The Govt is pushing for an increase in the basic wage, so the last thing they want is inflation dropping.My guess is things will get "interesting" in the market once the masses realise this.
It's one of those things that'll take far longer to occur than logic says it ought but I expect it'll be real quick once it finally dawns as to the true nature of the situation.
Can Phill Lowe quote you?Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut
I like your enthusiasm.Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut. Monthly inflation is already in the band.
See the video I posted.
Political stuff is silly and a way to make bad decisions.
I disagree, inflation will be a good 5% above rba rate by the end of the year:Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut. Monthly inflation is already in the band.
See the video I posted.
Political stuff is silly and a way to make bad decisions.
The Govt is pushing for an increase in the basic wage, so the last thing they want is inflation dropping.
The energy transition is going to cost, the subs are going to cost, the housing is going to cost, the NDIS, is going to cost, they already have a trillion dollars of debt from covid.
Like the Govt wants inflation to drop.
So those on the poverty basic wage should pay for everyone elses excesses?
How did you come up with that?So those on the poverty basic wage should pay for everyone elses excesses?
I believe it is more the gov expenses which need a shake up:How did you come up with that?
I said the last thing the Govt want is inflation dropping, I've always said the only way the Govt can increase its income is by increasing taxes or increasing inflation which in turn increases the tax take.
I would rather see the basic wage increased, than a tax cut for the wealthy, so how you derived your opinion is beyond me.
The narrative which is driving public opinion, is building up the public expectation that there will be serious interest rate cuts, I think they need to settle it down there is a hell of a lot that needs Government money.
Also as @Belli says and I've also said, the whole tax system needs an overhaul, it is no longer fit for purpose as it is.
I would love to share their enthusiasm.Hopes for a rate cut in early 2025 are rising, with Wednesday’s inflation data tipped to beat RBA expectations.
Economists have predicted a slight rise in headline inflation, but believe the more important trimmed mean inflation rate - which strips out more volatile costs like electricity and petrol - will fall, and the number will come in well under the central bank’s forecast.
As a result, economists have raised optimism for a rate cut as early as February.
NAB economist Taylor Nugent forecasts headline inflation will rise from 2.1 per cent in October to 2.4 per cent in November when the official figures are released on Wednesday.
He wrote in an economic note the November figures would firm up expectations for upcoming rate cuts, with trimmed mean inflation – the RBA’s preferred measurement – falling from 3.5 per cent in October to 3.1 per cent.
While the figure is above the 2 to 3 per cent target set by the RBA, it is well below the central bank’s expectation of 3.5 per cent.
“The optics of December quarter inflation (due on January 29) will be better than the substance, but even so inflation progress looks on track to outpace the RBA’s November caution,” Mr Nugent said.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects headline inflation to rise to 2.3 per cent, while trimmed mean inflation will likely fall to 3.3 per cent.
Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said the November data would provide critical updates on housing inflation, with housing costs, electricity and food prices likely to fluctuate.
“In particular, we will be looking out for the updates on rents, dwellings, electricity, gas and other household fuels. Due to the increase in government assistance, rents rose just 0.1 per cent in September and fell 0.3 per cent in October, while the ABS noted that rents would have lifted 0.5 per cent in September and October had it not been for the increase in assistance,” he said.
depends on IF an election is in the near future ( within six months )However, I am somewhat more negative on the chances of a Feb rate cut.
As immigration is tightening then this leads to labour tightening, particularly as there seems to be so many older people retiring lately.Tomorrows CPI data will be out tomorrow, and people are eagerly awaiting for dighns of lower inflation which will increase the chances of a rate cut.
The pundits all think that although headline inflation will be up, underlying inflation will continue its downward path, which gives them hope for rate cuts.
I would love to share their enthusiasm.
However, I am somewhat more negative on the chances of a Feb rate cut.
In her last statement to the media, teh RBA chair said she wanted to see some easing in in the strong employ,ent data.
The December ABS employment data showed an increase in hours worked per employee, underemployment rate decreased, and the number of employed persons went up up by a net 56,300, although the number of full time employees went down while the number of part time employees surged.
According to the Australian HR Institute survey of members, most businesses seem optimistic about requiring further labour numbers in the near future.
Mick
View attachment 192086
18% fall for electricity??Headline inflation came in at 2.3%, below the majority of forecasters.
View attachment 192143
Looking at the three months that make up the December quarter, overall, each month increased over the previous years corresponding month.
View attachment 192144
Seasonally adjusted, CPI went up, and like the trimmed mean, each month in the qurter had a higher increase than the prvious month.
Question is, will it all be sufficient for the RBA to lop rates??
Mick
View attachment 192145
For me-18% fall for electricity??
Is it not just the taxpayer paid bonuses offsetting the rises?
Is electricity nearly 20% cheaper today than a year ago for your bakery?
with figures like that...
The quarterly trimmed mean inflation figure of 0.5% was below economists expectation of 0.6%.Headline inflation came in at 2.3%, below the majority of forecasters.
View attachment 192143
Looking at the three months that make up the December quarter, overall, each month increased over the previous years corresponding month.
View attachment 192144
Seasonally adjusted, CPI went up, and like the trimmed mean, each month in the qurter had a higher increase than the prvious month.
Question is, will it all be sufficient for the RBA to lop rates??
Mick
View attachment 192145
Good point. from their website.18% fall for electricity??
Is it not just the taxpayer paid bonuses offsetting the rises?
Is electricity nearly 20% cheaper today than a year ago for your bakery?
with figures like that...
No problem, i do not blame youGood point. from their website.
Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates reduce electricity bills
Electricity prices fell 9.9 per cent in the December quarter and 25.2 per cent in the past 12 months.
The introduction of the 2024-25 Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) rebates from July 2024 were the main driver for the fall in electricity prices this quarter.
Households in all States and Territories received their second instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate this quarter. Households in some States and Territories did not receive their first instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate in the September quarter due to differences in the roll out schedule. The fall this quarter was driven by these households receiving two $75 instalments of the Commonwealth rebate in the December quarter.
Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen by 0.2 per cent in the December 2024 quarter.
The following graph shows the impact the rebates have had on the Electricity series in the CPI since the September 2023 quarter.
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