Latest Inflation Figures

[sptrawler]

My guess is things will get "interesting" in the market once the masses realise this.

It's one of those things that'll take far longer to occur than logic says it ought but I expect it'll be real quick once it finally dawns as to the true nature of the situation.

The Govt is pushing for an increase in the basic wage, so the last thing they want is inflation dropping.
The energy transition is going to cost, the subs are going to cost, the housing is going to cost, the NDIS, is going to cost, they already have a trillion dollars of debt from covid.

Like the Govt wants inflation to drop.

 

[Knobby22]

Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut. Monthly inflation is already in the band.
See the video I posted.
Political stuff is silly and a way to make bad decisions.

 

[sptrawler]

Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut

Can Phill Lowe quote you?

 

[TimeISmoney]

Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut. Monthly inflation is already in the band.
See the video I posted.
Political stuff is silly and a way to make bad decisions.

I like your enthusiasm.

 

[qldfrog]

Inflation is dropping. Rate cuts in June along with tax cut. Monthly inflation is already in the band.
See the video I posted.
Political stuff is silly and a way to make bad decisions.

I disagree, inflation will be a good 5% above rba rate by the end of the year:
Energy will get crazy and worse: renewable are ultra expensive, oil prospecting is hindered and half of the world is still growing strong ( roughly India China)
EU and us bankrupting themself on endless printing to send weapons to ukraine and seem to forget global warming risk there lol.
You seem to believe we can not have a f***ed economy and inflation, mostly true under benign condition but I remember the early 80s..inflation was rampant, economy abysmal employment terrible...
It could be good for Australia as a mining and agricultural products producers but not if we artificially put ourself out of business thru net zero and programmed destruction of farming.
Nickel all over again in IO, coal and beef wool
Buy PM, o/s non woke miners and save you money in land, RE and assets.
Probably some wise asx stocks
Time will tell
Real inflation at rba rate plus 5% in early 2025 in Australia .

 

[qldfrog]

A good example:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/sustainability/pm-albanese-to-announce-1bn-program-to-build-more-solar-in-australia/news-story/0c3afc838b64ea84de703e1478d3a8b3

So 1 billion from government, fully printed from our deficit, using the government efficiency rate will probably cost twice that: submission to get the money, taxation and PS workers to get the money, the debt, the interest on the bonds
2 billions...for basically zip and lower overall productivity and a gift to China of at least half a billion....
Inflation is a given....

 

[IFocus]

The Govt is pushing for an increase in the basic wage, so the last thing they want is inflation dropping.
The energy transition is going to cost, the subs are going to cost, the housing is going to cost, the NDIS, is going to cost, they already have a trillion dollars of debt from covid.

Like the Govt wants inflation to drop.

So those on the poverty basic wage should pay for everyone elses excesses?

 

[Belli]

So those on the poverty basic wage should pay for everyone elses excesses?

Like it or not, whether it hurts us individually or not, I do feel there is pressure building to restructure taxation and move it away from relying on taxing personal income. What form it will take I don't know but I am getting the nagging feeling it will happen eventually.

 

[sptrawler]

So those on the poverty basic wage should pay for everyone elses excesses?

How did you come up with that?

I said the last thing the Govt want is inflation dropping, I've always said the only way the Govt can increase its income is by increasing taxes or increasing inflation which in turn increases the tax take.

I would rather see the basic wage increased, than a tax cut for the wealthy, so how you derived your opinion is beyond me.

The narrative which is driving public opinion, is building up the public expectation that there will be serious interest rate cuts, I think they need to settle it down there is a hell of a lot that needs Government money.

Also as @Belli says and I've also said, the whole tax system needs an overhaul, it is no longer fit for purpose as it is.

 

[qldfrog]

How did you come up with that?

I said the last thing the Govt want is inflation dropping, I've always said the only way the Govt can increase its income is by increasing taxes or increasing inflation which in turn increases the tax take.

I would rather see the basic wage increased, than a tax cut for the wealthy, so how you derived your opinion is beyond me.

The narrative which is driving public opinion, is building up the public expectation that there will be serious interest rate cuts, I think they need to settle it down there is a hell of a lot that needs Government money.

Also as @Belli says and I've also said, the whole tax system needs an overhaul, it is no longer fit for purpose as it is.

I believe it is more the gov expenses which need a shake up:
useless nukes, useless fighters, subsidies for lolly pop green schemes, PS workforce and then add NDIS, pension and welfare / indigenous rorts..
Slash thru and there is plenty to fund a proper non nanny state nation.
put a bit of tax parity with multinational schemes (Exon , google and cie) vs local firms....
and people will have money left to spend and make it worthwhile working.
I personally believe it is not worth working in Australia under the current regime.
So either welfare or expatriation if you can be worth something on the real world market
But indeed I think inflation (hyper inflation in the real world) is on the menu for quite a while

 

[mullokintyre]

Does the above look like inflation is being tamed?
How long do we have to wait until the experts admit that the transitory story was bullsh1t?
And what about the story that inflation was due to a suuply side logistics problem?
What is the one consistent activity that has been practiced by CB,s and governments everywhere.
Monetary stimulation.
mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Tomorrows CPI data will be out tomorrow, and people are eagerly awaiting for dighns of lower inflation which will increase the chances of a rate cut.
The pundits all think that although headline inflation will be up, underlying inflation will continue its downward path, which gives them hope for rate cuts.

Hopes for a rate cut in early 2025 are rising, with Wednesday’s inflation data tipped to beat RBA expectations.
Economists have predicted a slight rise in headline inflation, but believe the more important trimmed mean inflation rate - which strips out more volatile costs like electricity and petrol - will fall, and the number will come in well under the central bank’s forecast.

As a result, economists have raised optimism for a rate cut as early as February.
NAB economist Taylor Nugent forecasts headline inflation will rise from 2.1 per cent in October to 2.4 per cent in November when the official figures are released on Wednesday.

He wrote in an economic note the November figures would firm up expectations for upcoming rate cuts, with trimmed mean inflation – the RBA’s preferred measurement – falling from 3.5 per cent in October to 3.1 per cent.

While the figure is above the 2 to 3 per cent target set by the RBA, it is well below the central bank’s expectation of 3.5 per cent.

“The optics of December quarter inflation (due on January 29) will be better than the substance, but even so inflation progress looks on track to outpace the RBA’s November caution,” Mr Nugent said.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects headline inflation to rise to 2.3 per cent, while trimmed mean inflation will likely fall to 3.3 per cent.

Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk said the November data would provide critical updates on housing inflation, with housing costs, electricity and food prices likely to fluctuate.

“In particular, we will be looking out for the updates on rents, dwellings, electricity, gas and other household fuels. Due to the increase in government assistance, rents rose just 0.1 per cent in September and fell 0.3 per cent in October, while the ABS noted that rents would have lifted 0.5 per cent in September and October had it not been for the increase in assistance,” he said.

I would love to share their enthusiasm.
However, I am somewhat more negative on the chances of a Feb rate cut.
In her last statement to the media, teh RBA chair said she wanted to see some easing in in the strong employ,ent data.
The December ABS employment data showed an increase in hours worked per employee, underemployment rate decreased, and the number of employed persons went up up by a net 56,300, although the number of full time employees went down while the number of part time employees surged.
According to the Australian HR Institute survey of members, most businesses seem optimistic about requiring further labour numbers in the near future.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

However, I am somewhat more negative on the chances of a Feb rate cut.

depends on IF an election is in the near future ( within six months )

lost faith in the RBA ( completely ) in November 2018 , when they lost their last chance to retain credibility

to be honest i only care about the market reaction these days ( and if i can take advantage of the reaction )

 

[Knobby22]

Tomorrows CPI data will be out tomorrow, and people are eagerly awaiting for dighns of lower inflation which will increase the chances of a rate cut.
The pundits all think that although headline inflation will be up, underlying inflation will continue its downward path, which gives them hope for rate cuts.

I would love to share their enthusiasm.
However, I am somewhat more negative on the chances of a Feb rate cut.
In her last statement to the media, teh RBA chair said she wanted to see some easing in in the strong employ,ent data.
The December ABS employment data showed an increase in hours worked per employee, underemployment rate decreased, and the number of employed persons went up up by a net 56,300, although the number of full time employees went down while the number of part time employees surged.
According to the Australian HR Institute survey of members, most businesses seem optimistic about requiring further labour numbers in the near future.
Mick

View attachment 192086

As immigration is tightening then this leads to labour tightening, particularly as there seems to be so many older people retiring lately.

Also seems to be more youth not entering the labour market. Staying home and playing computer games. I have a friend who son is doing this and he is lost on what to do.

I think you are right and they won't cut but I don't know if their reasoning is totally correct.

 

[mullokintyre]

Headline inflation came in at 2.3%, below the majority of forecasters.

Looking at the three months that make up the December quarter, overall, each month increased over the previous years corresponding month.

Seasonally adjusted, CPI went up, and like the trimmed mean, each month in the qurter had a higher increase than the prvious month.
Question is, will it all be sufficient for the RBA to lop rates??
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

Headline inflation came in at 2.3%, below the majority of forecasters.
View attachment 192143
Looking at the three months that make up the December quarter, overall, each month increased over the previous years corresponding month.
View attachment 192144
Seasonally adjusted, CPI went up, and like the trimmed mean, each month in the qurter had a higher increase than the prvious month.
Question is, will it all be sufficient for the RBA to lop rates??
Mick
View attachment 192145

18% fall for electricity??
Is it not just the taxpayer paid bonuses offsetting the rises?
Is electricity nearly 20% cheaper today than a year ago for your bakery?
with figures like that...

 

[houtman]

18% fall for electricity??
Is it not just the taxpayer paid bonuses offsetting the rises?
Is electricity nearly 20% cheaper today than a year ago for your bakery?
with figures like that...

For me-
Daily charge 1yr ago - $0.503, Now $0.523

Unit price exGST 1 yr ago - $0.255, Now $0.265

So a 4% increase in the underlying charges for the 12 months, but the latest has a magic $75 rebate.

Bananas really.

 

[Knobby22]

Headline inflation came in at 2.3%, below the majority of forecasters.
View attachment 192143
Looking at the three months that make up the December quarter, overall, each month increased over the previous years corresponding month.
View attachment 192144
Seasonally adjusted, CPI went up, and like the trimmed mean, each month in the qurter had a higher increase than the prvious month.
Question is, will it all be sufficient for the RBA to lop rates??
Mick
View attachment 192145

The quarterly trimmed mean inflation figure of 0.5% was below economists expectation of 0.6%.
The headline inflation was only 0.2% for the quarter.
Gee , it must be close. it looks pretty safely in the band to me.

 

[Knobby22]

18% fall for electricity??
Is it not just the taxpayer paid bonuses offsetting the rises?
Is electricity nearly 20% cheaper today than a year ago for your bakery?
with figures like that...

Good point. from their website.

Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates reduce electricity bills​

Electricity prices fell 9.9 per cent in the December quarter and 25.2 per cent in the past 12 months.
The introduction of the 2024-25 Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) rebates from July 2024 were the main driver for the fall in electricity prices this quarter.
Households in all States and Territories received their second instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate this quarter. Households in some States and Territories did not receive their first instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate in the September quarter due to differences in the roll out schedule. The fall this quarter was driven by these households receiving two $75 instalments of the Commonwealth rebate in the December quarter.
Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen by 0.2 per cent in the December 2024 quarter.
The following graph shows the impact the rebates have had on the Electricity series in the CPI since the September 2023 quarter.

 

[qldfrog]

Good point. from their website.

Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates reduce electricity bills​

Electricity prices fell 9.9 per cent in the December quarter and 25.2 per cent in the past 12 months.
The introduction of the 2024-25 Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) rebates from July 2024 were the main driver for the fall in electricity prices this quarter.
Households in all States and Territories received their second instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate this quarter. Households in some States and Territories did not receive their first instalment of the Commonwealth EBRF rebate in the September quarter due to differences in the roll out schedule. The fall this quarter was driven by these households receiving two $75 instalments of the Commonwealth rebate in the December quarter.
Excluding the rebates, electricity prices would have risen by 0.2 per cent in the December 2024 quarter.
The following graph shows the impact the rebates have had on the Electricity series in the CPI since the September 2023 quarter.

No problem, i do not blame you
But basically, not really a fall..
That will prevent salary increases and pension indexations, so all benefit gor the gov.
Who knows, that electricity bill bonus might even save money...
And transfering taxpayer money into big power companies and RE lobbies ...