any political and environmental strings to get their way.

Luckily Linc have taken out insurance with South Aust and China. Linc's grand plan will succeed. It will take longer, but the delay waiting for the govt decision can be put to good use. Qld will be the loser.

 

[Goldmann]

Starting to get some good publicity now in the mainstream business press (Sydney Morning Herald etc), and P BOND is off today to the US for an investor presentation... more good times to come...

hopefully the Teresa sale goes thorugh this week which will give the SP another kick...

 

[peteai]

I have finally taken the plunge or jumped on the bandwagon - a lot of metaphors apply - the story of LNC sounds good just hope its half as good as it sounds

The things I'm unsure about are :

• is how easy is for others to do what LNC is doing?
• why the test results have not stated more details

 

[Mickel]

I have finally taken the plunge or jumped on the bandwagon - a lot of metaphors apply - the story of LNC sounds good just hope its half as good as it sounds

The things I'm unsure about are :

• is how easy is for others to do what LNC is doing?
• why the test results have not stated more details

No doubt you did your own research, Peteai but perhaps you missed some of the following, most of which is available on their website-

- Linc have been producing Syn gas at Chinchilla for over 10 yrs.
- Linc Bought a Majority share in Ubek company that has used syngas as feedstock for a power station for over 40 yrs.
- Linc has Sth African employees with experience in gas to diesel production
- No one else in the world has converted UCG gas to diesel. All the others have mined the coal then burnt it above ground. A much more expensive and dirtier (environmentally)method.
- Linc have a world class lab on site at Chinchilla where further refinements to their processes are confirmed.
- It is early days with liquids production and perhaps some of their results are commercially sensitive at this time.
- Their stated aim is to have joint ventures rather than licensing their methods so they can retain more control of their technology.

 

[avaramo]

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1943603/ This could spook a few people and see the share price falling (alot) tomorrow.

 

[Pigsy]

I'm just wondering how everyone is protecting their capital with the way the market is at the moment? Probably safe to assume that a lot have purchased LNC recently expecting some exciting announcements to take place and the sp to go north. Then we get a day like today gapping down 12%+ on open. Do you have a stop loss in place (doubt with a gap down like this it would have saved anyone)? Would like to hear what people are doing.

The smart people probably aren't in the market at all.

 

[Tweaksta]

The best way to protect your capital is to stay well away....for the most part I've been quite disciplined and conservative during the crunch.

However, this goddamn LNC gas-to-liquids plant coming online got me excited and in the heat of the moment my emotions overruled my strategy.

Now I feel like a bloody bafoon. I will have to ride it out.

 

[Glen48]

Every time I buy in they go down so I will let you know if I am going to get any more. All I know is they were at 2.86 and up to 5.30 suppose hold on for long term.
No one knows were this will end the Economist from CBA tells us we won't have a recession which is right because we are already in one.

 

[Glen48]

Looks like the market is going to set an new record at going down like the Olympics records are being broken each week.The only ones going up are the small one EG .135 to .140