LGL - Lihir Gold

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Looks like it will pull back a bit today. A stronger dollar may be a problem for the gold uptrend - along with Bernake speeches this week.

Jim Sinclair writes today:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising. Gold is off slightly while gold shares remain in the tank.

We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.

There is no question in my mind we will trade up to and possibly beyond $800 which in retrospect will be seen to have been part of this upwards move now.

I would tend to take a contrarian approach to gold. I would under no basis chase the price of gold up as a buyer - I prefer to buy gold on reaction. I do not buy strength. We have a perfect indicator now in the Platform for if gold is to deny the shares it needs only to remain above that level.

We are going for three closes above the Platform.

Be careful in your trading activities as Hedge Fund and Political readers have a perversity in their trading actions. Please do not chase strength with buys. Here we buy weakness. Sit still on breakouts and sell strength, TA guided.

My strategy is to hold my speculative trading gold position, stopped slightly below the Platform.

To Investors we are going to $750 – $887.50 and $1650."

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.

Hi Jadefox,

How do you assess that we are in a positive dollar market? To my estimation even at even at the 1.30 level the EUR/USD cross rate is at near all time EUR high.

 

[Jadefox]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Gorilla,

I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.

That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising."

I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.

 

[scsl]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

This was in The Age Investor liftout on Sunday:

[Fat Prophets] co-director Angus Geddes likes Lihir Gold, which he expects to double in price to $7.30 this year

 

[IFocus]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.

 

[haemitite]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.

For those who place much emphasis on charts perhaps

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Finally through the resistance at 3.30. Now buyers are outstripping sellers... and we could see some movement now.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.

Why do you interpret this as "far from bullish"?

 

[IFocus]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Gorilla,

The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.

Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.

LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.

Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday

Focus

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Gorilla,

The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.

Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.

LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.

Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday

Focus

I'm thinking it was more consolidation after the initial breakout. Considering the price seemed to be capped and manipulated all throughout today, I'm thinking it was consolidation.

You just can't have the sort of announcements that LHG had without eventually having a positive impace on the share price. Big volume at the end of the day, a very bullish close. I wonder how long this stock is going to be kept down for before it goes crazy...

 

[IFocus]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Chops

Yes today LHG fired, nice break out and full steam ahead with nice volume so much for my short term outlook yesterday.

Focus

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Chops

Yes today LHG fired, nice break out and full steam ahead with nice volume so much for my short term outlook yesterday.

I understand the previous analysis. If the rumour about the large short position is true, I'd say the big players were keeping it steady so they could get out of it.

 

[the barry]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hi Gorilla,

I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.

That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising."

I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.

Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.

The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...

 

[the barry]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...

Sorry, im knew to the whole share game, but if someone was short and the share price went up today, who was doing the manipulation and for what purpose? Wouldn't they want to manipulate the share price down to cover their position? Its just i hold lhg and am interested in your thoughts.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Sorry, im knew to the whole share game, but if someone was short and the share price went up today, who was doing the manipulation and for what purpose? Wouldn't they want to manipulate the share price down to cover their position? Its just i hold lhg and am interested in your thoughts.

If they were part of an institution for instance, they may put large numbers of shares on the sell side, to effect the ratio, even if they are unlikely to be sold. It may not reverse the price (as with LHG today, buying was very strong), but it may limit the damage, and give time to reverse positions.

 

[Kauri]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Approved (ASX) net Short Sale positions as at end of day 13-Feb-2007


LHG....LIHIR GOLD LIMITED....Short .vol 21,295,834....Short% 1.65%...

 

[reece55]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hey Kauri...

Is there anywhere else apart from the ASX site that this information can be acquired. I just haven't been able to find historical data for % short sold - wanted to use it in a model.

By the way, wouldn't want to be the chimp holding this short sell - not a happy trade I wouldn't have thought!

Cheers
Reece

 

[Kauri]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Hey Kauri...

Is there anywhere else apart from the ASX site that this information can be acquired. I just haven't been able to find historical data for % short sold - wanted to use it in a model.

By the way, wouldn't want to be the chimp holding this short sell - not a happy trade I wouldn't have thought!

Cheers
Reece

Reece..
It's the only place Ive found.... don't know how accurate it is, but is interesting sometimes. I had 6 months of it saved labourisly into a spreadsheet to see if it was usefull in trading but it dissapeared into a black hole after a computer meltdown...
Cheers...Kauri

 

[michael_selway]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Reece..
It's the only place Ive found.... don't know how accurate it is, but is interesting sometimes. I had 6 months of it saved labourisly into a spreadsheet to see if it was usefull in trading but it dissapeared into a black hole after a computer meltdown...
Cheers...Kauri

Not bad, I wonder if gold will ever crash?

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-07 11.9 27.7 126.7%
Year Ending 30-12-08 13.6 24.3 14.3%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 5.2 11.9 13.6 12.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 2.6 5.1

thx

MS