LNC - Linc Energy

[basilio]

Good to hear we are cashflow positive.

Where did you see/hear this Jonathan ? I thought LINC was still burning more than it was making at this stage.

 

[Mr Z]

Mickel, Mr Z,

Are either of you keeping a daily list of short selling?

You can keep tabs on it here...

http://www.asx.net.au/data/shortsell.txt

 

[Jonathan111]

Where did you see/hear this Jonathan ? I thought LINC was still burning more than it was making at this stage.

Another poster wrote that PB mentioned this at the AGM; also there was supposed to be a meeting last week and one today involving negotiations for teresa; also some results from huff and puff eor should be available in 4 weeks

 

[basilio]

Another poster wrote that PB mentioned this at the AGM; also there was supposed to be a meeting last week and one today involving negotiations for teresa; also some results from huff and puff eor should be available in 4 weeks

That all sounds promising. With the current financial instability I have been fearing that the Teresa sale is off the table. If/when it does come off LNC will be an absolute steal. But we can remember how long it took to go from the initial announcement of the first coal sale (Sept 2008) to final consummation (July 2010)

I'm still surprised at the suggested positive cash flow situation. Frankly if that was the case I would have though we would be hearing much more about it. And if LNC is cash flow positive at this early stage in the development of it's American oil fields how much upside is there ?

 

[Jonathan111]

Reported Gross Short Sales...........*Date
217,631..........................................*17-Nov
197,867..........................................*18-Nov
206,131..........................................*21-Nov
151,824..........................................*23-Nov
162,098..........................................*24-Nov
282,466..........................................*25-Nov


http://www.afr.com/rw/AFR/Web/Tables/Share_Tables_Daily/2011-11-28/ZXssda111128.xls

 

[Jonathan111]

1,027,878.............................28-Nov


More sub-bituminous coal in Poland


"the energy policy pursued by the Polish government is centred on security of energy supply, with competitive cost structures, minimum environmental impacts and increased energy efficiency."
http://www.euracoal.org/pages/layout1sp.php?idpage=76

 

[Jonathan111]

The information below may also help identify shorting.


This report presents the outstanding gross and net loaned position in each ASX-listed security, summed across all reporting participants as at the reporting date
http://www.asx.com.au/data/securities_lending_outstanding_loaned.xls



Found this pic on another website.

http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/about.htm


http://www.asx.com.au/professionals/securities-lending-disclosure.htm

 

[basilio]

Couple more updates on LNC and associated interets

The AGM presentation is now on Boardroom radio. Full story and slide show. Excellent stuff.

Towards the end at 1.12 they discuss the AFC fuel cell technology and its capacity to delver cheap, clean CO2 free energy from UCG. On the same note AFC has just been given a grant to commercialize the high volume production of its fuel cells.

The presentation is well worth seeing.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/frame/89774
http://www.afcenergy.com/RNS/Award of Grant FINAL 011211.pdf

 

[basilio]

Peter Bond has just bought himself Dunk Island. Perhaps it will be holday place for the LNC millionaires.

Apparently it will need total refurbishment becasue it was trashed by Cyclone Yasi last year. I reckon Peter could get creative and use some of LNC clean energy technology as a showpiece on the place.

PS Wonder if this suggests the Teresa deal is signed and sealed ??

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...t-for-10-million/story-e6freoof-1226211544830

 

[basilio]

LNC still diving.. They have (obviously) stopped buying their shares I assume to preserve cash.

Teresa doesn't look like been sold in the near future. One could certainly understand the reluctance of buyers given the fragile state of the EU.

I suppose what concerns me is the seeming failure of institutional support for the company. Or am I just looking too closely at LNC and not appreciating that many other excellent prospects are severely marked down ?

 

[awg]

Regretably as a long-term holder I decided to ditch LNC recently at 1.75

I did this because, in my mind:

*they have persistently failed to meet timeline expectations
*they have not made enough progress on core UCG/GTL.

I was reluctant because at least they are not heavily indebted and without income, but nevertheless, I decided LNC did not make the cut based on the above, and present conditions mean many stocks will continue to be marked down unless they tick all the boxes imo

 

[namrog]

Regretably as a long-term holder I decided to ditch LNC recently at 1.75

I did this because, in my mind:

*they have persistently failed to meet timeline expectations
*they have not made enough progress on core UCG/GTL.

I was reluctant because at least they are not heavily indebted and without income, but nevertheless, I decided LNC did not make the cut based on the above, and present conditions mean many stocks will continue to be marked down unless they tick all the boxes imo

That's a very understandable position to take awg, you sold at $ 1-75, so you're in front, in a sort of way taking today's close into consideration....

I originally bought into Linc because of the ucg / ctl possibilities also, but like yourself have become a bit disillusioned with the move into other what I consider none core operations, and have bailed out also, however there is a price where I will re- enter, because of perceived value, and technical support, so keeping a close eye on it as I believe we are not too far away from a possible bottom, and entry...!!!

That's only my opinion though ...!!!

 

[basilio]

LNC seems to be in free fall. Now down to $1.25

If the Louisiana oilfields are going to plan LNC should be reaping some worthwhile cash flow. (The original press release talked of 3300 BOED as the initial yield) Probably not enough to become cash flow positive overall but a decent contribution.

There should still be $180m in the bank to cover cash flow for the medium term future. The EOR program is supposed to show fruit within a few months. At that stage one would think LNC became cash flow positive...

Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?

 

[Calliope]

Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?

You are still whistling in the dark, but I'm afraid that the market has woken up to the fact that Peter Bond is full of bullsh*t.

 

[awg]

LNC seems to be in free fall. Now down to $1.25

Any thoughts on the relentless selling and seemingly little support ? Any ideas on what could turn sentiment around ?

Yes...finalise the coal asset sale, (might help)

stop making anns that are hyped-up

explain why they seem to have virtually abandoned GTL ( although I strongly suspect that the answer is bad news)

 

[Toolong]

I must say at a time when LNC really needs to be focussed on achieving some goals to keep the investor interest, Mr Bond is off buying wrecked islands and a cricket team. It will require a fair amount of time and effort to turn Dunk Island around. Is he looking to move onto something else? Maybe he will team up with Eddy to bring the Brisbane Bullets back??

Still holding LNC - Definately testing the nerve though.

 

[Atomic]

I must say at a time when LNC really needs to be focussed on achieving some goals to keep the investor interest, Mr Bond is off buying wrecked islands and a cricket team. It will require a fair amount of time and effort to turn Dunk Island around. Is he looking to move onto something else? Maybe he will team up with Eddy to bring the Brisbane Bullets back??

Still holding LNC - Definately testing the nerve though.

yep very exciting also Toolong !! , want to buy up , but when to pull the trigger is killin me

 

[Toolong]

yep very exciting also Toolong !! , want to buy up , but when to pull the trigger is killin me

Hard to know when that will be Atomic. I'm reading different things on the cash situation. Looks like people's fears over the past months about LNC spreading themselves too widely and spending too much cash might be ringing true. Maybe they banked on the sale coming off... The slide continues anyway and the only anns are buy backs which are doing little to stem the exits.

 

[basilio]

Something to think about re LNC.

Last year the coal sale netted $500m cash plus a royalty deal worth around 2.5B. Adanai the Indian company that bought the coal has been going full steam ahead with infrastructure development to get the show on the road so that royalty stream is looking better and better.

It also has at least 2 other valuable coal deposits that can be sold..

LNC has a swathe of oil producing resources in the US that are coming on line and being expanded. On top of that there are large longer term oil projects (Alaska) the UCG technology which is apparently now well sorted out and many, many coal leases that can be exploited via the UCG process.

LNC has interests in at least 2 complementary technologies - The alkaline fuel Cell and the above ground coal gasification - that can drive commercialization of their UCG technology.

There is around $180m in the bank to cover costs for the forseeable future.

And at close of business today all this was valued at $530m !!.

 

[Smurf1976]

And at close of business today all this was valued at $530m !!.

It's the lack of certainty I think.

Is this a UCG GTL company that's going to be selling diesel? Or is it an electricity utility that generates power? Is it a conventional oil company that buys old wells and works them over? Is it a coal company?

What, exactly, is the main activity and source of revenue for this company going forward? That's what has me, and no doubt many others, worried. With most companies it's not difficult for the average person to understand what business they are primarily involved in and assess their abilities to operate in that industry - not so with LNC.

Peter Bond buying a smashed up tourist resort hasn't helped either in my opinion. There just seems to be too much happening all at once for him, or LNC as a whole, to really focus on. "Jack of all trades, master of none" is a saying that comes to mind.

I bought into LNC specificallty for the UCG GTL process and that's all. Conventional oil production I can live with, it's selling into the same end market, but I'd just like to see a firm plan for exactly what they're going to do goind forward. The way it is now, it's like a retailer planning to open 100 stores but not being able to tell anyone what they are planning to sell - are we talking about convenience stores? Supermarkets? Department stores? Is it a take away chain? Maybe it's a new car dealership? That's pretty much comparable to LNC I think - just sort out what the actual plan is.