LGL - Lihir Gold

[chops_a_must]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

There's some POG spt at $600 and LHG has hit 200 d ma and also approaching some upward support line. Not much though. SO, I think they are related to some degree. Perhaps I'm just seeing what I want. (holding - last bought in around $2.75)

Ah well, it's not on commsec's short list, so that solves my problem.

 

[annalivia]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Like most gold stocks, Lihir's share price has taken a breather in recent months. This follows two years of firm gains during which prices more than quadrupled, hitting an all-time high of $3.64 during May. Encouragingly, consolidative pauses within long term upward trends commonly provide a base for the eventual resumption of the underlying trend. Patience my friends.

 

[porkpie324]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I have never traded LHR but looking at the chart the sp price since May has oscilated between 2.70:3.20, making LHR an excellent CFD trader. LHR has a big resource base and a reasonably priced gold extraction so I have placed LHR in my CFD trading watch list. porkpie

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Well that wasn't as bad as I thought it would be, with LHG holding up reasonably well, closing at $2.87, low of $2.85. Also, POG is clawing it's way back again, see if it holds in NY tonight. Now $609, up $4.10. I think 'the manipulators' saw an opportunity to bury gold along with other commodities (more of a currency these day's).

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.

I've got some mixed signals on this:

Broken down through 200d ma at about $2.90. Bearish
Broken through bottom of BB. A trading buy
MACD diverging going down through the signal line. Bearish
Oversold on the Slow Stochastic. Trading buy
Oversold on RSI but hasn't started to turn. ??

The sideways consolidation won't really be broken until it's broken $2.50 where there should be a last line of support. (high Jan, low Jul 06)

Interesting that gold was steady but goldies came off. I think the market is being cautious and locking in some profits. Seems to be some gneral uncertainty out there.....

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

KCN got slammed today as well. As with LHG there wasn't excessive volume either.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.

This could be healthy if it doesn't get caught up with the rest of the market too much, as I think the POG has with commodities. Needs time to resolve any short term weakness and allow fundamentals to re-gain the steering wheel. I noticed a story yesterday that the Indians are big buyers again at these levels, and open interest is leaving the POG wide open for a big re-bound ie underweight longs. Wouldn't take much to move POG higher from here.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.

I hadn't heard that before. I've used 200d for a little while which I have found to be a good support line normally. I've seen other people use 90d ma, but it's a bit more hit and miss. (would like to do a better study of the best psychological ma spt line!)

This is the chart with 300d sma, which is still above my drop dead $2.50 line.

 

[Ken]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

kennas

On 10 occassions I count. LHG has had a fall since its big run up.

It looks a volatile stock.

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

kennas

On 10 occassions I count. LHG has had a fall since its big run up.

It looks a volatile stock.

Yes, everything goes up and down. Most commods have whipsawed. Not for the faint hearted. IMO it's still going up until it breaks down through $2.65 ish. Below that, its troubling.....

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Lihir just ann they have added 4.4 m oz au to their reserves. This is probably more than double what most mines have as their entire resourse!

They now have a tiny 23.6m oz au in reserves.

Gold back up to $640, might be an ok day for LHG.

Young Gun's CFDs on this will be looking ok.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I expect to see some action here soon re a takeover at these prices. With the upgrade, LHG is in the bargain category now, looking very attractive to the big boys.

 

[Steveo]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Thoughts on their PE of around 58?

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Thoughts on their PE of around 58?

Is damn high! Reason being they've been ramping up to full production at Lihir for some time and are still not really there. So, the future earnings are factored into the sp, along with an increased future POG. It's justified if gold goes to $700 and beyond. Maybe.

 

[porkpie324]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

On rapidly expanding co a PE of 58 is nothing unusual OXR was on a PE higher than that at one time, what will tell is that the companies results reflect their projections, anyway I have opened a small long pos in LHG today. porkpie

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I assume the main factors any predator would be looking at is the resources and cost to produce, and sovereign risk, ie look at NEM's problems in Indonesia & Chile. LHG look pretty good for the first 2 and, being on an island, appears ok for sovereign risk. The main risk to the operations is volcanic activity. 23.6M oz's very attractive.

 

[Dr Doom]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.

Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
• Construction projects close to commissioning
• +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
• Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
• Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
• On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007

Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.

 

[porkpie324]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

I hope your right doomy, still have my pos in LHR, up nicely on the an today, porkpie

 

[Sean K]

Re: LHG - Lihir Gold

Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.

Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
• Construction projects close to commissioning
• +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
• Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
• Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
• On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007

Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.

I think LHG are going to have to keep acquiring other junior/mid goldies, or they will become a TO target. The big producers have stated they are after advanced projects with over 2m oz au, and LHG have over 20m. The sovereign risk has been an issue, but it ´s been stated for years with no issue ever arrising. Perhaps NCM and LHG could merge to create a great Aussie goldie! They ´d have close to 80m oz au together.