LGL - Lihir Gold

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

My 2c worth on todays very good run. Watching the tape for the afternoon session saw 358 support fade at the finish suggesting tomorrow may be a consolidation day, subject to pog. Comments?.

POG will be the driver I think.

Might depend on how the Iran news is taken in the US in the morning. Looks like it's testing $690 at the moment. If the US market pushes it over tonight, then LHG should hold or even push on. I'd be happy for some consolidation though, it's had a pretty solid run.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I'm not sure this is looking too good. Support has evaporated today with the rest of the market correcting, & I'm not sure gold is going to come to the rescue tonight either as the 'Plunge Protection Team' have capped it from breaking past $690. Maybe bad night in US markets as well (see Bears den post) spilling over to oz tomorrow?

It had a good go at $3.60 but all the ammo was spent yesterday I think?
LHG price action saw $3.48 fail as well today so next stop $340 or $325 maybe?.
Also got sold off with the gold price stable; setting up for another charge later maybe?.

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I've a substanital LONG position in LHG (even more so now BGF merge will happen) ... potential for resistance at the old high is real however I'm treating the recent move out of the trading band as a move into stronger hands .... todays price and volume action not encouraging though !!!

 

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Some traders will have been nervous about a possible double top and may have bailed today, hitting stops, etc. The uptrend is still in tact though and remains so for me until $3.30 is breached (0.618 retracement).

If it had more than five days down it would be a cause for concern.
It's been a fast move up since the breakout and today's retracement is
less than one quater of the move up.

 

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Looks like the commercial gold shorts have won the battle again.
LHG will be probably be hit hard on Monday.
Down nearly 6% in US.
The close below $3.30 yesterday was an ominous sign.
Back to trading the range - until that takeover rumour re-emerges.

 

[pacer]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Time to play me thinks...gone long 8000 today....if it proves upwards tomorrow I may play some more over the next couple of days, potential looks good, gold still bullish and bounced of trend line, Lihir has completed its thermo power upgrade which will save $30 mill per year.

Dyor

 

[CanOz]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

gold still bullish and bounced of trend line,

You turning technical Pacer?

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

LHG has come off since gold fell from $690 highs. Seems these are inextricably linked and should be read in conjunction with each other.

$3.25 should have been support but it failed (as was $660 for gold). Now $3.10 important. It should hold here, if gold holds above $640.

Gold bounced off $640 ish which is support and I equate this to around the $3.10 ish level for LHG.

If gold pushed through $660 then this could see LHG breach $3.25 again. Gold $680 would see LHG $3.50 ish again.

On the down side, gold through $620, LHG through $3.00. Gold $580, LHG $2.75.

I'm basing this all simply of support and resistance lines in both charts.

Also, watch the 200d ma for LHG. That's currently around the $3.00 level. That's normally very good support in a bull market.

Probably interesting to note the dips in the MACD (and of course the sp) over the past year. Pretty regular cycle of ups and downs, and it looks like it's coming into a down. A buying opportunity perhaps.

So, if you are a gold bull and see it heading back towards $700 and beyond, then this might be an opportunity. Gold bear and jump ship!

Having said all the above, bad news from BGF integration and LHG could suffer throwing the LHG/Gold direct correlation out the door. Likewise with particularly bad news from ops on the island, of course. Now, can I sit on the fence a bit more......no.

 

[x2rider]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hey Kennas
With your chart of LHG being so closely linked to that of the gold price is there anyway that you can overlay these two taking into acc. the difference in prices, if you know what I mean.
It could just be something that might be able to be traded as a pairs trade as well
Cheers martin

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hey Kennas
With your chart of LHg being so closely linked to that of the gold price is there anyway that you can overlay these two taking into acc. the diffence in prices ,. If you know what I mean .
It could just be something that might be able to be traded as a pairs trade as well
Cheers martin

Unfortunately, I don't have the capability.

Here's the gold one, if you scroll back and forward you can see the links. It's not perfect, but pretty close, especially from around Oct 06.

 

[pacer]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

You turning technical Pacer?

Are you stalking me Cassie.....lol

Bought another 8000 over the last few days....I use a strange system (range buying I guess you'd call it-not averaging), right now I'm a bit above break even and waiting for the run up if it occours.

Banks will run out of puff selling gold and investors making back some losses over the last 2 days will help also me thinks....there was some worry investors would be selling gold to cover losses in the sharemarket.

The Aussie markets are proving to be rather robust, which is a good sign for longs.

 

[pacer]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Definitely a traders share...$2-300 a day just don't excite me...NCM pays better

 

[mildew79]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

lhg balance book shall look much more attractive ahead thanks to reduction in costs (thermo power upgrade) and increasing gold price. gold likely to stay on the rise imo. expecting 900 - 1000 us within 6 - 12 months.

reasons:

technical:

spot price recently broke out of a triangle chart formation. triangle formations after an advance are usually a bullish sign and represent continuation patterns

fundamental:

many reasons (i shall keep these to myself. dont want to make it a 5 pager)

lhg is a rare occurance in their mine actually has more capacity than they can move. literally sits in piles waiting.

would love to see them confront this in the future

very attractive leverage advantages on this. very predictable support and resistance levels. 100% to be made imo at very low risk

also check ogd. hedge prices released over the next couple of years. if gold does get to 900 us as i believe it will ogd could prove very interesting and profitable. 100% + and good leverage to increase this profitability substantially higher

 

[rederob]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

mildew
It is not common for POG to spend over a year in the (consolidation) wilderness, so I reckon we have to be close to another breakout.
Typically the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout.
Lihir is exceptionally well placed to take advantage of a rising POG and with costs that are reducing - against a market experiencing rising costs - it will an "outperformer".
I would be looking at more LHG on any retrace below its 200day ma.

 

[haemitite]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

fundamental:

many reasons (i shall keep these to myself. dont want to make it a 5 pager)

Can you pls expand on this - interested to hear your views from a fundamental viewpoint

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I'm holding quite a bit of this, but very concerned of the pe. Interested in anyone elses concerns on this, or perspective. Cheers.

 

[haemitite]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I'm holding quite a bit of this, but very concerned of the pe. Interested in anyone elses concerns on this, or perspective. Cheers.

Same boat.

I bought in at $1.02 in 2005, but at current levels I'm finding holding on now hard to justify, even with the nice cost reduction kicking in with the geothermal power supply. The future year forecast PEs are hefty.

On the plus side its a massive gold resource, and I'm happy that the the PNG sovereignity risk has been managed as well as it could be with community programs etc. The downside is the seismic activity risk, this could be savage. The Ballarat transaction may have actually increased risk given the nature of that gold resource

I'm a lukewarm holder as I am with OXR, mainly as I don't fancy the 22.5% tax on capital gain. Then again there isn't too much else to put the sales proceeds in, other than continue to work on being a top 20 holder in PMM

If it kicks up much further towards $4 I'll either sell or buy Puts. Willing - if not keen - to hear if others think there is further upside to be factored in

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

If it kicks up much further towards $4 I'll either sell or buy Puts. Willing - if not keen - to hear if others think there is further upside to be factored in

Perhaps gold appreciation is factored in? I haven't read too much analysis lately saying POG is going down. If POG heads back to $700 + then we could possibly see those levels but I agree with the BGF risks. As far as country risk goes, I think it's more the location risk that worries me. One decent earthquake and disaster. A mudslide on one road can put them out of production.

At the moment $3.25 ish equates to about $660 POG. Seems to be tracking well. Both LHG and gold have been generally climbing since Sep/Oct 06. Although, it's more like an ascending triangle really. $3.15-25 ish has proved strong resistance.

With Iran still teasing the rest of the world into bombing their nuclear facilities I think the Geopolitics-Iran-Oil-Inflation-Gold link could keep gold going higher, and LHG along with it.

So, I'm still holding for now. I'll probably take some off the table if it gets back around all time highs.

 

[mildew79]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

mildew
It is not common for POG to spend over a year in the (consolidation) wilderness, so I reckon we have to be close to another breakout.
Typically the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout.
Lihir is exceptionally well placed to take advantage of a rising POG and with costs that are reducing - against a market experiencing rising costs - it will an "outperformer".

my thoughts exactly rederob

 

[mildew79]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Can you pls expand on this - interested to hear your views from a fundamental viewpoint

ill get online tonight or tomoz when i have a bit more time