Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

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jeremyl said:
Mickel Thanks for the update. I'm a UK investor and have a significant investment in AFC Energy. I'm actually going to the investors day at AFCs HQ tomorrow. I was just wondering was there anything else said or discussed regarding Lincs future plans with AFC yesterday or any other comments or discussions on AFC? Thanks. Best wishes Jeremy
Click to expand...

Hi Jeremy. Welcome to ASF.

Nothing else regarding AFC was said during the address by PB. The gathering was welcomed by the LNC COO David Smith. He is a director of Yerostigaz and also a director of AFC Energy. Unfortunately I had to leave immediately after the formal part and wasn't able to talk to David Smith regarding AFC.

My view is that if LNC can establish a suitable site in Sth Aust for UCG, The AFC modules would be a great fit to supply power to the Sth Aust grid, especially now that BHP Billiton appear to be going ahead with a $30B expansion of Olympic Dam in nothern Sth Aust and would require massive amounts of additional power.

Would appreciate your comments on both AFC and LNC after your visit to AFC HQ.
 
Looking at AFC Energy's last independent review in Nov 2010-

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/CPI_03-11-10.pdf

part of the conclusion of the report stated-

"The next phase of the development plan is a critical one for the company. It has to
demonstrate the robustness of its β-system outside the laboratory environment and it has to ensure that it produces a lot of basic system data on both performance and durability. The positive changes it has introduced into the technology over the course of the last twelve months have been significant and surprising given the relatively short time period involved.
The last six months have been a period of consolidation where the company has successfully established its new technical concepts and designs and built a robust delivery team. The next period of development needs to firmly establish the commercial nature of the technology and to demonstrate exactly what it can do. The author, having observed the performance of the company over the last 24 months, has no doubt that the company will deliver its objectives. It has maintained its absolute focus on cost, performance and manufacturability and the author sees no technical reason why the system should not be delivered in accordance with the company’s technical development plan. "

It appears that this is the basis of the current trial in Germany. Let's hope that the trial is very successful and it becomes a game changer in the energy generation industry.
 
For those who are interested the Interactive Investor website has an excellent thread on AFC and the progress of their fuel cell. AFC just had an seminar inviting investors to look at the operating Beta cell and ask questions. There are some excellent reviews of that meeting.

The fuel cell looks very promising indeed and hopefully LNC will exploit it's potential as it becomes commercialised.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:AFC.L
 
More good news from LNC-

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-368.pdf

LINC ENERGY STARTS UP ITS FIFTH (5TH) UCG GASIFIER AND THE WORLD’S FIRST MULTI-PANEL UCG OPERATION

● The Fifth (5th) Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) operation commences at Linc Energy’s world class R&D facility in Chinchilla, Queensland, Australia.

● Gasifier 5 is the most technologically advanced UCG gasifier in operation in the world and marks the final phase in Linc Energy’s UCG technology trials prior to commercial implementation in the near future.

● Gasifier 5 is the Fifth Generation of Technology developed by Linc Energy which is specifically designed to support the commercial roll out of Linc Energy’s Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), Gas to Liquids (GTL) and Clean Gas energy applications.

● Gasifier 5 represents the first multi panel UCG gasifier operation in the western world with Gasifier 5 operating in tandem with Linc Energy’s Gasifier 4 UCG panel.

● Gasifier 5 was producing gas within 60 minutes of ignition, the fastest commissioning of any UCG operation in the world.

It appears that it will be "all systems go" in Wyoming 1st qtr next year.
 
Looks good doesn't it ? What struck me in reading the release was that Gasifier 5 would produce the energy equivalent of 89,000 barrels of oil over its 2-3 year span. So I suppose the questions would be how quickly can each gasifier be built and how many would be needed to provide the raw material for a 5000 barrel a day GTL plant ?

On another note. How many gasifers would be required to be effective in the EOR program ?
 
basilio said:
Looks good doesn't it ? What struck me in reading the release was that Gasifier 5 would produce the energy equivalent of 89,000 barrels of oil over its 2-3 year span. So I suppose the questions would be how quickly can each gasifier be built and how many would be needed to provide the raw material for a 5000 barrel a day GTL plant ?

On another note. How many gasifers would be required to be effective in the EOR program ?
Click to expand...

Don't confuse would with could. This gasifier may ne capable of much higher generation rates but possibly is not being run at maximum. If it was producing 10 times as much gas what would LNC do with the gas. Their GTL plant is only a small pilot plant and flaring heaps of gas is not environmentally accepted these days.
 
Article on Internaxx regarding UCG and expected 5 fold growth. Mentions Linc Energy.

Underground Coal Gasification Poised to Grow Fivefold, Zeus Report
Finds
HOUSTON, TX -- (MARKETWIRE) -- 10/18/11 --

The potential energy supply from underground coal gasification (UCG) is so vast that the technology could rival the sale gas revolution, a Zeus Development Corp. study finds. Because UCG developers can target coals that are deep, of low grade and in seams too thin for economical mining, the technology could increase recoverable reserves threefold, a Lawrence Livermore National Lab report found in 2008.

"Underground coal gasification could solve a lot of the developing world's energy supply challenges, provided developers can manage environmental risks," Zeus Analyst Chris Cothran, a coauthor of the study, said. "We believe it will be applied most extensively in countries such as India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, where governments have unmineable reserves and are keen to improve standards of living without having to compete for high-priced oil."

UCG involves pumping air or oxygen underground to gasify coal in situ into synthesis gas, which is then pumped to the surface. This avoids costly infrastructure, energy and labor required to mine and transport raw coal, gasify it, and then dispose of mountains of ash. With UCG, the ash remains underground. Greenhouse gases can be captured and pumped underground or sold for enhanced oil recovery. The synthesis is used to make electricity, diesel, gasoline, lubricants, or other high-value products.

The concept has been considered for decades, but only recently have technological advancements in seismology, drilling and electronics converged to make it economical. Recent cost estimates for UCG projects come in at levels less than half conventional coal-gasification methods and well below sale gas production.

Several independent energy companies, such as Australian-based Linc Energy Ltd. (ASX: LNC), Wildhorse Energy Limited (ASX: WHE), and Cougar Energy (ASX: CXY) are using technological advancements to push their UCG capabilities forward. Currently, eight projects in Australia, China, Poland, Canada and Uzbekistan are underway. Their owners are surveying sites to build another 43 around the globe. All intend to target deep reserves and tightly manage environmental risks, capturing and sequestering greenhouse gases.

To review the potential for this technology, Zeus has prepared a 108-page report and online database with profiles of all 51 projects worldwide. Information can be obtained at www.zeusintel.com/UCGReport.
 
Power House Energy shares (PHE) jump 67% in the UK to 12.8p on a tip from Red Hot Penny Shares magazine for November (released after market close last Friday).

The tip sheet mentions Linc's 9.99% interest in Powerhouse energy but the article is focused on the companies technology to generate power from waste, including from used tyres. It states that if ongoing trials in Munich are successful the company has named 13 customers or 'immediate prospects' with projects valued at $130.5m and has another 120 prospects accounting for a total sales pipeline worth over $1 billion.

The target price stated by RHPS is 25p in 12 months, of course, dependant on the worlds economy.

Why, may I ask (again), is Linc doing a share buy back when it could be using the cash it has (and the cash rolling in soon - ha, ha :confused: coming from the coal sale - ha, ha :confused:) on buying companies like PHE and AFC and really cornering this new and exciting market WHICH HAS POTENTIAL rather than getting into oil dregs and EOR which is relatively boring and of comparatively limited upside potential???

:horse:

Note:- I am Currently not a Linc holder as they have diversified out of my scope of interest and are becoming a small oily slick of their former drive and potential.

Regretfully not a PHE or AFC holder either but they are now both on my buy list if the world ever returns to normal. :fan
 
Well Lucky Paul LNC bought into PHE to gain access to the above ground coal gasification technology. If in fact the technology is successful and cost effective it could turn around and make a case for applying it to the billions of tons of mined coal that could be gasified and put through the AFC fuel cell.

That would be a world beater!!:)
 
I am keenly following the progress on AFC fuel cells. LNC has 12% interest in the company and the rights to use the fuel cell on their UCG technology and with the above ground coal gasification license.

I came across a submission to the House of Commons which outlined a strategy to give energy security to England and tackle climate change issues. Interestingly enough the AFC fuel cell is an important part of the equation. Good read.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1065/1065vw25.htm
 
LNC release today highlighting their progress in using CO2 to improve oil flows in the newly acquired North American oil leases. Market wasn't impressed and LNC falls another 10.5c to $1.62.5. Disappointing !!:banghead::banghead:

Personally I found it hard to get my head around the release. A fair bit of technical information, some history of the oil fields and references to the previous use of EOR in similar fields. In my view I would like to see

1) The current oil production from these fields
2) Some timeline indication of when EOR and other oil field production enhancements would be happening
3) Anticipated yields from these actions. (accepting of course that these are always open to the physical reality of the situations)

And of course when will the coal sale come through ??

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=lnc&f=pdf
 
Couldn't agree more Basilio, it's like LNC had to 'toss something up' to try and avert the downward spiral. Can't help but wonder how things will be when the buy back reaches the allowable number. Starting to wish I had bailed with lucky paul.
 
Interesting to see that there has not been announcements of share buybacks yesterday or today. It looks as if LNC is not buying back shares and, at the moment, letting the market settle it's SP.

Currently another steep fall. On my figures it is under net asset values in terms of cash and royalties from last years coal sale. Which values the rest of LNCs holdings at zilch.

The lack of news on the Teresa coal sale in conjunction with the darkening economic clouds isn't a good look. If LNC couldn't close a sale a few months ago I wonder how eager buyers will be at the moment ? Perhaps if there is a sale the upfront cash will be relatively small. It should be at least enough to keep LNC going before the full oil and EOR enhanced production comes on line next year.

In fact as a shareholder I would like to see an analysis that shows LNC cash flow positive (without the Teresa coal sale ) before it runs out of its current cash assets. Would certainly improve my confidence in the company.:2twocents

Any thoughts ?

_____________________________________________________________________________________

The LNC AGM is on tonight. Is anyone on the Forum attending ? If you are Brisbane based it would be great to get a first hand summary of the feelings of the Board and shareholders .
 
A final observation.

I think the Teresa coal sale is currently off the table because of the economic conditions. As a result LNC is having to recast it's budget to ensure it doesn't run out of cash before oil sales kick in (and also realising that if there is a serious recession oil prices will almost certainly fall as well) . Hence no more share buybacks for the immediate future. All in IMHO.:2twocents
 
basilio said:
Currently another steep fall. On my figures it is under net asset values in terms of cash and royalties from last years coal sale. Which values the rest of LNCs holdings at zilch.
Click to expand...

Last quarterly shows cash ~$205m (40.8cps) and the royalties from memory was $2.5B notional value spread over a good number of years into the future. I wonder what is the discount if they choose to monetise that royalty stream now.

On ~$800m market cap today, the share price is saying the royalty stream is worth 25% of the notional value in today's dollar...

Then everything else comes free...
 
Technically, looking very ordinary now, since it closed under main support at 1-75, then there was a good chance that it wouldn't pull up until it hit 1 -25, "the range" that's just my oppinion though...

Linc has always been a very leaky opperation, so you wonder what's going on behind the scenes, also it has a history of volatility so when there are general market jitters it's one of those that gets sold off hard, and when the market settles gets bought up hard...

Sold out of Linc earlier in the year and looking to get back in again, may dip a toe around 1-30 ish if it gets there, either ways the chart usually gives fair indication of whats in store, and that usually comes from insiders..!!!
 

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Another day.. another dollar ? At the moment there is at least one keen bottom feeder looking for a bite.

It will be interesting to see how LNC goes after the AGM. Does anyone have any first hand observations of the meeting ? One thing I noticed in reading the reports was the details on the fuel cell technology. Up until now I have felt it wasn't really given much air time. I think that has changed.

____________________________________________________________________

Also came across an analysis of LNC done through a small boutique investment group. Quite thorough. I also thought the way the investment group worked was worth a look. It uses what it calls "collective wisdom" where it encourages members to contribute their own ideas and research into the pool for consideration. Looked good.

(Unfortunately they have just decided to wind up the group. Shame)

https://nakedfunds.com.au/ArticleTemplate1.aspx?ArticleID=324e3363-04ab-4c1d-bead-dd81d19ce4a7
 
Mickel, Mr Z,

Are either of you keeping a daily list of short selling?

If so could you share?

I have been topping up.

After a quick look at the market depth a couple of days ago, it appeared as if very many small trades piled up very fast (matter of seconds) on the sell side every time the share price moved down a cent. This may be computer generated trading software.

Good to hear we are cashflow positive.

But still a lot of small commitments on the back burner i believe, like cooper basin drilling.

Exxaro are huge in Africa, hopefully the MOU is mutually effective.

Did anyone attend the Annual meeting?

Hungry for UCG


Cheers,
Jonathan
 

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