Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

I bought into LNC specificallty for the UCG GTL process and that's all.

So did I. Many years ago. I bought 50,000 shares at 17c a share. I was very impressed with the idea. I made a lot of money out of LNC, when Peter Bond so successfully convinced the market that UGL had a great future, and the shares hovered around $5. Obviously he doesn't see that any more and has turned into a snake oil merchant. Perhaps he always was.

Chinchilla might have been goer if the environmentalists hadn't scared him off, and sent him running to SA.

However, I can't complain, He made me a lot of money.
 
I cant believe that LNC is so cheap.
What is going on here ? Is there something that we dont know?
Looking at the chart it seems like it has a low of about $1 about every 12 to 18 months and then has a nice rebound.
This stock hasnt really been under $0.95 since april 2008 (0.95 in april 2010).
IMO this a great buy at around $1
It seems that LNC has a massive upside at this price and with valuations of $5+.
I bit the bullet today and bought a generous parcel, just see what happens but I cant see it sliding much further IMHO
lnc.jpg
 
Is it possible that a prospective buyer may encourage or be involved in the short selling and/or computer generated trading, in order to push Linc's hand to sell? i hope not.

IMO shorters have been able to thrive due to the high supply of the stock vs low demand. There has also been a draw back and hold back of cash by investors, due to the situation in Euroupe and the US. Why do they do it? Because they can, and they profit from it to others detriment.

Labours Carbon Tax and MRRT has slowed the coal sale down along with the situation in Euroupe.

Linc is not yet earning a sustainable yearly profit. In times like these prospective investors are not willing to take on the risks of investing in a company that has not had proven positive cashflows.

But now Linc is $1.04. Very low and may attract short termers looking for a pop.

Linc has a bright future, the question is WHEN.

Oil production [cashflow] will increase progressively over the next few years.

The number and scale of oil, gas and coal leases held now compared to the last time Linc was around $1 is very different.

A US UCG 90 day trail is coming at the end of next year, CO2 is coming, EOR and Huff and Puff. I wonder if they can used to CO2 from this trail in their EOR work.

As time passes the Adani royalty is increasing in value.

Will they be able to find something new Umiat or just prove up the oil. Hopefully there is more there than known. Prudho bay is close, check out how big it is if you dont know. Even by proving this resource up, it will bring the road and pipeline closer to fruition and big long term cash flow closer too.

Also check out the PRB. Not sure if there is sale value there. But this report suggests it.
"Linc Energy acquired 180,000 acres of coal leases for $25m for a UCG trial operation in Wyoming’s coal prolific Powder River Basin ... The area is hotly contested with Peabody, Arch and ex-Rio Tinto Cloud Peak Energy. All would be eager to add to additional commercial coal to inventory and production, which LNC could monetize. We value the conventional coal mine ..."

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&...BsMx5J&sig=AHIEtbQE7TNNhqbVC_vK3G5k-kVuTYKLig

Check out the seams at Arch's Black Thunder Coal mine in the PRB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LQwxTm94Ps


Basilio i think there will be about $30-40m by Jan 12.

Minus $130m for ERG assets deposits bought in Oct.
- Drilling, Huff and Puff, Wages, items for the UCG plants and GTL, Cricket and advertising, buy back, presentations, oil field improvements, afc fuel cell, powerhouse units? all cost money..

Are they able to sustain ops without a coal sale?? I think the prospective buyers are licking their lips as Linc's cash reserves have lowered. Can Linc increase its cash flow, it depends if they can continue to increase production with their current drilling program. The first well has them on target, but its only the first. Huff and Puff results should be coming out soon and then the completion of the second well in the ERG fields. Maybe the Rancher field production will get a kick in the right direction from this huff and puff exercise.

Below is a quick guestimate..
3300bpd x $85 x 365days = approx $120m - $60 (cash burn?/500 employees wages etc?) - $60m (loan repayments over 3-4 years, tax/royalty) = $0 ?
+ $0.5m Uzbekistan?

I read posts that the execs are over in China.
 
The share price has fallen because they have been slow with the commercializaton of
UCG/GTL, and thus shareholders have turned bearish on this stock.
Also their cash balance looks shaky, here are some rough numbers.

Balance to previous quarter: 205,000.000
Purchase of ERG oil fiels: -120,000.000 ( total cost 250 mln, 130 mln credit facility )
Estimated cash outflows: -50,000.000
Revenue: 25,000.000

Balance sheet end of quarter 60,000.000 est.

So the balance sheet overall will be negative 70 mln due to the credit facility with BNP Paribas.

Anyone care to guess how much the 5000bpd Modular GTL Plant is going to cost?

My guess would be between 150mln to 180mln.
 
Massive boost today. Any ideas why? Heard no news but obviously something is in the pipeline and someone knows about it.
 
This too caught my eye today, but I didn't buy in. Speculation and rumours about finding a buyer for their coal project.

Was up over 20% today I think at one stage, then got sold off after 3pm. Solid effort, could see a reversal to the upside here perhaps :confused:

Next week of trading should be interesting.
 
PB was in China speaking to the AFR for a story.

The deal in China if it goes through will be bigger than any other UCG Linc deal.

The deal would see Linc commercialise its underground coal gassification technology in the country.

cornerstone investor...
 
DJ MARKET TALK: Linc Energy Choppy After Revealing Investor Talks



2357 GMT [Dow Jones] Linc Energy (LNC.AU) shares remain choppy after the company's revelation this morning that it's in talks with a potential cornerstone investor. It seems traders have taken some profits, as Linc shares initially fell to A$1.285, although they are now outperforming the broader market. Linc said that while its pursuing a number of divestment opportunities, it has not yet entered into any binding arrangements. While a cornerstone investor potentially would potentially strengthen the company, shareholders face the possibility of their stake being diluted. Nevertheless, with Linc shares near 18 month lows, valuation support should continue to limit downside potential. Linc shares closed up 18% at A$1.33 on Friday after surging to a 4-week high of A$1.43.
 
The Queensland government has set up an independent scientific panel to report on the future of the industry in
May this year.

While the potential suitor in China remains unknown, Austock analyst Paul Jensz said it would most likely be
one of the big state-owned enterprises.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/general_news/LNC-general-news-18.pdf

Linc have to report their texas production numbers to the texas railroad commission

Go to Data - Online Research - Production Data Query System (PDQ)
- Linc Gulf Coast - District 2 and 3

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/index.php
 
20-01-2012 10-17-23 PM weekly.png

Appears to have reversed and now looking at first target of 1.80 barring any serious problems from projects or globally. Strong return of volume. There was a frenzy leading up to the last tenement sale (although took a long time to happen as this seems to as well) but apart from waiting for that, at least we know that PB has a lot of skin in the game.

I don't know much about LNC at the moment but they spent 106M in the last quarter and have about 200m left in the bank as of September. Their burn is fast (16m in admin for instance) but things are moving rapidly or at least they are doing a lot.

Not sure what else to add at this stage but interested in opinions on upcoming developments from anyone that knows a bit more. ?
 
Well the quarterly report has been out for a week now, what do you think?
In reference to my assumptions I made (refer thread #2101 ) to end of Qtr balance sheet I wasn't too far off. Overstated revenues by 13 mln and loan facility of 10 mln.

Anyhow 32 mln for this company is not much, looking to sell assets ( teresa ) for cash injection. Cannot rely on revenues alone for expenditure. Currently in the red by 100 mln.

There is no mention of the 5000 bpd modular in their report at all, which I think is one of the most important issues they have. Unfortunately the company appears to have some problems in China with manufacturers or contractors.

Today there were two large sellers at the end. One was selling 320000 shares at 1.405 and another 470000 at 1.35.
 
Hmmm i would not worry about large sellers at the end of a break out day, as this stock only requires 10% margin to trade with most CFD brokers. So $450K of nominal value shares only costs 45K margin ...not a lot in the scheme of things considering its valued a 700mil company. it was probs just a day trader getting out at the end after a strong up day.
 
Relevant news from UK regarding Oxford Catalysts (OCG)

14th Feb 2011

OXFORD CATALYSTS GROUP PLC
("Oxford Catalysts" or "the Group")


GTL Engineering Study Update
Oxford Catalysts Group PLC, the leading technology innovator for synthetic fuels production, is pleased to announce that it has successfully progressed to the next phase (known as FEL2) of an engineering study for a 15,000 bpd Gas-to-Liquids ("GTL") plant.

The study, conducted on behalf of a $multi-billion Exploration & Production company by a major engineering firm, is evaluating a facility in North America for converting shale gas into finished synthetic fuels. This next phase of the evaluation is due to begin shortly with a budget of several $million.

The Group announced its successful selection for the first phase of the engineering study (FEL1) in June 2011.

Roy Lipski, CEO of Oxford Catalysts Group said:

"We're pleased to be one of only a very small number of providers to have been chosen to progress to the next stage of this engineering study. The first stage of the study confirmed the economic advantage of our technology, due to its higher performance and modular nature.

"This is an exciting opportunity for the Group to participate in what could be one of the first major GTL plants to be built in North America. Market conditions for our products are better than ever and we're enjoying record levels of interest in our technology.

"Our successful selection for this next phase of the study provides further validation of the commercial attractiveness and relevance of our offerings, particularly for distributed scale opportunities."

COME ON LINC!​
From leader to laggard in the CTL/GTL business is so very,very sad. Why are you dicking around with coal, share buy backs and left over oil when you should be leading this new technology and rocking the world?!!! Have you been paid off by the oil companies, maybe???

By now you should own OCG, PHE, AFC and other niche companies be world leader in the field, your field. Diversification, at your stage, is weakness. FOCUS now or lose it, like you have lost me as a shareholder!

:banghead:
 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...hin-three-months/story-e6frg9df-1226294467883

Linc CEO predicts JV or sale of Teresa coal within three months

by: Rhiannon Hoyle
From: Dow Jones Newswires
March 09, 20128:44AM


LINC Energy expects a deal within the next three months of either a joint-venture or a sale for its Teresa coal property in Queensland, the company's chief executive said.

The company, which has energy assets in Australia, the US, Alaska and Uzbekistan, confirmed in late January it was exploring a range of options for the asset, including full divestment, partial divestment or joint venture opportunities.

Speaking at the ASX Emerging Growth conference in London, Peter Bond said: "We expect some sort of JV or sale to progress on Teresa in the next 90 days...we are getting a lot of interest in this asset".

Earlier this year, Linc also said it was in discussions with a potential cornerstone investor, with which it may pursue underground coal gasification and gas-to-liquids opportunities in China.
 
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