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Maybe they found shale oil? I think it was mentioned they were targeting this as well in the last Presentation.
LNC - Linc Energy
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Hey LuckyPaul can you please, please,please send over some that hooch your holding out on !!
That is one great story you have come up with.
I cannot see in any universe how LNC could sit on information about an oil find in the Arckaringa drill. Just too, too illegal and dangerous and of course easy to discover later on. And honestly if there was some sort of find could you imagine the drillers , workers ect keeping their mouths shut for weeks while the company refused to make an announcement ? Sorry just not feasible.
But it would be good to know WTF is happening anyway. It is a mystery why there have been no announcements. I suspect it has been a dry hole and they are still drilling until they run out of any hope and/or find some more underground coal as a consolation prize.
On another note did anyone see the sale of the Rinehart Galilee coal mine to the Indian conglomerate ? Perhaps the extra development in the region will push the Teresa sale along.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/coal-assets-a-hot-item-20110918-1kfy7.html
That is one great story you have come up with.
I cannot see in any universe how LNC could sit on information about an oil find in the Arckaringa drill. Just too, too illegal and dangerous and of course easy to discover later on. And honestly if there was some sort of find could you imagine the drillers , workers ect keeping their mouths shut for weeks while the company refused to make an announcement ? Sorry just not feasible.
But it would be good to know WTF is happening anyway. It is a mystery why there have been no announcements. I suspect it has been a dry hole and they are still drilling until they run out of any hope and/or find some more underground coal as a consolation prize.
On another note did anyone see the sale of the Rinehart Galilee coal mine to the Indian conglomerate ? Perhaps the extra development in the region will push the Teresa sale along.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/coal-assets-a-hot-item-20110918-1kfy7.html
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Ha, Ha! Yes I know, my oil find conspiracy was mad but you never know. Just driven by imagination no liquids involved (sounds just like Linc at present)!
Why are Linc taking so long with EVERYTHING nowadays? Have they diversified too much...jack of all trades, master of none??
They are doing so much work on the coal sale to make it more juicy for the buyers they may as well buy a shovel and mine the blo*dy coal themselves! They have spent over two years on this - it is now of little value compared to the time and money spent on it.
What happened to commercialising GTL? Other companies like Oxford Catalysts/Velosys (UK Aim market ticker: OCG) and Syntroleum (US: SYNM) are all taking the lead in this arena now. Why are Linc buying themselves (is that stock masutrbation??) when they could be buying OCG - with their microchannel Fischer Tropche reactors and catalysts business????
Another market crash is licking its lips as we wait and there is still such a market risk TO EVERYTHING now, selling at this price could be a good move. Unthinkable and financially painful (for me) but buying Linc stock back for $1.20 in 2 years is a definite possibility with markets giving it to any stock holder Greek style in the meantime!!!
P.s. There is no way to resolve the current debt crisis withouth decades of austerity or default. Defaulting WILL happen for sure with all the associated impacts. Waaaaaa!
Still a significant stock holder but now a very scared significant stock holder.
Why are Linc taking so long with EVERYTHING nowadays? Have they diversified too much...jack of all trades, master of none??
They are doing so much work on the coal sale to make it more juicy for the buyers they may as well buy a shovel and mine the blo*dy coal themselves! They have spent over two years on this - it is now of little value compared to the time and money spent on it.
What happened to commercialising GTL? Other companies like Oxford Catalysts/Velosys (UK Aim market ticker: OCG) and Syntroleum (US: SYNM) are all taking the lead in this arena now. Why are Linc buying themselves (is that stock masutrbation??) when they could be buying OCG - with their microchannel Fischer Tropche reactors and catalysts business????
Another market crash is licking its lips as we wait and there is still such a market risk TO EVERYTHING now, selling at this price could be a good move. Unthinkable and financially painful (for me) but buying Linc stock back for $1.20 in 2 years is a definite possibility with markets giving it to any stock holder Greek style in the meantime!!!
P.s. There is no way to resolve the current debt crisis withouth decades of austerity or default. Defaulting WILL happen for sure with all the associated impacts. Waaaaaa!
Still a significant stock holder but now a very scared significant stock holder.
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It was a good laugh Lucky and worth putting it out there.
I agree the scenario at present is scary and I can see your point about bailing out now and coming back in a couple of years. Perhaps a half bail out ?
I agree that stretching out this coal sale seems to be losing value for the company and possibly risking the whole sale. That would (obviously) hurt in the current climate. Don't really think they have overspent on improvements but we'll never know will we ?
The next few years will be interesting times. I suggest that if any companies are going to be worth investing and hanging onto their shares they will need to produce an essential product and make a reasonable enough return to pay shareholders dividends and continue operations.
I suggest the days of mining companies simply reinvesting profits into more exploration and development and expecting shareholders to hold on while the SP wallows is unrealistic. Sincerely hope LNC establishes a good cash flow and follows this path.
I agree the scenario at present is scary and I can see your point about bailing out now and coming back in a couple of years. Perhaps a half bail out ?
I agree that stretching out this coal sale seems to be losing value for the company and possibly risking the whole sale. That would (obviously) hurt in the current climate. Don't really think they have overspent on improvements but we'll never know will we ?
The next few years will be interesting times. I suggest that if any companies are going to be worth investing and hanging onto their shares they will need to produce an essential product and make a reasonable enough return to pay shareholders dividends and continue operations.
I suggest the days of mining companies simply reinvesting profits into more exploration and development and expecting shareholders to hold on while the SP wallows is unrealistic. Sincerely hope LNC establishes a good cash flow and follows this path.
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Indian Company GVK invests heavily in Queensland...but not Linc.....at least yet?
http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5429099/india-acquires-australian-coal-assets
http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5429099/india-acquires-australian-coal-assets
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I am expecting some resolution on the ERG purchase soon.
Sasol is planning to build 96000bpd gtl plant in Louisiana..and another one in uzbekistan..doesnt look like linc is involved in either though.
http://www.southafrica.info/business/success/sasol-200911.htm
Linc must be producing something at Chinchilla if the smell is coming from them.
Teresa sale may come out of the blue now that the lnc share price has been smashed down, like last time.
Drilling at Cloncurry Richmond must be have happending too.
Sasol is planning to build 96000bpd gtl plant in Louisiana..and another one in uzbekistan..doesnt look like linc is involved in either though.
http://www.southafrica.info/business/success/sasol-200911.htm
Linc must be producing something at Chinchilla if the smell is coming from them.
Teresa sale may come out of the blue now that the lnc share price has been smashed down, like last time.
Drilling at Cloncurry Richmond must be have happending too.
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•Project Manager, UCG at LINC ENERGY LTD
"Currently my focus is on managing Linc's Wyoming UCG demonstration facility from our Casper, Wyoming office. We manage over 300,000 acres of coal leases."
...
"On a week to week basis I dealt with our Vietnamese and Japanese partners to move the project forward from the licensing stage to the implementation stage. Project budget was US$5.3MM and timing is soon. Currently I am managing operations for Linc first international UCG project in Casper, Wyoming. Scheduled commissioning date is 2011"
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_logo
"Currently my focus is on managing Linc's Wyoming UCG demonstration facility from our Casper, Wyoming office. We manage over 300,000 acres of coal leases."
...
"On a week to week basis I dealt with our Vietnamese and Japanese partners to move the project forward from the licensing stage to the implementation stage. Project budget was US$5.3MM and timing is soon. Currently I am managing operations for Linc first international UCG project in Casper, Wyoming. Scheduled commissioning date is 2011"
http://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=hb_logo
As a long time LNC holder, I've been watching this thread for a few years now. I must say I can sense the optimism eroding even from Basilio (only slightly Basilio) but I'm a little frustrated with the lack of info from LNC of late. I think until they start generating a solid revenue stream from one of the many possibilities I keep hearing about, the SP will continue to disappoint me. I just hope they don't run out of money if they continue to spread themselves so widely. Anyway I enjoy the posts guys, just hope our luck turns around, though not holding my breath.
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I think the whole market has just gone xhit scared. Objectively LNC still has (I think) $300m in the bank. The Wyoming oil wells should be producing some worthwhile income. It is disappointing that the Teresa coal sale has not being finalised and as the economic clouds get darker one wonders if the price will fall substantially or the sale is even called off. Also the question of the Arckaringa drill should be addressed. It is way overdue for a report.
I think we should also brace for a fall in energy prices. If/when Greece fails and we see some real terror in the financial markets I just can't see how this won't affect the economy.
At the depths of the GFC 1 there were at least some companies selling at substantial discount to cash in the bank. (BRM for one ) I think the business model for companies overall may need to be modified if it is going to hold investor interest (and funds ) through very tough times.
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There should be some significant news from LNC in the next day or so.
I was just scouting the AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell) discussion page on Interactive Investor and one of the posters noted that LNC would be putting out a newsletter imminently. When you go back to the April newsletter you can see there are a number of projects that should be starting to generate real dollars. In particular the Ranger oil wells in Wyoming should be starting to show the effect of initial operations upgrade.
Apparently LNC has also appointed a Chief Executive David Smith to the AFC Board . Again I think it is clear that we will see the hydrogen fuel cell being used relatively soon to turn UCG gas into non polluting electricity.
Despite any news I can't see any upside to LNC SP at the moment. The market is rightly in a funk and (almost) everything will be sold down. On the bright side this will be an excellent opportunity for cashed up and cash flow positive companies to buy assets from struggling operations. (Just hope LNC is on the right side of that deal !)
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L&display=discussion&it=le
I was just scouting the AFC (Alkaline Fuel cell) discussion page on Interactive Investor and one of the posters noted that LNC would be putting out a newsletter imminently. When you go back to the April newsletter you can see there are a number of projects that should be starting to generate real dollars. In particular the Ranger oil wells in Wyoming should be starting to show the effect of initial operations upgrade.
Apparently LNC has also appointed a Chief Executive David Smith to the AFC Board . Again I think it is clear that we will see the hydrogen fuel cell being used relatively soon to turn UCG gas into non polluting electricity.
Despite any news I can't see any upside to LNC SP at the moment. The market is rightly in a funk and (almost) everything will be sold down. On the bright side
this will be an excellent opportunity for cashed up and cash flow positive companies to buy assets from struggling operations. (Just hope LNC is on the right side of that deal !)http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:AFC.L&display=discussion&it=le
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I think the Linc buyback has started!
500,000 shares on open which took the SP up to $1.825 even after last nights chaos across the US markets. Another 250,000 sitting in the queue at $1.765
I think if I had to buy 25 million shares I would hang on a bit..... unless of course I had discovered oil as per my previous post - ha, ha!
At least the price may be supported at this sad level for a while.
500,000 shares on open which took the SP up to $1.825 even after last nights chaos across the US markets. Another 250,000 sitting in the queue at $1.765
I think if I had to buy 25 million shares I would hang on a bit..... unless of course I had discovered oil as per my previous post - ha, ha!
At least the price may be supported at this sad level for a while.
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Investor Linc is out.
Bus. plan update
Gen5
Gen6
Bus. plan update
Gen5
Gen6
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I think the Linc buyback has started!
500,000 shares on open which took the SP up to $1.825 even after last nights chaos across the US markets. Another 250,000 sitting in the queue at $1.765
I think if I had to buy 25 million shares I would hang on a bit..... unless of course I had discovered oil as per my previous post - ha, ha!
At least the price may be supported at this sad level for a while.
Don't think so Lucky. According to the notice LNC released they can only start the buyback on 26th Sept.
I think some investors are recognising how underpriced LNC currently is. If one accepts that the remainder of the Adani sale is worth around $700m monetized then with the $300m in the bank LNC is already selling at significantly less than cash value.
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A pleasant change to awake to good news.
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-348.pdf
The sp hit a high of 1.84, and is currently trading at 1.81.
In different times I'm sure the sp would have climbed much higher.
They have discovered hydro carbons in one of the three wells.
However two of the wells came up dry.
It's interesting that the good news has been released at the same time as the negative.
It's also interesting that just a few days ago, some very large trades were made.
Anyway let's hope this news can act as a positive catalyst for the company, and it's share holders.
LNC holder
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-348.pdf
The sp hit a high of 1.84, and is currently trading at 1.81.
In different times I'm sure the sp would have climbed much higher.
They have discovered hydro carbons in one of the three wells.
However two of the wells came up dry.
It's interesting that the good news has been released at the same time as the negative.
It's also interesting that just a few days ago, some very large trades were made.
Anyway let's hope this news can act as a positive catalyst for the company, and it's share holders.
LNC holder
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Looks like Lucky Paul was RIGHT when he prognosticated that NC was sitting on a huge oil find and were going to buy back their shares while they were so cheap !! (well almost... )
I noticed that LNC did buy 830,00 shares on Monday as part of its buyback. Seems as if the top prices for share buyback will be $1.91.
As for the thousands of acres of shale oil.... Certainly interesting but it will be even more interesting to see if it can be economically extracted. What will be the cost of production ? Will it ever make economic or environmental sense . (I could see some formidable environmental issues with this project.)
And as Doggie pointed out the other significant news noted in the story was that the two drills to date have been dusters. No oil, no gas all tight.
But hey at least it's on the way up and it can't hurt to have established the shale oil deposits. All potentially adds to LNC energy reserves
http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc
http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/app...te.ac?get_prices=Get+prices+&+charts&code=lnc
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How big could this shale oil deposit be ? These are strictly back of envelope figures but offer some analysis.
According to Peter Bond the size of the deposit suggests around 200billion tonnes of shale.
The analysis suggest between 25 -45 litres of oil per ton of shale. Say 32lit.
200billion x 32lit = 6.4 trillion litres of oil. At 160litres of oil p/barrel we see 40bboe
Now reduce by a factor of 10 and we would still see 4bboe
All very academic until it's actually properly assessed.
According to Peter Bond the size of the deposit suggests around 200billion tonnes of shale.
The analysis suggest between 25 -45 litres of oil per ton of shale. Say 32lit.
200billion x 32lit = 6.4 trillion litres of oil. At 160litres of oil p/barrel we see 40bboe
Now reduce by a factor of 10 and we would still see 4bboe
All very academic until it's actually properly assessed.
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Are we talking about oil pumped (in the conventional manner) from shale rock?
Or are we talking about mining actual oil shale and processing it to extract oil?
If it's the latter then (1) the resource is incredibly abundant globally and (2) even the likes of ExxonMobil have spent a fortune trying to use it only to fail to come up with a method that is profitable, safe and environmentally acceptable. (Oil can certainly be extracted, but not at a profit and/or without creating mayhem in the process).
Or are we talking about mining actual oil shale and processing it to extract oil?
If it's the latter then (1) the resource is incredibly abundant globally and (2) even the likes of ExxonMobil have spent a fortune trying to use it only to fail to come up with a method that is profitable, safe and environmentally acceptable. (Oil can certainly be extracted, but not at a profit and/or without creating mayhem in the process).
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Dead right Smurf. Same issues I thought of.
Only comment that can throw some light on the situation was an observation in the report that suggested the oil extraction/processing could be done underground.
But we can't have an informed discussion without adequately understanding the environment and cost issues.
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Ah ha! I get no pleasure from my conspiracy theory being slightly correct especially as I exited all of my remaining Linc stock at $1.88 and $1.80 last week. At least it proves companies do NOT have to release news as soon as it is known and can have some choice over when, I assume if they can control any leaks! Does anyone know what the rules really are on news releases??
The oil shale was good news and even made the news ticker on Bloomberg just now.
Being an IT man by profession and NOT understanding the details I forwarded the news release to Greg, an Australian friend of mine with over 35 years in the oil business. I believe I am correct in saying he advises oil companies on take-over targets so should know what he is talking about re oil finds/potential etc.
These are his comments (as I said, I am in no position to comment on them) on the Linc RNS.
As I said I am now no longer a Linc stock holder but will still follow it with interest. I had been a holder for over 5 years and originally got in at 66c before those lovely months when it headed up, almost daily, to above $5.10. What a ride that was? I then rode it back down to $1 after the 2008 crash (Mr Stupid with no stop losses and too much faith I was).
All in all our relationship has been mixed with good and bad times but to be honest, she turned into a bit of a bitch in the end!
Anyway I wish you all good luck, I am off to buy lots of short ETFs
I get no pleasure from my conspiracy theory being slightly correct especially as I exited all of my remaining Linc stock at $1.88 and $1.80 last week. At least it proves companies do NOT have to release news as soon as it is known and can have some choice over when, I assume if they can control any leaks! Does anyone know what the rules really are on news releases??The oil shale was good news and even made the news ticker on Bloomberg just now.
Being an IT man by profession and NOT understanding the details I forwarded the news release to Greg, an Australian friend of mine with over 35 years in the oil business. I believe I am correct in saying he advises oil companies on take-over targets so should know what he is talking about re oil finds/potential etc.
These are his comments (as I said, I am in no position to comment on them) on the Linc RNS.
As I said I am now no longer a Linc stock holder but will still follow it with interest. I had been a holder for over 5 years and originally got in at 66c before those lovely months when it headed up, almost daily, to above $5.10. What a ride that was? I then rode it back down to $1 after the 2008 crash (Mr Stupid with no stop losses and too much faith I was
). All in all our relationship has been mixed with good and bad times but to be honest, she turned into a bit of a bitch in the end!
Anyway I wish you all good luck, I am off to buy lots of short ETFs
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PB certainly sounds convincing, whilst hinting in the following interview that Linc will "slow the program" for the remaining proposed seven wells. Not necessarily inspiring.
www.brr.com.au/event/87022/partner/theaustralian
I assume it wont take long for the experts to determine if this latest discovery warrants
a significant increase in the sp, or if it is indeed "spin".
The lack of volume after the announcement is worrying.
Your comments please
LNC holder
www.brr.com.au/event/87022/partner/theaustralian
I assume it wont take long for the experts to determine if this latest discovery warrants
a significant increase in the sp, or if it is indeed "spin".
The lack of volume after the announcement is worrying.
Your comments please
LNC holder
