LGL - Lihir Gold

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?

In any case the chart looks ok to me, its staying within its channel trend almost right on que. Sure, theres some selling pressure, last week on Thursday and Friday.

Cheers,

I haven't looked at the indicator in detail yet, but I was assuming it was more than a SMA?

Agree it's going up, and will be generally until it confirms a break back through $3.25.

 

[CanOz]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I haven't looked at the indicator in detail yet, but I was assuming it was more than a SMA?

Agree it's going up, and will be generally until it confirms a break back through $3.25.

LOL! SMA stand for "Smart Money Analyser" but i thought the exact same thing when i first saw it too Kennas!

Safe trip home mate.

Cheers,

 

[sails]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

FWIW, I had a look at the SMA indicator over the weekend and noticed that they state it is not so reliable with blue chips, so it will be interesting to see how well it works with LHG. One of the reasons given is that large fund managers do not always enter the depth queue.

Anyway, for more info - http://www.theinsidetrader.com.au/index.php?siteid=1&action=page&page=smartmoneytutorial.html and scroll down to the bottom of the page under the heading "Traps for beginners".

 

[moses]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Will be interesting to see if this indicator works here Moses. Are you going to keep a eye on it and update us if it hold true or not?

Hmmm...well, it didn't hold true for LHG yesterday. The signal was either noise, or at best an expression of the same uncertainty as was raised on this thread. But Monday cleared the uncertainty up and the signal reversed. In short, no good for a prediction in this case.

Mind you...being a blue chip I shouldn't have bothered. But nothing ventured nothing learnt I suppose.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I think you can still pick up most of the SMA's assumptions on any chart. Its just pointing out selling pressure which in turn = supply added to the market right?

Breaking out as we speak... Looks good on big volume.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Breaking out as we speak... Looks good on big volume.

Not sure about the big volume Chops, but it seems pretty clear that above $3.25 was the breakout, next stop will probably be just under $3.50. I'd expect a breather there unless POG has a couple of very good days.

 

[the barry]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Not sure about the big volume Chops, but it seems pretty clear that above $3.25 was the breakout, next stop will probably be just under $3.50. I'd expect a breather there unless POG has a couple of very good days.

Wouldn't there full year results posted tomorrow be the next big catalyst for a move?

 

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

"Talk in the AFR that AngloGold may be looking at a bid for Lihir" - according to 'Marcus Today' report.

If it's going to happen, you'd think that it would have to be soon so as to make any offer look reasonable - there is a risk now that the gold price and therefore LHG will move higher.

Any suggestions as to what a reasonable offer price for Lihir would be?

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Not sure about the big volume Chops,

There was in the first hour and a bit when I wrote it and it run up to 3.43.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

"Talk in the AFR that AngloGold may be looking at a bid for Lihir" - according to 'Marcus Today' report.

If it's going to happen, you'd think that it would have to be soon so as to make any offer look reasonable - there is a risk now that the gold price and therefore LHG will move higher.

Any suggestions as to what a reasonable offer price for Lihir would be?

Average takeover offers are around 30% above the volume weighted average of the previous month. I'm not sure if Marcus Today is a reliable source though, and any rumours need to be supported here.

 

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Average takeover offers are around 30% above the volume weighted average of the previous month. I'm not sure if Marcus Today is a reliable source though, and any rumours need to be supported here.

Havn't seen today's AFR - so can't verify the rumour. Perhaps someone else can. Even then - it's still just a rumour.

 

[vicb]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Can anybody post what was in the AFR or shed some light on the take over rumour.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Can anybody post what was in the AFR or shed some light on the take over rumour.

Was just as posted above, but please be clear, this is pure speculation as far as I can see, and has no real foundation. Please see the ASF policy on 'rumours' at:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5917&highlight=rumours+ASF+policy

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

The track record for the AFR regarding rumours is pretty good (insider knowledge or a privileged leak???) , so at some stage it's a definate possibility, but i don't think whoever makes the first move will be the only bidder. This ones shaping up very similar to the Normandy takeover in that LHG's fundamentals are increasingly being discounted by the market, even after the recent burst higher, so that when a bid does eventuate it will also flush counterbids out into the open with the resulting bidding war.

LHG is at the point where it may be aware that it has to show the market it is prepared to look further than it's flagship operations and expand through aquisitions eg BGF or get eaten up itself at a bargain price. I think 30% is very conservative kennas, if a bidding war erupts.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I think 30% is very conservative kennas, if a bidding war erupts.

Well, I certainly hope so too Dr Doom. But, I was just stating a 'general' perception.

There has been talk in the papers about consolidation in the Aust gold sector for quite some time, and it has just stated to happen I reckon.

LVR taken by PSV
BGF by LHG
AGC by OXR (I think)
SBG taking 10% of BDG

These just in the last few months.

The talk about NCM being taken by a major has been going on since 1956.

It's reasonable to assume LHG would be having the ruler run over it as well IMO, but that's just based on comments on comments on comments made by the media, and by MDs.

 

[Halba]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

OVERVALUED PROSPECTIVE P/E 33 FOR A MINER!!

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

OVERVALUED PROSPECTIVE P/E 33 FOR A MINER!!

Hi halba,
Have a read of this article: here

Admittedly, the hedge book looks pretty bad, but nearly all of the remaining fundamentals look good also. P/E's take a back seat in a takeover. Read the article about gold company P/E's

By the way, where did you gt the P/E figure from, as Comsec have 55?

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Will be interesting to see how LHG responds to the $3.25 support line. Might be determined how POG responds to the $660 support. (just under atm)

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this one today.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this one today.

I've been too busy popping champagne.....

As has been mentioned elsewhere however, the pe is looking high. Not sure why it can maintain it?? Potential growth? Takeover target? Not sure. Comming up to all time high might knock it back a peg or two.