Jadefox said:We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.
[Fat Prophets] co-director Angus Geddes likes Lihir Gold, which he expects to double in price to $7.30 this year
For those who place much emphasis on charts perhapsIFocus said:The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.
IFocus said:The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.
I'm thinking it was more consolidation after the initial breakout. Considering the price seemed to be capped and manipulated all throughout today, I'm thinking it was consolidation.IFocus said:Hi Gorilla,
The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.
Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.
LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.
Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday
Focus
I understand the previous analysis. If the rumour about the large short position is true, I'd say the big players were keeping it steady so they could get out of it.IFocus said:Hi Chops
Yes today LHG fired, nice break out and full steam ahead with nice volume so much for my short term outlook yesterday.
Jadefox said:Hi Gorilla,
I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.
That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:
"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising."
I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.
The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...the barry said:Can you please elaborate on the large short commercial short position. I find it hard to believe that with the current rise in the share price and the rising gold price that anyone commercial would have a current large short position.
chops_a_must said:The SP was being manipulated quite clearly today. It makes sense to me...
If they were part of an institution for instance, they may put large numbers of shares on the sell side, to effect the ratio, even if they are unlikely to be sold. It may not reverse the price (as with LHG today, buying was very strong), but it may limit the damage, and give time to reverse positions.the barry said:Sorry, im knew to the whole share game, but if someone was short and the share price went up today, who was doing the manipulation and for what purpose? Wouldn't they want to manipulate the share price down to cover their position? Its just i hold lhg and am interested in your thoughts.
reece55 said:Hey Kauri...
Is there anywhere else apart from the ASX site that this information can be acquired. I just haven't been able to find historical data for % short sold - wanted to use it in a model.
By the way, wouldn't want to be the chimp holding this short sell - not a happy trade I wouldn't have thought!
Cheers
Reece
Kauri said:Reece..
It's the only place Ive found.... don't know how accurate it is, but is interesting sometimes. I had 6 months of it saved labourisly into a spreadsheet to see if it was usefull in trading but it dissapeared into a black hole after a computer meltdown...
Cheers...Kauri
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?